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- Year 2020 - Way Ahead - Predictions, Analysis

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Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 464
CORONA IMPACT

REMITTANCE IN - EFFECT
1. Nepal receives over 1000 arab of remittance (In Descending Order - India, Saudi, UAE, Malasia, Japan and so on)
2. On an average 80% is spent in CONSUMPTION & 20% in Saving
3. Hence 800 Arab goes in consumption. They buy clothes, buy mobiles, buy cements/bricks/rebars for house building, buys furniture, buys motorcycles, buys cars etc.
&
4. The 800 Arab and Business in Nepal makes least 20% profit (160 arab) and govt takes least 20% as direct and indirect tax (160 arab)

Hence if remittance stops or slides or decreases than govt will lose revenue substantially and also all the business that sells consumable items will be in trouble including SHIVM......Also as Business will be in trouble their ability to pay to bank also goes in trouble and BANKS will also suffer.....


REMITTANCE OUT - Effect
1. All the students shall have to bring money from home now to meet their daily expenses. This will take out big chunk of money from banks.
2. Also as many of them will be paid low or shall be given unpaid leave. Their capacity to remit in will decrease and they will hold money with themselves to safeguard their needs.


MONEY HOARDING
1. People will take cash from bank (some amount like 1 lakh for middle class and 25k for upper underprivileged class) which can roughy amount to 2 kharab in aggregate (if situation escalates) and will keep it as contingency fund.
2. Huge amount will vanish from banks
3. This will give rise to liquidity crisis.

....ALL WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SEVERE AS DAYS INCREASES BY......With USA extending shutdown till APRIL END - what will happen here shall be determined by severity of CORONA in south asian countries......However all will have adverse effect on Market...Banks profits to fall by 25% if shutdown extends only to chaitra in status quo regulatory framework......

...Baki Ishwor Ko Leela....
« Last edit by पूजीभैरव on Tue Mar 31, 2020 6:21 pm. »
Member
Registered: May 2014
Posts: 23
Thrash ta hune nai ho hajur. Yo jyan po pahile thrash hola jasto bho.
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 464
Full Effort will be there for price level maintenance..
If that effort wins, it wont be thrashed
But significant surges is not possible now

But yet to be seen how fundamentally this stuff will injure the economy and companies
if fundamentally crosses the limit than the people who will be putting effort will also resort to selling

...BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA...
Member
Registered: Jun 2013
Posts: 55
Khoi pitai hunchha ki uthai hunchha. BSE ma thrashed pachhi uthne kram jari chha. Lock down ma pani continue garna saknu murkhata ho ki technology friendly vaisakeko ho Indian market seems surprising.
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 464
MARKET is READY to be THRASHED HARD once OPENED



....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA....
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 464
With India going in STAGE 2 of COVID

Intermittent rallies in a bear market are often
Dead cat bounces are seen often in falls
Its wait & watch mode again
PURCHASE SHOULD BE PAUSED FOR NOW

...BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA....
« Last edit by पूजीभैरव on Fri Mar 20, 2020 8:09 pm. »
Member
Registered: May 2014
Posts: 23
"With the pressure from media and some of the big players who are trapped in recent bull, the possibility you indicated seems possible."

"If NEPSE is shut down, then people may not convert share into cash which they require for emergency use. This is going to create another disaster who ve invested all there savings in share market."

"Risk of disease spread by opening NEPSE is minimal because most of the traders use online or phone call."

As always your comments /analysis are always impressively splendid.
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 680
@PB - If shuts down than TODAY might be final opportunity to BUY or final opportunity to SELL.
कोरोना कहर : अमेरिकी सेयरबजारका ट्रेडिङ फ्लोरहरु बन्द हुने, नेपालमा के गर्ने ?
With the pressure from media and some of the big players who are trapped in recent bull, the possibility you indicated seems possible.
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 464
@DUBOSI

As a pure personal opinion, MARKET SHOULD REMAIN OPEN, should not be shut down


....baki ishwor ko leela...
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 680
If NEPSE is shut down, then people may not convert share into cash which they require for emergency use. This is going to create another disaster who ve invested all there savings in share market. Either NEPSE make adjustment to borrow cash by locking the shares in DEMAT account.
Difficult to choose both options.
Risk of disease spread by opening NEPSE is minimal because most of the traders use online or phone call.
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 464
V Pattern
Crash fall THAN Sharp Rise
1. NEPSE to go down
2. NEPSE might also undergo shutdown
3. If shuts down than TODAY might be final opportunity to BUY or final opportunity to SELL...Noone knows what happens after shutdown opens or how long this will last....Only time will tell...

...Also some ECONOMIC PACKAGE will come....and THERE WILL BE INTERVENTION IN INTEREST RATE and it will have POSITIVE IMPACT ON NEPSE AS WELL....

....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA....
« Last edit by पूजीभैरव on Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:15 am. »
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 464
AS SAID EARLIER, MARKET IS IN PANIC MODE
1. And each downfall is a buy opportunity
2. And as said earlier buy should be slowly and steadily
3. No need to fear on undervalued companies

...BUFFET GURU has said, BUY when everyone else is selling and sell when everyone else is buying......It is quite hard to control sentiments and maintain composure and engage in the strategy....But the strategy works....After selling above 1600 level (Please see my post, FEB 20 was the day when i again reminded you of charity, as sell means charity)....This is beautiful opportunity again.....Good News of Corona In Control will emerge soon in coming days...... ....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA....
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 680
Case burden of CORONA is rapidly increasing in MIDDLE EAST. More than 2000 nepalese workers are under QUARANTINE.
[b]रेमिट्यान्सको ठुलै हिस्सा ओगटेको नेपाली अर्थतन्त्रलाई यस पटक झट्का लाग्ने निश्चितप्रायः छ
कोरोनाको कहर : उद्योगीले सहुलियत माग्दा वित्तीय क्षेत्रमा तनाव

प्रा.डा. चन्द्रमणि अधिकारी कोरोना भाइरसले अर्थतन्त्रमा सात रेक्टरको भूकम्प ल्याइसकेको उल्लेख गर्छन्/उनका अनुसार अहिले सबैभन्दा बढी प्रभावित होटल क्षेत्र हो /
https://www.onlinekhabar.com/2020/03/844636
https://ratopati.com/story/122039/2020/3/16/corona-effect-in-economy
What is the rescue plan of our GOVERNMENT ?
If industrialist don't pay there liabilities, BANKING sector will accumulate huge lump of NPL which can cripple our economy in long term. Lets see 3rd Q result of banking and hotel sector.
« Last edit by Dubosi7 on Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:30 pm. »
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 464
SAID IN THE MORNING 7:06 AM
Be ATTENTIVE Market Will Show Some Twists & Turns

And TODAY it was
- DOWN
- UP
- DOWN
- UP
- DOWN
- UP
- DOWN
- UP

......I hope you guys were ATTENTIVE about it....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA.....
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 464
Now That The Entire Market Is In Panic Mode

It is time to gradually enter the market
Entry Should Be Slow Adding More Each Day As Market Falls
Be Attentive Market Will Show Some Twists & Turns
Buying The Companies That Will Go Undervalued

Avoid Overvalued Companies



....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA.....
« Last edit by पूजीभैरव on Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:13 am. »
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 464
@KOHINOOR

Its a personal choice whether to step in or not.
But its a wait and watch for most of them
Also the worldwide market fell as WHO declared the corona as EPIDEMIC few hours ago.


...BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA.....
« Last edit by पूजीभैरव on Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:52 am. »
Member
Registered: Jul 2017
Posts: 5
Puji Bhairav jee. Is it time to reenter the market, have sold all the shares held for last 5 years, or should wait more???
Member
Registered: Jul 2017
Posts: 5
Puji Bhairav jee. Is it time to reenter the market, have sold all the shares held for last 5 years, or should wait more???
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 464
PATIENCE....
TIME WILL COME AGAIN TO PUSH ALL MONEY INTO THE MARKET..
LET THE MARKET TAKE ITS COURSE..
STOCK MARKET GIVES LOT OF OPPORTUNITIES...


....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA....
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 464
No Significant surge in NEPSE for sometime.

...BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA...
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 464
SHARE03

Said few days ago on March 3, 10:26AM

However, There will be some manipulation for sometime.
You can cash that phase to sell now and buy later...(See Below)..


....MFI wont surge for sometime...Especially High Priced MFI will fall and it will drag prices of other mfi also down....But as always, it will again see bullishness...All of them who left their positions, cashed it and did charity, will again re-enter after sometime......Market is Awesome always bringing opportunity.........BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA....
« Last edit by पूजीभैरव on Thu Mar 05, 2020 6:46 am. »
Member
Registered: Jan 2020
Posts: 11
Respected sir
Sir can you guide us what to do for tomorrow. Stop loss exit or hold
Regards
Share03
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 464

MARKET PARTICIPANTS HAS ENTERED INTO WAIT & WATCH SCENARIO
BE ALERT


....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA...
« Last edit by पूजीभैरव on Wed Mar 04, 2020 11:18 am. »
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 464
YESTERDAY 3/2/2020
CORRECTION TO GET WEAKENED FROM TOMORROW,

TODAY 3/3/2020
We could see weakened correction with lot of volatility and swings.



....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA....
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 464
FuturistJee
All the shares that u have are nice ones.
However, There will be some manipulation for sometime.
You can cash that phase to sell now and buy later.
Watch and see the market closely and take decision accordingly.
Some purchases will also be seen after first hour.

...The truth is sooner or later MFI scrips will see again same bullishness....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA....
« Last edit by पूजीभैरव on Tue Mar 03, 2020 10:32 am. »

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