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Economic policy for Nepal

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ब्याजदर वृद्धिको निर्णय तत्काल स्थगन गर्न महासंघको माग




Say- NO TO PAYING INTEREST!





Remember what I have been saying: Recession is normal economic cycle while depression, stagflation then hyper inflation is man made.





Internally in Nepal, there are only two domestic factors which pushed for stagflation. And that is high interest rate and Monitory tightening pushed by NRB (and advisers and finance ministry). (There are some international factors which are pushing for stagflation is squeeze of supply chain caused by sanction)



Knock knock
Who is there
Hyper inflation


Cause of high interest rate and unnecessary monitory tightening. Sell has fallen, but to pay high interest rate, they have to increase price of goods and services. And since interest rate is high and demand falling due to stagflation- there wont be new production capacity build up.


And this will lead to hyper inflation. Sell number will fall but they will charge high price. Their expenses will sky rocket too.


And share market will go rocket too.



Say- NO TO PAYING INTEREST!











--------------------------------------

Old Post:


Cash Is Trash




Remember what I have been saying: Recession is normal economic cycle while depression, stagflation then hyper inflation is man made.



Internally in Nepal, there are only two domestic factors which push for stagflation. And that is high interest rate and Monitory tightening pushed by NRB (and advisers and finance ministry). (There are some international factors which are pushing for stagflation is squeeze of supply chain caused by sanction)



What have high interest rate and unnecessary Monitory tightening pushed by NRB, done so far???


- Due to high interest rate and monitory tightening, govt has to spend more money to address loan. Cause of stagflation, govt revenue is down too.

In the past, let's say, govt used to spend 100 for 100 things. Like- 50 for operation, 10 for loan settlement, 40 for development.

Now cause of high interest rate and monitory tightening and lower revenue, govt will be spending 50 on operation, 20 for loan and 25 for development (total=95 things and spent 95money) (today we have stagflation)




** And when there is hyper inflation - govt will be spending 150 on operation (since salary and all expenditure will increase by a lot) and has to borrow 50 to settle loan and no development fund.








- Private sector: Cause of high interest rate and unnecessary monitory tightening. Sell has fallen, but to pay high interest rate, they have to increase price of goods and services. And since interest rate is high and demand falling due to stagflation- there wont be new production capacity build up.


** And this will lead to hyper inflation. Sell number will fall but they will charge high price. Their expenses will sky rocket too.












- We have already seen in Coke: Coke price used to be 225 few months ago, today its 265. Almost close to 20% increase. Their sell no is low, but revenue is up. Hyper inflation.



- I think last time, barbar's rate was 150 now it's 200. 1/3 increment. As per nepali expert, when demand is down, price is suppose to go down, but it is increasing. I believe people are cutting their hair after longer time.










When interest rate is 15-17%, and demand is low, what would people do- increase price of everything to pay interest. Meaning hyper inflation. All caused by NRB policy of super high interest rate and unnecessary tightening of monitory policy.






Some are saying this will lead to super high share market. True, just like Zimbabwe, Venezuela, srilanka, pakistan.

Like I have been saying for 6-8 year- when banks give high interest on deposit, it wont increase your wealth, it will destroy your wealth.

Those who have deposited money in bank, holding cash in greed for high interest .... their cash will turn into trash.



And we all know, our pakhes running country- politicians, bureaucracy, nrb, and their advisers- they will advise opposite and act and advice to increase interest rate to tackle hyper inflation.






This is how 'Cash will turn into trash and share market- super high'. And dont forget to thank NRB.



NRB's super high interest rate and unnecessary tightening of monitory policy has already pushed Nepal into stagflation and soon start hyper inflation.









SECOND IN GOD said: 'Pakhe le des chalaune haina.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 6342
I think last time, barbar's rate was 150 now it's 200. 1/3 increment. As per nepali expert, when demand is down, price is suppose to go down, but it is increasing. I believe people are cutting their hair after longer time.









Cash Is Trash




Remember what I have been saying: Recession is normal economic cycle while depression, stagflation then hyper inflation is man made.



Internally in Nepal, there are only two domestic factors which push for stagflation. And that is high interest rate and Monitory tightening pushed by NRB (and advisers and finance ministry). (There are some international factors which are pushing for stagflation is squeeze of supply chain caused by sanction)



What have high interest rate and unnecessary Monitory tightening pushed by NRB, done so far???


- Due to high interest rate and monitory tightening, govt has to spend more money to address loan. Cause of stagflation, govt revenue is down too.

In the past, let's say, govt used to spend 100 for 100 things. Like- 50 for operation, 10 for loan settlement, 40 for development.

Now cause of high interest rate and monitory tightening and lower revenue, govt will be spending 50 on operation, 20 for loan and 25 for development (total=95 things and spent 95money) (today we have stagflation)




** And when there is hyper inflation - govt will be spending 150 on operation (since salary and all expenditure will increase by a lot) and has to borrow 50 to settle loan and no development fund.








- Private sector: Cause of high interest rate and unnecessary monitory tightening. Sell has fallen, but to pay high interest rate, they have to increase price of goods and services. And since interest rate is high and demand falling due to stagflation- there wont be new production capacity build up.


** And this will lead to hyper inflation. Sell number will fall but they will charge high price. Their expenses will sky rocket too.












- We have already seen in Coke: Coke price used to be 225 few months ago, today its 265. Almost close to 20% increase. Their sell no is low, but revenue is up. Hyper inflation.



- I think last time, barbar's rate was 150 now it's 200. 1/3 increment. As per nepali expert, when demand is down, price is suppose to go down, but it is increasing. I believe people are cutting their hair after longer time.










When interest rate is 15-17%, and demand is low, what would people do- increase price of everything to pay interest. Meaning hyper inflation. All caused by NRB policy of super high interest rate and unnecessary tightening of monitory policy.






Some are saying this will lead to super high share market. True, just like Zimbabwe, Venezuela, srilanka, pakistan.

Like I have been saying for 6-8 year- when banks give high interest on deposit, it wont increase your wealth, it will destroy your wealth.

Those who have deposited money in bank, holding cash in greed for high interest .... their cash will turn into trash.



And we all know, our pakhes running country- politicians, bureaucracy, nrb, and their advisers- they will advise opposite and act and advice to increase interest rate to tackle hyper inflation.






This is how 'Cash will turn into trash and share market- super high'. And dont forget to thank NRB.



NRB's super high interest rate and unnecessary tightening of monitory policy has already pushed Nepal into stagflation and soon start hyper inflation.









SECOND IN GOD said: 'Pakhe le des chalaune haina.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 6342
REMEMBER::::::: 'Second to GOD' once said- "Recession is normal economic phenomenon, Depression is Man made".










Say- NO TO PAYING INTEREST!



Lenders should not pay interest until- 40% interest is refunded and interest is reduced to 10%.

I think, as per law, loan shark cant charge more than 10% interest on loan. Somebody need to sue banks and NRB against current interest rate on loan.



Say- NO TO PAYING INTEREST!
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 6342
NO TO INTEREST PAYMENT
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 6342
Problem in Nepal started as 'a foreign currency crisis', now have turned into 'deep economic crisis' by NRB (Dont forget finance ministry and all those advisers and media).


JUST LIKE I WARNED.




- Petrol and diesel consumption have halved (some diesel customer may have gone to electricity by half is not possible)
- Sherbahadur said, 'govt cant even provide salary to bureaucrats'.


Does not this sign mean total collapse? There is tighter restriction on import and customer does not care. Does not this also mean, customer is broke.



And 'Other than me' hardly any one been saying anything.


When things were good- when we only had foreign currency crisis' so many fake expert and media were giving negative advice. NRB were barking negativity.

Its like they were well organized to destroy Nepal's economy. You do see that, if Nepal's economy doubles, RAW/CIA has to double their investment in Nepal to buy same no of doggo.

May be that is why their doggo always been there to create crisis in Nepal.



Now, all of those alchinas are hiding in a hole.




That guy, whose whole family is professional economic dalal of dalal congress, who became hero after UN sent him to give advise to srilanka, where is he? where is his advice or solution to current problem.


When he was in power position, Nepal were facing similar problem srilanka is facing. But he said nothing, he had no idea what was going on in Nepal, but same guy was invited by UN to give advice to Srilanka.

Nepal is facing total economic collapse, and he is no where to be found. May be someday soon, World bank will pay him to advice some country who is in similar economic problem like current Nepal.


He neither has experience, nor known to be intelligent and still UN hired him. Why? Is CIA trying to create young leader in Nepal. Cause before his srilanka visit, he was kind of a no body except for professional dalal in dalal congress.










VOTE RIGHT, Nepal's economy is in deep crisis created by NRB, government, advisers. I am the only one who knows economics in Nepal (there could be some hidden expert, but non among media faces). We need new power in govt who needs to draft permanent 'monitory policy guideline' and 'NRB policy'.
Member
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Posts: 6342
Economy on right track: Nepal Rastra Bank Governor Adhikari




Is this suppose to be a joke?


Nepal is the only place where incompetent are not humiliated.
Member
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Posts: 6342
Zoltan: "This Is What The New World Order Will Look Like" After Europe's Minsky Moment "Where $2 Trillion Of German Value Depends On $20 Billion Of Russian Gas"








This is what Economics boys!

I have been talking about fundamentals like this, I have been warning about this. Not just in europe and west but also in Nepal. And there is chain reaction too.


NRB, bureaucracy, fake expert, wanna be expert in media and social media destroyed economy of Nepal even after my warning.
« Last edit by The Rising Sun on Mon Aug 29, 2022 1:42 pm. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 6342
चालु पूँजी कर्जाको नयाँ व्यवस्थाले निजी क्षेत्र सशंकित, कर्जाको सीमा निर्धारण गर्दा २५ प्रतिशत मात्र गरिनु अव्यवहारिक: महासँघ


:D :D :D :D :D :D


In politics, there is a saying:

First they came for X, I said nothing.
Then they came for Y, I again said nothing.
Then they came for me, Nobody said nothing.



Same with Nepal's economy, share market. Every time, during previous economic crisis again in this economic crisis, first sector they blamed is 'share market'. Not just them, those criminal, black marketer also blamed 'share market'. No NRB is also going after business.



Is this funny or something tragic?



NRB been attacking one after another but problem is not solving. Why? Cause if you try to fix something, which did not create the problem, problem wont be fixed. Instead, new problem arises. Now, whole economy is crashing- proof: collapse in petrol and diesel demand.


Dont tell me, I did not warn about this crisis.

Cause I am Second to GOD.




Last crisis, liquidity crisis was caused by high import lead by over investment in business like hotel, cement factory etc. I kept on saying, the liquidity crisis was cause of over investment, and govt need to slow it down, dont hit the economy with tighter monitory policy and high interest rate.


But they kept on saying: it is due to high bank loan. (every idiot in nrb, government, adviser, media, social media kept on saying that).

What I taught them last time, they learned this time. They are now saying, liquidity crisis is caused by high import.
(liquidity crisis is also caused by govt policy, monitory policy, NPL etc).













This time, also same liquidity crisis, we are facing. This time it is cause of high price of commodity in international market due to sanction and war. But in Nepal, they first blamed on share market, now NRB is hitting on every sector.


Current, main cause of liquidity crisis is lack of export. Instead of solving this problem, they are hitting every sector and have already destroyed the whole economy.
(I thought, they are going to increase export of cement, but I have not heard of it. Current finance minister and finance secretary and prime minister is destroying Nepal's economy and selling Nepal.)




May be they will learn current problem in next crisis from me. There are dozens of major fundamentals in economy. If they learn one in every 3-5 year, how long would it take them to learn about all?



All problem is cause by not listening to me. Instead they listen to dumbs from media and social media and criminal dumb experts. I tried to silence them all, but could not cause I am not getting help.




UNLESS YOU IDENTIFY THE MAIN PROBLEM AND FIX IT, YOU WONT SOLVE THE PROBLEM, INSTEAD CREATE NEW PROBLEMS.
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कडाईले घट्यो आयात, चालु आर्थिक वर्षको पहिलो महिना १ खर्ब ३१ अर्बको मात्रै सामान आयात







If they had tightened import when I advised them, our liquidity crisis would have been solved 9 month back and it would have prevented total economic collapse. Instead, they wanted to decreased import by destroying our economy and killing nepalese.


Govt needs to tighten import for another 3/4 month. Then slowly loosen it.




Few days ago, I read that our petrol and diseal consumption have decreased by half. Wanna be expert in media and social media may tell you, this is a good thing.

NO, this is the sign of 'the total collapse of economy of nepal'.


NRB and fake economic advisers have destroyed economy of Nepal.



sati ko sarap.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 6342
कोभिडकै अवस्थामा अर्थतन्त्र, बजार खुला छ तर सबै आर्थिक तनावमा, व्यवसायीक क्षेत्र खुम्चिँदै



Dont tell me I did not warn about this. Even more importantly, I am the only one who warned about this.

I know, dumb are not just dumb, their memory is also bad. :D




Blame dont just go to- NRB, governor, d governors, top nrb officials, finance secretary, tax secretary, finance minister, pm, their advisers, fake economist in media/social media, wanna be economist in social media/media but also on media.



I have always been saying, the biggest criminal in Nepal are:
1: Media
2: Judiciary
3: Police




Media did not just publish alchina negative views/advise from fake economist to wanna be economist, they also published 'srilanka crisis' 'chinese debt trap' propaganda (china only holds 10% share in srilankan loan- I did a simple check in social media about 'where loan in srilanka went to. I found that chinese loan went to port and port city but i could not find where loan form cia (89%+) loan went to)



All those negative views/advise from fake economist/wanna be economist and srilanka crisis affected decision making of nrb as well as govt.

You need positive action to build a country, and we find negative view/advise every where in Media. One advisor who gave negative advise to nrb, fm, pm is now ambassador to india- who is sher bahadur ko swasni le paleko kukur.




Media is not just no.1 criminal in Nepal, Media also has been destroying society and economy of Nepal.


We better take care of media asap.








How dangerous media could be?

Ukraine war.

I blame media, that cause of media ukraine was is possible.








There is war in ukriane cause people of europe supported it.

People of europe supported it cause they hate Russia.

They have Russia cause CIA/MI6 media told them to hate Russia.






For example- Years before this war, there were, mostly in MI6 media, and CIA media they organized fake assentation by Russia using nerve agent/poison.

The most powerful poison that did not kill three people. But it were in MI6/CIA media every where. I think MI6 was behind those fake poisonings drama. (MI6 involved in white helmet. russia gate, anti china etc)

This is how, by using fake media, they were able to start war in Ukraine.





VOTE RIGHT, media in Nepal is not just no1 criminal in Nepal, they are creating economic, social, foriegn policy problem. We need to take cared of them. We are in last stage, media is one of the culprits. We need to investigate media and their financial backers. Their activities, connection with foriegn and domestic enemies.
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धरानमा बराह सहकारीपीडित आन्दोलित, मेयर साम्पाङको कार्यकक्ष तोडफोड


Every idiot think they know all. Reality is 99% are dumb.


Reason behind collapse of cooperative is- it is impossible business. Only real cooperative which is involved in cooperative like agriculture is sustainable and beneficial.

In Nepal, cooperative is introduced to challenge bfis and for politicians to loot.

Blame these for collapse of cooperative- politicians, nrb, yuraj k ....


People are so dumb, they dont know whom to blame.

Find out which politicians are behind the cooperative. Burn them and their houses, burn NRB, burn yurak k.

Without out working a single day or without investing in life- yuraj k has become owner of 10s of croroe. No surprise how he made all that money.


This yuraj k, who increased tax on every one decreased income tax on cooperative. Burn Yuraj k.
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Newman ji after months or even year.

mero profit ma jana 30-40% badnu parcha. months bhayo share lai secondly follow na ga reko.
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ajkaal ta rising sun ji le mnbbl ko kura garnai chodnu bhayo ta :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
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गाैतमश्री सहकारीका संचालक फरार, स‌याैंकाे संख्यामा वचतकर्ता रकम फिर्ताकाे माग गर्दै विभागमा उजुरी दिँदै

करिब ५ अर्ब रुपैयाँकाे माग दाबी पर्ने अनुमान गरिएकाे छ

सहकारीमा जेष्ठ नागरिक र असक्तहरुकाे पनि ठूलाे लगानी छ





- Remember I warned about this.

- BTW, I dont think, they scape with money. They may have engulfed commission from projects like housing, but I did not think they ran away with money, they may have ran away with some money that was left but not all money. They had to un away cause that company bankrupted. In Nepal, bankrupted means promoter stealing all money, which means, promotes have to run away or people will burn them alive.


- Remember, I had been saying this will happen, cause all the investment they make are bad ones and ultimately it will crash. Their interest is too high (today, banks' interest rate is similar. blame NRB if bank meets cooperative fate. NRB is forcing banks to become like cooperative).

- Cooperative is like this cause of politician, political party. Mainly UML. Others too. Dont forget Yuraj k. UML's politicians, cadres used to be in payroll of ngo/ingo. Since it is gone, they today rely for their living on loot from cooperative.

Remember, Yuraj k increased tax on almost everyone but reduced tax on cooperative. Cause cooperative belongs to politician. Cooperative is suppose to be non profit but he reduced tax for non profit. He is suppose to decrease tax on profit oriented organization to lure investment but he did opposite. Cause he is criminal working for politician.


- Cooperative take deposit wit high interest rate and invest in housing, hospitals, schools, shopping center and many which all will go bankrupt. None of those business can be successful with expensive capital. No business could be run wit expensive capital. No body can afford expensive loan. But NRB is forcing expensive loan to all. End game- all will go bankrupt cause of NRB.

But those business wont look like bankrupt cause of account book, they will officially go bankrupt when money runs out. Its like Ponzi scheme.



- They, including NRB are forcing bfis to become like cooperative. They are forcing NRB to give high interest on deposit. It will ultimately lead to collapse of every thing and prevent people from investing in business (we went through this process last time too, again this time. Both time, NRB forced them).

Morons, I hear in media, social media to increase interest on deposit and attract deposit? Brain dead piece of Sh!t.


- When bfis go bankrupt, dont forget to burn governors, d governors and advisers (from past and present).

- You want your deposit to be safe or you want high interest. High interest always means you will loose, for guarantee.


- Instead of investing, people are money are putting money in FD due to high interest rate. Nepal is hopeless all cause of NRB and their advisers.









VOTE RIGHT to bring in intelligent people, not like yuraj k who comes in power to serve politicians and criminals and CIA.
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मनि सप्लाइ रोक्ने टाइट मौद्रिक नीति, उद्यमीदेखि अर्थशास्त्रीसम्मले भने, 'अब महँगी थेग्न तयार हुनुस्'


Finally they are learning. Low money supply, high rate means high inflation.

Normally it depends upon variables. In Nepal, it means high inflation in most of the case.

Tragedy will be, from bureaucracy and fake expert side and patrakars pretending to be economist and wanna be expert from social media, when inflation rises due to NRB policy, they will tell NRB to increase interest and decrease money supply to control that inflation. :D


In the world, countries those have hardly any influence in international inflation, they raise their interest rate to protect their currency.

In countries like US and China, they raise rate so that people would sell their commodity futures and price of raw material would fall, this would decrease demand.


But in Nepal, NRB or fake experts are simply dumb.



In economics, up to certain level certain move will give you certain result. After certain level same move will give you different result.


Last time, when interest rate is high, those with money did not want to invest, and they would rather deposit at the bank, which had harmed productivity and the economy..... now, people forgot about that and they are going for same mistake by raising interest rate. 4king apes.


With 1% increase in interest, they will raise rate by 5%.

Last year, interest rate increased by a lot and credit was halted, did it decrease inflation?? NO.

They are repeating same expecting different result.
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Registered: Oct 2013
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How to solve problem?


First thing first. To solved problem, first of all, you need to find/see the problem.
Then find the reason behind the problem.
Then comes right solution.


(In my case, I dont only see/find problem, I predict it. As for solution, not a big challenge for me.)




Current problem is liquidity crisis. Foreign currency crisis.





Reasons behind the crisis:
This liquidity crisis is also created by foreign currency crisis. Which is foreign currency left Nepal more than entered Nepal, which is balance of payment crisis. Also by monitory policy when changed from ccd ratio to cd ratio.

(Other reason liquidity crisis is created with monitory policy, fiscal policy, rise in non performing loan.)


Crowd is saying, liquidity crisis/dollar crisis is created by import crisis. Not really, it is created by export crisis.



CD ratio: Remember, before NRB changed CCD ratio to CD ratio, some banks CD ratio was close to 86% which was under control as per NRB's policy.
As soon as NRB changed CD ratio into CCD ratio of 90%, then the very next day, such banks CD ratio was well over 90%. So this liquidity crisis was created by NRB. And soon NRB blamed them on Banks and threatened them.






How to solve liquidity crisis?
Increase export- only major short and long term solution.. Change to CCD ratio. Change monitory policy like undoing/making share investment as liquid assets.


I have already advised about how to increase export few weeks ago. Shor term- cement export, doubling what is being exported. To long term- finding new products, choosing those products that consume high electricity would be the best and others.





Media needs to stop making noise that current liquidity crisis is created by import crisis. It is not, it is created by export crisis.
If we focus on wrong reason and forget right solution, problem will not be solved.




And sudden increase in import is caused by higher price of fuel. And it is not in the hand of Nepal. And it also increased inflation, which is also not due to Nepal, so stop trying to fight inflation through monitory policy. By increasing interest.



If you want to decrease inflation, you have to decrease price of import and to do it, reduce tax.

High interest rate means more inflation.

High international inflation is due to US sanction and printing money. Supply side inflation can be dealt with by increasing supply not by increasing interest.

Countries are increasing their interest to prevent their currency from falling due to US increasing interest. Not to decrease demand.


End war. Solve inflation problem.

US could give Russia weapon coordinates of Ukraine, stop supplying more weapon. War will end and solved inflation and soon they will be out of recession within a year. If not, depression.



Nepal has nothing to do with inflation, and should not try to fix with high interest. One thing Nepal can do is go after source of black money and stop govt from taking loan to loot.
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re post...




I did not want to give advice for monetary policy since they know everything, but due to crisis ....

- Go back to CCD ratio.
- Bring down interest rate.
- Tight import for 6 more month.
- Make 1 kharab available for export based industries at 3% interest for 5 year.
- Reverse all share related bad policies.
- Slowly lose tighter loan policy.
- Let everyone invest in share with capital and reserve including cooperative. NRB should invest too.
- Accept share investment as liquid assets.



Who gets export loan:
- Those who want to open factory who will be exporting at least 25% of production capacity.
- Those who been exporting and wants to expand production and at least 25% of extra production capacity should be exported.
- What if they are able to export only 20% (80% of target)? They should pay interest 3% on 80% loan and 8% on 20% loan.



To solve foreign currency crisis:
Short term- Export cement like they been talking about and motivate those who been exporting to export more.
Long term- Within 3 year, add more export oriented factories and new products. Go for those industry that uses electricity.





While, every idiot been talking about factories to create jobs, while I kept on maintaining that in Nepal, factories should be used to bring in foriegn currency and reduce exist of foreign currency... job creation through manufacturing in Nepal should only be secondary policy. I always knew about current foreign currency crisis, Nepal be facing. In Nepal, we need to import raw material, semi finished product, parts, almost finished product ..... for all those we need foreign currency. Out only way is we need to export. We need to balance export and import. Saying, we should only export, it does not work like that.



We need to reduce tax (including import tax) to bring down cost of doing business, to bring down cost of living so that we would be able to compete in international market. No body going buy our product if we tax high on their product. IF tax is high, cost of living in Nepal stay high which would increase cost of production too.











I had been saying I have a plan to increase Nepal's GDP to 200 kharab but I dont want congress and communist to success. But due to crisis, I have, above, disclosed part of my plan.
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On budget day, plane crashed. I said, this budget will lead to something bad. When such thing happen, I mostly focus on share market, economy or society.

But after the budget, I did not see any big problem.

Now, Finance minister has resigned. So this is what that accident was trying to tell me, which I did not see that time.

I thought, after the budget, 'may be this time, the plane crash is just an accident, coincident'. Turned out NO. It was a message.

All the accidents on special day has always lead to something bad. :( :(



-------
Said on: Sun May 29, 2022 12:14 pm



Last year, on the day of Monitory policy, something bad happened, probably bus accident, and I did say, that monitory policy will harm and the governor is alchina.

And that monitory policy destroyed the economy, share market and banking. Some People think this is superstition, really even after proof, same happened when KP oli became PM, I think.



Today is budget day and a plane has been out of contact. Hope plane is safe, which is not possible or somebody stop the budget.

Our village idiot finance minister may increase tax, probably in import, and destroy out economy and exporting capacity and manufacturing capacity just to make some criminal industry happy cause they will get to increase their profit margin.



-----------------------------------------------
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Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 6342
copper: 15% down yoy
steel: 8.3% down yoy
Iron ore: 45% down yoy
wheat: up 28% yoy, 28% down monthly
sunflower oil: 41% up yoy, 19% down monthly
Urea: 53% up yoy,


Nepal has been building multi purpose irrigation, they say it will complete in 2080s. I saw in youtube, Nepal's pride projects, It seem like they are using only one machine per type.

It seems like they will take 8/10 yr to complete the project.
If total cost is 15kharab, and they invest 1kharab extra, they could increase machinery by 10time each and complete in half the time. This could save interest in 3/5kharab and we could get extra production of 5-10kharab. They are working slowly to loot Nepal.
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Registered: Dec 2016
Posts: 172
Posted this October last year.

1. Electricity Shortage
2. Possible Dollar Shortage
3. Inflation
4. Possible load shedding during winter

If you are leveraged, its time to lessen your exposure. Inflation worldwide will be running high unless we enter in a serious recession due to slowdown in China. Oil prices will probably end the year over $90 per barrel, next summer it may get to $120ish. LPG gas is up 126% YTD. Coal up 196% YTD. Crude oil up 70% YTD. Copper up 22% YTD. Most of the heavy industries in Nepal use these commodities. Nepal Oil Corporation will post historic losses this fiscal year if it doesn't raises fuel prices. The price difference in Nepal and India is Nrs 20, hence smuggling fuel to India will reach another level. This government will not dare to raise fuel prices due to coming elections. Serious fuel supply shock coming due to decreasing capex by oil majors in the West. OPEC is most likely bluffing about its spare capacity, and will most likely enjoy the higher fuel prices. Saudi needs 80 dollar oil to balance its budget. As fuel prices go up, the INR will lose its value against the dollar. Hence, imports to Nepal will be costlier as we are pegged to INR. USD will likely make a huge gain against EURO, YEN and INR.

Overall, it looks like we are fucked. Not sure what is NRB thinking? We haven't had tourism dollars for almost two years now. Remittance growth probably is not as sustainable for the next few years, as we haven't exported labor at the same pace last two years. AID dollars will lessen, as the West will be fucked by the rising inflation too.

Few steps the government can do for next 1-2 year term to escape this bout of inflation and conserve foreign currency.

1. Stop new hydro projects. Complete those that are in various stages, complete the transmission lines. India won't be buying our surplus electricity unless its from projects where Indians have invested.
2. Stop imports of luxury vehicles.
3. Stop imports of foreign wines/spirits/beer.
4. Put restrictions on imports of cereals/grains/palm oil/soybeans from Argentina. Most of them are being smuggled to India.
5. Put special units to stop gold smuggling from TIA.
6. Jail Hundiwalas. Have police special forces go after them.
7. Open the country to people who are vaccinated. Make VISA free if they spend more than 15 days in the country. 8. Improve process for folks willing to go to S. Korea, Japan and Israel. These countries are clamoring for Nepalese labor.
9. Start landing buddhists from around the world in Lumbini.
10. Start campaign to reduce consumption of imported goods.
=======================================================================
It was not that hard of predictions to make even for a little interested observer. But, our policy makers are asleep at the wheels. Govt has made some adjustments but they are not enough. New focus for short term should be on,

1. Jail hundiwalas. Unleash the whole law enforcement on this. Go after under invoicers.
2. Stop Gold Smuggling from TIA.
3. Ration petrol for the next six months, not diesel. Even America did this in 1970s. Government should buy 10% less petrol from IOC than last year, period. I know rationing brings a lot more problem of black market. But, if done in a smart way, it will change consumers' behaviors and bring more awareness about the dire situation we may be in the near future. I suggest mandating fuel stations of allowing a certain amount of petrol per fill. Institute odd/even for private vehicles for a couple of months. Encourage ride sharing.
4. Again the logjam for sending workers to Japan, Korea and Israel should be removed. Government should start a task force for promoting and facilitating employment in these countries. These three countries are good for Nepalese workers, and most come back richer and gaining skills.
5. Tourists/Tourists/Tourists: Nepal Airlines should start routes from Bangkok to Lumbini ASAP.
6. Stop subsidizing LPG gas.
7. Government should start a special powerful task force to complete several irrigation projects in Western Nepal. Rani Kumaiya and Sikta and Mahakali irrigation projects should be completed within the next two years. This will help with food sufficiency.
8. Tighten imports of unnecessary items.
9. Awareness. For ****'s sake, banks are giving double digit interest rates on savings and people are still consuming? What will stop folks from consuming? Lets start a societal awareness program of less consumption, starting from politicians and public figures.
10. Beg Bangladesh/China for fertilizers. Crop yield will be fucked up this year if we don't get fertilizers soon.

The above are just short term fixes.

Long term,
1. We need more electrification of our transportation.
2. Completing Fast track, strategic tunnels and several main road projects would lead to lesser consumption of fuel.
3. We need to focus on irrigating our Terai belt, produce crops/staples three times a year. Rain water harvesting in hills and vegetables and fruit production.
4. Infrastructure around main Tourist hubs, Kathmandu, Pokhara, Lumbini, Everest, Annapurna routes should be maintained properly. We should try to do 2 million tourists by 2025. 3 million by 2030.
5. Need to mine our own Iron and Copper. Stupid newsmakers focus on Uranium, not knowing the fact that economical Uranium deposits are all over Australia and Canada and Central Asia.
6. Let them start more medical colleges and engineering schools. 55 lakhs to study medicine is cheap. Its a price of a CRETA. ****, these people are so stupid. We are sending all our brightest abroad to study and they never come back.
7. Lets make all our garments and shoes domestically.
8. Exports, honestly, don't know what we can manufacture cheaply. Curse of geography. IT products and services can be our exports. May be bottled water. May be Himalayan Cheese and Spirits. Its hard to arbitrage our cheap labor when there are a billion cheap laborers in our South. If promoted, we can export fresh fruits/vegetables to the Gulf. A little Netherlands is one of the biggest agro exporter. We can probably try to be like them rather than become a Singapore.
9. Build reservoir projects in partnership with India/Bangladesh on favorable terms.
10. Produce more nurses, plumbers, electricians, carpenters, doctors, engineers. India takes 3B remittance from Nepal each year, according to ILO.

We have lots of challenges. But, we have opportunity too. For now, remittance is the cash cow, which we need to move in favor of tourism dollars and income from selling electricity in mid and longer terms. We need to promote import substitution industries, while also training our youth to be more skilled workers, substituting Indian skilled laborers in Nepal.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 6342
विज्ञहरुको चेतावनी- 'आयात नियन्त्रण गर्न नसके नेपाल पनि श्रीलंकाको पदचापमा जान सक्छ'



who विज्ञ? In Nepal Only I understand economics.

And I say,'If we cant increase export, we shall go Srilanka way".

Last time I checked import list, I dont see anything which we can decrease in import. If we dont export many many times more, we wont even be able to import even raw material.


In the picture of विज्ञ, all I see are dalal of communist and congress and raw and cia.

विज्ञ? MC khate, jhole, dalal,
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 6342
आयातमा प्रतिबन्ध लगाउने र एलसी खोल्दा नगद मार्जिन राख्नुपर्ने व्यवस्था हटाउन आईएमएफको दबाब
(Guess who is promoting this news, the channel financed by gupta and sons, who also hate share market and who imports expired, damaged products into Nepal)





When Chinese gives loan, they demand either guarantee or want that project to remain with china for certain period. Everybody does that.


But in case of west like IMF, Anglozoo send organization and other gangs to destroy the economy, then IMF, World banks etc come to the country and offer loan and demand collateral like basic infrastructure like railway, water supply.

Their goal is to destroy economy, than offer loan then make sure that country wont be able to pay back and in the name of privatization- their people take over basic infrastructure.


This way, they keep on making money from that country, keep $ demand, keep that country weak and rule for ever.





This is what debt trap is. But they spread the lies about Chinese debt trap.

And doggo of dalal indian nepali congress spread that garbage in Nepal.

VOTE RIGHT, vote dalals out
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 6342
When there was communist economy in China, millions died and forced to become capitalist.

But they never accepted capitalism from deep, they keep on calling themselves chinese style socialism (china is bigger capitalist and US in my view) .... so they never fully understood capitalism or economy.


Months back, when they had evergreen housing group (or something) crisis, their govt stopped credit to the whole housing sector which almost crashed the entire economy, so they backed down in a few month.





In Nepal, they dont care. Dont forget to thank- governor, d governors, fake economist, wanna be social media/media expert, politicians, bureaucracy, media, bankers.
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 1860
घरजग्गा बजारमा 'डिस्ट्रेस': बेच्नेको ‌ओइरो, किन्ने शून्य, एजेन्टकोमा प्रोपर्टी लिस्टिङको चाङ
https://bizmandu.com/content/20220629191250.html

& final shock will be transferred to banking system. What will be the magnitude of EQ created by this shock ?
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 6342
I did not want to give advice for monetary policy since they know everything, but due to crisis ....

- Go back to CCD ratio.
- Bring down interest rate.
- Tight import for 6 more month.
- Make 1 kharab available for export based industries at 3% interest for 5 year.
- Reverse all share related bad policies.
- Slowly lose tighter loan policy.
- Let everyone invest in share with capital and reserve including cooperative. NRB should invest too.
- Accept share investment as liquid assets.



Who gets export loan:
- Those who want to open factory who will be exporting at least 25% of production capacity.
- Those who been exporting and wants to expand production and at least 25% of extra production capacity should be exported.
- What if they are able to export only 20% (80% of target)? They should pay interest 3% on 80% loan and 8% on 20% loan.



To solve foreign currency crisis:
Short term- Export cement like they been talking about and motivate those who been exporting to export more.
Long term- Within 3 year, add more export oriented factories and new products. Go for those industry that uses electricity.





While, every idiot been talking about factories to create jobs, while I kept on maintaining that in Nepal, factories should be used to bring in foriegn currency and reduce exist of foreign currency... job creation through manufacturing in Nepal should only be secondary policy. I always knew about current foreign currency crisis, Nepal be facing. In Nepal, we need to import raw material, semi finished product, parts, almost finished product ..... for all those we need foreign currency. Out only way is we need to export. We need to balance export and import. Saying, we should only export, it does not work like that.



We need to reduce tax (including import tax) to bring down cost of doing business, to bring down cost of living so that we would be able to compete in international market. No body going buy our product if we tax high on their product. IF tax is high, cost of living in Nepal stay high which would increase cost of production too.











I had been saying I have a plan to increase Nepal's GDP to 200 kharab but I dont want congress and communist to success. But due to crisis, I have, above, disclosed part of my plan.

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