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2500 within 6 months after yuraj k's death or firing.

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Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4591
Big turnover, NEPSE increases

Then turnover slows down a lot, then NEPSE decreases,

Then turnover increases and NEPSE increase pace,

Then turnover slows down ..............





What is going on.......... some group collecting shares or something else .....
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4591
अर्थमन्त्री खतिवडाले भने-अब सेयर बजारका लगानीकर्ताको विश्वास जित्नुहोस्


Tried to destroy share market for 18 month, now wants to increase it but has no idea how to do it.

There is a saying "it is easy to destroy but hard to build".

Just like baburam who destroyed everything hoping to rebuild them, but never could, and he is anti share too.


If he had known what share is, he would never have negative feeling about share market.


Just wasted 22 month of share market and nepal's economy.


The common thing of alchinas whom I have met in my life who have negative feeling about share is "they are dumb negative people but think they are smart/sarbagyani".
Member
Registered: Dec 2016
Posts: 66
Rising Ji,
Yo maile paper bata copy gareko ho. No typos. The datapoint was from 2000-2014.

*The above estimated cointegration relationship of equation shows that real economic activity has insignificant and negative relationship with the stock prices.

Nepal ko case ma I thin share market increased even with low level of economic activities during that time bhayera hola, ali counter intuitive lagne tyo conclusion.

*Finally inflation (CPI) has insignificant influence over the stock prices in the cointegrating vector against the hypothesis of relationship.aAgain the data point from 2000-2014. Zimbabwe/ Venezuela outliers hola sayed. Need to look more for better answer.
But, I can say Venezuelahas most preety women in the world. :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venezuela_at_major_beauty_pageants
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4591
I am no technical guy, I could not even understand half of what you wrote.

If they would listen to me, I would have never let problem happen driven by policy or solved all problems which could be solved through policy.





Let's discuss about principle:

-- *The above estimated cointegration relationship of equation shows that real economic activity has insignificant and negative relationship with the stock prices.

@ Actually economy does impact share market in big but due to sub variable, the impact could be positive or negative.

Like, If economy is booming, then companies business would increase so does profit and price increase.

But, like in Nepal just recently, when economy about to become vibrant, demand of liquidity increased from so called productive sector so that lead to liquidity crisis which lead to increase in interest rate and nrb began to make one after another bad monitory policy, and yuraj k govt to kept on passing bad fiscal policy, which lead to share market crash. It was one of the main reason, we are having market crash for last 4 year.

Now, due to their bad policy, our economy is in trouble, so liquidity demand is low and import is low too which lead to positive balance of payment. And soon there will be liquidity and lower interest rate which will drive share market higher.

In civilized country, if there is economic problem ahead, investors would assume, govt is about to support economy through fiscal and monitory policy so Their market increase.


If govt, NRB had known who to handle higher liquidity demand and vibrant economy, we would not have economic problem right know, which they still have not noticed.





--- *The result of this study also implies that a positive and insignificant relationship between exchange rate and the Nepalese stock market.

@ It does impact but less. And if our market had been open to the world, it would have impacted more.




----------- *Similarly, foreign direct investment and stock returns have a positive and insignificant relationship means if FDI increases then it leads to industrial growth and thereby increases stock prices.


@ Agree. But why it says insignificant relationship????





--------- *There is evidence that stock prices are positively and significantly related to money supply. This finding implies that monetary policy in Nepal has positive impact on stock prices, since
central bank in Nepal uses the credit control (Control money supply) as an intermediate targets in monetary policy framework. The positive relationship may be because increase in money supply increases cash in hand and growth, ultimately earnings and dividends and thereby increasing stock prices.


@ Agreed.






--------- *Interest rate has negative and insignificant relationship with stock prices. The negative relationship is similar to our hypothesis and is consistent with the present value model.argue that short term interest rate are positively related to stock prices (at Short-Term Analysis and Granger Causality). One of the reasons may be increasing in interest rate decreases the lending rate.


@ True in some case but Depends on other variable too. High interest rate also means high inflation, means you should not hold cash so you should invest somewhere. Stock is one of them. Turkey has high interest rate, and I think their stock market was the best performer last year. So was in Pakistan and Zimbabwe.






------------ *Finally inflation (CPI) has insignificant influence over the stock prices in the cointegrating vector against the hypothesis of relationship.


@ You did not type """insignificant"""" by mistake, did you???? (in all above) It has the most impact. In Zimbabwe, Venezuela, due to high inflation, their stock price sky rocketed. During hyper inflation, Or even high inflation, never hold cash.





I am socked to find out they do research but no action. Its amazing, they still have no idea what bank is, what cash is, what credit is.
Member
Registered: Dec 2016
Posts: 66
Eso NRB ko site hereko, euta research paper dekhiyo.

Euta equation bhetiyo.

LNEPSE = f (LGDP, LEXR, LFDI, LM1, LTBR, LCPI)

In equation form this can be written as:
LNEPSE = β0 + β1 LGDP + β2 LXER + β3 LFDI + β4 LM1+ β5 LBTR + β6 LCPI

Where, variables LNEPSE, LGDP, LEXR, LFDI, LM1, LTBR and LCPI denote log values of Nepal stock exchange index, real gross domestic product, NRs/US dollar exchange rate, foreign direct investment, narrow money supply, 91-days Treasury bill rate, and consumer price index. The expected signs of thecoefficients of the variables are:
β1 > 0, β3 > 0, β5 < 0 and others are determined empirically.

Link: https://www.nrb.org.np/ecorev/articles/vol31-1_art3.pdf

Conclusion from the study:

*The above estimated cointegration relationship of equation shows that real economic activity has insignificant and negative relationship with the stock prices.

*The result of this study also implies that a positive and insignificant relationship between exchange rate and the Nepalese stock market.

*Similarly, foreign direct investment and stock returns have a positive and insignificant relationship means if FDI increases then it leads to industrial growth and thereby increases stock prices.

*There is evidence that stock prices are positively and significantly related to money supply. This finding implies that monetary policy in Nepal has positive impact on stock prices, since
central bank in Nepal uses the credit control (Control money supply) as an intermediate targets in monetary policy framework. The positive relationship may be because increase in money supply increases cash in hand and growth, ultimately earnings and dividends and thereby increasing stock prices.

*Interest rate has negative and insignificant relationship with stock prices. The negative relationship is similar to our hypothesis and is consistent with the present value model. This is however consistent to the findings of Shrestha and Subedi(2014) for Nepal; Mukherjee and Naka (1995) for Japan and Ratnapakorn and Sharma (2007) for USA who argue that short term interest rate are positively related to stock prices (at Short-Term Analysis and Granger Causality). One of the reasons may be increasing in interest rate decreases the lending rate. With the high interest rate spread individuals will expect decrease investment in future, which ultimately decreases profit of banking and financial institution which has predominance in the Nepalese stock market thus decreasing the stock price.

*Finally inflation (CPI) has insignificant influence over the stock prices in the cointegrating vector against the hypothesis of relationship.

================================================================================================================
Rising Ji le lekheko paper ho k yo? :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 351
Simrik Jee

Nice Research....
Member
Registered: Dec 2016
Posts: 66
NEPAL GDP 2018: ~$29 Billion
NEPSE Market Cap as of 10/31/2019: ~$13 Billion
less than 50% of GDP

US GDP 2018: ~$20.5 Trillion
US Market Cap as of 11/29/2019: ~$30 Trillion
Around 150% of GDP


Sati ko sarap. :D :D

100% matra pugey ni sabai Bhairab haru ko koti koti avari huney thiye.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4591
शेयर ऋण दिन बैंक धाउन थाले ब्रोकर कार्यालय, सहजै ऋण दिने I did told banks, this day would come so respect all customers.



Time is running out for long term investors.

There will always be chance, but there will never be as great like today.
« Last edit by The Rising Sun on Tue Dec 03, 2019 4:39 pm. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4591
भेन्टिलेटरमा राखिएका प्रधानमन्त्री केपी शर्मा ओलीलाई



is he in coma?????????????
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4591
शेयर बजार केही दिनमा प्रतिफल दिने नगदे बाली होइन: नेप्सेका सिईओ


4 year bhane ko some day ho !@#$!$ paap??????????????






tyo kp oli kaile marcha @#$!!$ chor
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 351
Big Investors - They Come When Interest Rate Falls

For example All the 10 New Life Insurance Companies have equity of 25 arab and they have other reserves as well, 10% of that will come to stock market when they find Bank Interest on Deposits Unattractive

Around 50 arab institutional & corporate money will flow from bank deposit to stock market once int rate level shows signs of decline

And many more ARABS will come from retail investor...as share loans also become cheaper.....

INTEREST RATE SIGNALS are the biggest stuffs in financial world.....

.....BakI iSHWOR kO lEELA....
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4591
Is big investors investing big when there is a chance to invest big at this low?????????


A week ago, there was a big selling in PRVU, and amazingly there were big buyers too.

And when those sellers are gone, so are gone buyers.

So they are long term big investors!!!!!!



Usually, when they hear about big selling coming, buyers disappear. But that did not happen in PRVU.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4591
फागुनसम्म पद जोगाउन अर्थमन्त्रीको दौडधूप, प्रचण्डको रोजाई सुरेन्द्र पाण्डे

प्रचण्डले ओलीसँग पार्टीको कार्यकारी अध्यक्ष आफूलाई दिनुपर्ने र मन्त्रीमण्डल पुनर्गठन हुँदा ठूलै संख्यामा मन्त्रीहरु हेरफेर गरिनुपर्ने अडान लिएका छन्

ओलीले प्रमुख राजनीतिक सल्लाहकारको रुपमा विष्णु रिमाललाई नै निरन्तरता दिएपछि रिमालको दवाबमा अर्थमन्त्री डा. युवराज खतिवडालाई केही महिनाका लागि निरन्तरता दिन खोजिरहेका छन्

बालुवाटारस्थित उच्च स्रोतका अनुसार विष्णु रिमालको सहयोगमा डा. खतिवडाले आफ्नो राष्ट्रिय सभा सदस्यको पदावधि रहुञ्जेलसम्म पदबाट नहटाउन अनुनयविनय गरिरहेका छन्

यो बीचमा प्रचण्ड र माधव नेपाल समूहको राम्रै दवाब परेको खण्डमा डा. खतिवडालाई विदा गरी सुरेन्द्र पाण्डेलाई अर्थमन्त्रीको रुपमा ल्याउने ओलीलाई बाध्यता आइलाग्नसक्ने अन्य केही स्रोतहरु बताउँछन्




















सीआइटी स्टक डिलरको रुपमा नआउने, 'बदमासहरुले पुर्याउने घाटा सहन किन आउनू ?'

कोषस्थित उच्च स्रोतका अनुुसार कोषका कार्यकारी निर्देशक रमण नेपाल वर्तमान अर्थमन्त्री युवराज खतिवडाकै खेमामा रहेकाले समेत नेपाल पूँजी बजारतर्फ आकर्षित हुन नसकेका हुन्

नेपालको सेयर बजार अनुमानभन्दा बाहिर रहेको छ, जुुन विश्व बजारको ट्रेन्ड र सिद्धान्तलाई कुुनै कोणबाट अवलम्बन गरिएको पाइएन
---- that is cause pension fund, life insurance, mutual fund have not been investing amount they are suppose to invest.


कोषस्थित उच्च स्रोतले भन्यो- 'सेयर लगानीकर्ता र म्युुचुुअल फण्ड सर्टटर्म कारोबारी भई प्रफिट बूूक गर्ने गलत होडबाजीले बजार अप्राकृतिक भइरहेको छ
----- its long over due to cancel the license of mutual fund and charge them tax- govt is charging to corporate investor and end their preferential right on IPOs. Only those fund which behave like market maker should get benefits not traders like current mutual fund. Mutual fund should be barred from putting their money in FD, Saving account, treasury, bonds. And should put money only in current account of other bfis- not in the bfi which is managing the mutual fund.



अनि हामी तीनै चलखेल गर्ने लगानीकर्ता र बदमास म्युचुअल फण्डको घाटा सहने पात्रका रुपमा स्टक डिलरका रुपमा आउनुुपर्ने
---- are bau, invest heavily in share market while NEPSE is this low and make mutual funds and others buy at lot higher- 2500-3500.


कोषका अधिकारीहरु पछिल्लो समय बजार संचालक नेप्से र नियामक धितोपत्र बोर्डकै अधिकारीहरुको शंकास्पद गतिविधिबाट समेत सन्तुष्ट छैनन्












बालुवाटारमा मन्त्रिपरिषद बैठक जारी, मन्त्रीहरु हट्ने !

मन्त्रीहरुलाई सामूहिक रुपमा विदाई गर्नेबारे छलफल हुने बुझिएको छ
« Last edit by The Rising Sun on Tue Nov 19, 2019 5:43 pm. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4591
म अलोकप्रिय बनेपनि देशलाई अफ्ठ्यारोमा पार्दिनँ : अर्थमन्त्री खतिवडा

Yuraj k has wasted almost two year and still talk big.

Instead of result, real economy is into deeper and deeper recession.




This is sati ko sarap.

I have been predicting correctly and giving right advice and country does not take me seriously.

While yuraj k have been wrong one after another and he is called biddwan.





I think, yuraj k had said at least twice, aba share market bad cha but never even tried to enter positive territory. While, I am the only One who predicted current share market collapse about 4 year ago.


Yuraj k said during his first policy and program that country was in fiscal trouble and six month later, he said things are brought on track. He said, his first year will be tougher and from second year, thing will start to fly.

While, I said, His first year will look good due to previous year's work and second year will be worse.

I turned out to be right.



I have been correct dozens of times while yuraj k has been wrong almost always.

And he is the biddwan?



This is sati ko sarap.








मूर्खलाई बढि महत्त्व दिने मानिस सधै असफल

In the case of Nepali society, its the nepal society who has become failure for centuries cause they have given importance to idiots and distinctive mind like yuraj k, baburam bhatterai.


While ignoring me.








चाणक्य नीतिमा लेखिएको छ -
मूर्खा यत्र न पूज्यन्ते धान्य यत्र सुसंचितम्|
दंपतो: कलहो नास्ति तत्र श्री: स्वयमागता||



चाणक्य नीति ग्रंथको तेस्रो अध्यायको २१ औँ श्लोकमा यस्तो भनिएको छ
यस श्लोकमा चाणक्यले भनेका छन् जुन ठाउँमा मूर्खाको पूजा हुँदैन, केवल ज्ञानिलाई मात्र सम्मान गरिन्छ
ज्ञानिहरुको कुरालाई लागु गरिन्छ


जहाँ पैसा पर्याप्त मात्रामा भण्डार गरिएको छ (socialist and communist oppose it that is why, those society saw death of 100s of millions due to famine)
अन्नको एक दाना समेत व्यर्थमा फ्याँकिदैन
जुन घरमा श्रीमान्‌-श्रीमती बीच कुनै वाद विवाद हुँदैन
सबै प्रेमसहित बस्छन्
त्यहाँ देवी लक्ष्मी स्वयं आउँछिन्
यस्तो ठाउँमा सधै सुख र समृद्धि रहन्छ
यस्तो घरमा सुख र शान्ति व्याप्त छ (do you know, panchyat used to be a socialist, a pure socialist, like cuba and indian congress and communist are trying to bring back socialism and communism. which Nepal revolted against- panchyat)




जुन मानिस मूर्खहरूको पूजा गर्छ
मूर्खहरूलाई बढी महत्त्व दिन्छ
उसको सेवा गर्छ
त्यस्तो मानिस कहिल्यै सफल हुँदैनन्
सँधै दुखी रहन्छ
(so true, Nepal always considered idiots like yuraj k, baburam biddwan, idiot so called economic expert biddwan....... I mostly always opposed their view, while society supported them in the beginning- monitory policy, fiscal policy, budget----- while I opposed them.

Today I turned out to be correct. And still, Nepali society dont appreciate me, take me seriously. I am the only one in the universe who have been analyzing monitory and fiscal policy and no economist did. Finally data have come forward, even half of economists see it as bad and another half positive......... second half should kill themselves, dharti ko boj).




Yuraj k has wasted 2 precious year of ours, lets not let him speak.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4591
Then congratulations,

You want, 10PE but today's average PE ratio is 11.

You have 10% more than you wish for, which you can sell and put in FD.









If Simrik ji, had deposited 1 lakh in FD 40 year ago, it would be 50 lakh today.

KP Oli/his wife invested 1 lakh in land 40year ago is today worth more than 10 crore.

My father got 15 share of SCB from IPO, he invested 1500, 30 year ago, today he has more than 2000 shares and its worth is 11 lakh.

If he had invested 1 lakh in SCB 30 year ago, today, it would have been 7 crore, in 40 year, probably 18 crore. ......... + lots of cash dividend. And SCB is not the brightest of the bulbs in NEPSE.




So how can we compare investment in share with FD rate????? FD rate keeps on decreasing with development of the economy, while share price will increase with development of the economy.


In a country like Nepal, for me, average PE ratio should be 30/40.











This is how economy works, learn biddwan yuraj k:


Indian benchmark index BSE Sensex hits new high; Index at 40,607 points with Infosys as top gainer

Sc#m Modi, who stole our land and many (why dont nepal publish new map with greater Nepal) decreased tax including on their share market hoping for following:

1: to increase investment

2: to bring more FD on share market

3: to increase money in the hand of investors so that they would invest more and help to increase economic activity

4: they though decreasing tax will reduce capital gain tax, but, it will increase share market and ultimately increase overall capital tax collection. When they decreased tax, for first week, their share market decreased, but after 3 week, it has hit the record.








This is how you make economic/fiscal policy. Decreasing tax will increase tax collection.

Yuraj k increased tax and decreased tax collection. and made people poorer and lost jobs.
Member
Registered: Dec 2016
Posts: 66
Rising Ji, what is you thesis behind 3500? Aba most of the share market is hydro and banking and insurance. Hydro is shit and dead money for a long long time. Banking is very competitive. Valuation is very decent though. Most of the banks are hovering around PE in lower 10s, which is where they are usually in normal times. Kun chahi sector ma potential lock bhayera baseko chha? Where is the growth coming from? Ground reality ta tehi nai ho. We have a socialist government who wants to control the economy. High interest rate is not going anywhere. Budget deficit will only increase from here on, trade deficit will only increase. There is no quick solution to our economic problems. How do you see 3500?
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4591
NEPSE is suppose to be at 3500 at this time.


If all the problems you have pointed out, would have been solved, NEPSE would be at 100000.
Member
Registered: Dec 2016
Posts: 66
All we got is dead money facing the grunt of a bear market.
Economic policy is schizophrenic. High Inflation, huge budget deficit, bad infrastructure, high taxation, arcane regulations, and slow and corrupt bureaucracy, no wonder, the economy and the share market is moribund.
We want FDI, then put all kinds of restrictions and tax burden on new investments.
Second, we bring social insurance programs for people when we have a big hole in the budget just to appease vote banks.
Third, that new scheme for workers is an extra burden on the businesses who now have to pony up 20 percent of a workers' salary to fund the scheme. That is crazy. Even in the US, for social security and medicare, the employers put about 7.5% of a workers' salary. I don't know where our technocrats get their rubbish ideas. No wonder, all the factories in Nepal in the border region has foreign workers. Nepal is 7th largest source of remittance for India. Get that picture in your head. With Indians all over the world, in the richest countries in North America, Europe, Australia and South East Asia, a small Nepal is surprisingly 7th in their inbound remittance list. There is basically no policies to promote local labor.
How many of you wished that you sold two years back and just went on a lengthy vacation. I don't see any relief.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4591
Its been 2 month, no body has posted positive post.


Fundamental says, NEPSE should rise anytime soon.



But without any big buyer entering, it is not possible.


What is going on or nothing is going on????????????
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4591
स्टक डिलरसिपका लागि बास्केट फण्ड खडा हुँदै
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4591
Our friends from south, who were trying to destroy share market by crashing Nepse to teach yuraj k a lesson, till a few weeks ago, surrendered and now started to buy some shares.


Happy Laxmi Puja :)
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4591
सामाजिक सुरक्षा कोषले ऋणपत्र तथा शेयरमा लगानी गर्ने, लगानी कार्यविधि तयार



pension fund, life insurance should invest 25-40% in shares.


Govt, should let pension fund, life insurance and mutual fund to invest up to 5% in international market. max 1% in one country.

And open up Nepal's share market to foreigners.

Let foreigner invest in nepal through their broker and let Nepalese invest in foreign stock through brokers in Nepal.


सामाजिक सुरक्षा कोष- should publish ad that if somebody wants to sell shares worth more than 25 lakh at a time, contact them for negotiation and publish the list of shares they are interested in. Majority of bfis are safe.


They should put buy order at yesterday's price for few thousand kitta every day. If there is no seller, they buy at 1 or 2% higher.


Invest around 2/5 crore per day.




But they should not invest in housing or business complex.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4591
When Yuraj k was in US during World Bank visit last week, they asked him about share market of Nepal.

So they do follow share market of Nepal!!!!!!!!!! They suggested something positive.

Few weeks ago, Chines scholar also talked about share market.



Is not it time for yuraj k to resign after fooling himself about share market. negativity. destroying share market. advising KP Oli, commie politician negativity about share market????????????
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4591
China's Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is asking the country's pension funds & insurers to buy more equities, in an cooridnated bid to shore up the capital market. CSRC chairman Yi Huiman said China is set to sharpen its financial industry competitiveness.










When will Nepal's policy making be freed from pakhes?
Member
Registered: Jan 2018
Posts: 97
I see three things
1. As with everyone, only buying variable is put into the equation, not selling (? deliberately).
2. If the bonus or right shares find their parent shares, only then WACC works. Therefore, these shares must be listed ASAP!
3. If these two are not met, one must hold for a long time before these shares get listed. Whatever the case, risk management is ever greater.

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