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A Major Fundamental Factor In Stock Market - Interest Rate Levels - Constant Analysis

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Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 458
Like said on August 03 - 5 days ago, (See Below)
Previous Week was a buy week
Current Week NEPSE is surging

Like said top scrips to be
Scrips like NBL
Scrips like SICL

Congrats to them who bought

.....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA....
Member
Registered: Jun 2013
Posts: 50
@पूजीभैरव
Is there special selection stocks or sector to buy for this week
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 458
THIS WEEK IS A BUY WEEK

....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA....
Member
Registered: Jun 2018
Posts: 11
@पूजीभैरव
How big effect will 15% interest rate cap (from 18%) and 1.5% service fee (from 2%) cause in Microfinance sector? Right now the interest is also cheap compared to previous time.
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 458
As said few days ago, in this thread, MFI profit is sure to decline
All Top 10 Losers are MFI today
Solely because of that scissor in Service Fees


....Baki Ishwor Ko Leela....
Member
Registered: Jun 2013
Posts: 50
@पूजीभैरव ji,

Yes I did follow you for the advice of GBLBS and could succeed. Thanks for that. Now again want to know about your prediction for hidden Gems for investment. You did share truly and genuinely with reasons for selected companies. thank you sir
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 458
MoneyControljEE

1. I suggested buying of GBLBS at Rs 300 range and suggested its selling at 600+ and than closed that thread.

2. MFI secret way to evade interest rate cap was through service fees. Now cap of 0.5% means no secret way through service fees.

3. This means the least charging MFI have total effect of 3%(int rate cap effect to 15% from current 18%)+1.5% (service feee cap) = 4.5% straight decrement in profit.

4. 4.5% FOR LEAST CHARGING MFI. On an average thisi s 5.5%. So profit hit is almost certain despite compensation from fall in general interest rate levels.

.....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA...
Member
Registered: Jun 2013
Posts: 50
@पूजीभैरव ji,

you were advocating on favor of MFI and especially about the GBLBS. And now suddenly changed the advocacy for MFI, showing the lesser cap with 15%. Don't you consider the decreased interest rate for borrowing fund (I think which still keeps charm of MFI furthermore). If we Avoid MFI for some time then where should we go (shift) for investment to become intelligent investor. waiting for your suggestion please.
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 458
MFI PROFIT TO BE SLASHED

1. Directives says service fees cannot exceed 0.75%. Previously after MFI cap was reduced to 18% (now reduced to 15%) MFI were charging MINIMUM 2% service fees. Very Good Work By NRB. Relief to poor. & MFI financials will clearly suffocate. Avoid MFI for some time.

....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA....
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4841
There are many vaccines which has already entered into final phase clinical trial and Chinese Vaccine has already into large scale trial with military personal. US and UK have already pre ordered 10s of millions of dozes.

All emergency clients may get vaccine from 2/3 months now- working at healthcare, transportation, those with precondition, elderly etc.

It looks like, corona will be ignored even before vaccine of public is available.
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 458
LIQUIDITY?

1. Additional 10% to 20% of working capital is being given to businesses which will maintain the balancesheet of Banks. This will help borrowers to repay loans and increase loans of bank.
2. Gold Loans is increasing drastically. This money usually comes into stock market.
3. All other sectors are sluggish, stock market is only becoming the option for many of them.
4. Bear Cycle has finished.


IS IT MANIPULATION?
1. Yes it was manipulation in the beginning
2. The meeting was held in several places and scheme was plotted.
3. But now the manipulation phase has ended from today.


WILL NEPSE RISE?
1. Yes NEPSE will rise and may reach 1600 to 1700 range within some span of time and remain there strongly.


IS NEPSE RISE SUSTAINABLE?
1. Depends upon balancesheets of Banks. but Banks balancesheet will fairly maintain the profits.
2. MFI balancesheet will see downfalls but qucikly recover if interest rate further rips off
3. Overall Market to remain stable


WHICH TO BUY?
1. Banks whose P/E Ratio is very low. Start from them. With time the scrips should be sold and bought and different scrips are favorable at different instances.

MAIN PUSHING FORCE?
1. Interest rate is the SINGLE MOST POWERFUL PUSHING FORCE FOR NEPSE
2. Deposit rates may fall more drastically.
3. If vaccine comes and business sector regains confidence and credit demand increases drastically, even than interest rates is likely to remain stable & favorable for market for some time.
4. With low interest rates, money will flow to stock market.


...BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA.....
« Last edit by पूजीभैरव on Mon Jul 20, 2020 6:51 pm. »
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 458
Liquidity was gradually building up and further the following factors will increase it significantly,
1. ALL CHINA IMPORT has stopped due to corona virus... This will stop outflow of NRS and further increase liquidity..
2. ALL Hotel Business becoming sluggish....This will seriously halt tourism business and no loans to additional hotels..
3. It is time to increase capital expenditure forcibly...This will further increase liquidity.

ALL will lead to increase in liquidity....Liquidity crunch will not arise anytime soon..Interest rates to slide down.........BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA....
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4841
For competitive economy and Banking system and promote smart bankers.



Monitory policy should introduce-

1: Three types of income of BFis- main should be non banking (including from treasury bill), secondary from loan- spread rate, and third by saving from operating cost.

2: Banks should be motivated/opened to make money outside interest rate income including treasury bill.

3: Treasury bill- rate should be 2.5 percent. Rate of treasury bill and QE/govt deposit into bfis should be same. Income from non banking should not be tied with spread rate and should not be calculated while calculating spread rate. Income from treasury bill should be tax free. Treasury bill should be utilized maximum to build infrastructure of Nepal.

4: Spread rate- Current spread rate should be 4.5%. 50 year spread rate target should be 2.5%. In every 3 year, spread rate should be reduced by .1%.

5: I believe, current average operating cost is 2.5%. Just like spread rate, operating cost should be fixed. And It should be max 2.5%. 50 year target of operating cost should be 1.75%. I every 4 year, operating cost should be reduced by .05%. If Bfis can reduce operating cost, below 2.5%, they should be let to add it in their profit.







Non banking income and operating cost income would motivate BFIs to promote right management and competitiveness and merger.
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 458
RisingSunjee
...Jai Hos...

And
1. Spreadrate should not be revised
2. Bank should be compelled to maintain spread rate of 4.4 and should be further thrashed to 4%
3. Banks should go for mergers
4. It seems half a dozen banks will go for merger if NRB is little proactive and pushes
5. Interest rate should in every way pushed down
6. Banks should earn by increasing operational efficiency

....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA....
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4841
YES, Thanks to Mr Khatiwada & NRB

we suffered liquidity crisis and interest rate crisis which lead to share market crash (there were/are many other reasons too).






Now Thanks to Mr Khatiwada & NRB

Our economy is in trouble, and demand for liquidity is lower, and soon interest will fall significantly. And share market will boom very soon.

























And I am the only one in the entire universe who predicted/warned both year or 2 before it happened. And I have made many such predictions/warning, and many began to come true since last 1 year.






And,
Thanks to Mr Khatiwada & NRB

Communist lost the elections in their backyard for the first time in decades.






:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:


and still communsit cheto ko chaina. noice. :lol:
Member
Registered: Jan 2018
Posts: 106
The only way to payback Pujibhairav jee is to donate a portion of the profits in charitable tasks by consciously remembering your name.
Member
Registered: Dec 2017
Posts: 36
Applaud pujibhairabji for seeing before many of us whats unfolding in MFIs space.
And also want to know if large cap MFIs like CBBL,NUBL are gonna give similar returns as small caps?
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 458
As predicted INTEREST RATE IS FALLING
Thanks to Mr Khatiwada & NRB

1. The history is repeating itself
2. If govt spending becomes proper interest rate can go drastically down
3. Four years ago, the cost of funds of MFI was 7% to 8% due to low interest rate and if same happens again, profit of MFI on an average can further be expected to increase by more than 30% to 50%, giving steep rise in EPS....If interest rate falls continues for 6 more months than this can be seen very soon.

4. Strong Negative correlation between interest rate and NEPSE
5. FD money and Savings of Corporates and Retail Investors will flow into stock market.

6. Current establishments which took project financing (hotels, cements, hydros etc) will not have demand for loan until it comes with positive cash flows
7. And as it generates cash flows it will add more to liquidity
8. Major hydros to complete within 1 year and it will also throw installments into banks
9. Hence govt spending also needs to be proper

.....LIQUIDITY DUMPED - NEPSE PUMPED...& GAME BEGINS......Baki Ishwor Ko Leela...
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 458
NBL HOME LOAN - INTEREST = BASE RATE +1% PREMIUM = 7.84%+1% = 8.84%

...THUS INTEREST RATE IS DECLINING....
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 458
Well Interest rate fall is not a rumor but it is a fact
Interest is falling down
Banks are really pushing interest rate down to retain clients

NOTE - PLEASE BARGAIN BEST WITH YOUR BANKS ON YOUR LOAN INTEREST RATES -

.....baki ishwor ko leela...
Member
Registered: Jun 2017
Posts: 555
Puji bhairab sir,

i didnot find any info about gblbs right share in sebon approved list nor in sebon pipeline list.

:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 458
INTEREST RATE WILL SLIDE FURTHER
1 - The higher interest rate on debenture wont affect this. Debenture interest of 10% means only 7% for banks. As interest expense is deductible as per taxation laws (30% corporate tax). So effectively banks are raising debentures at 7% not 10%. So debentures will help further to cut down interest rates.

2-SubPrimeLendings are showing effect. Non-performing Loans are piling up. Congratulations, this is your reward for greed. This will lead to many mergers and acquisitions deals. Board of banks will seek merger/acquisitions desperately to maintain strong financial positions of their banks. Interest rate will slide further due to this as well.'

3 - Demand & Sanction for large project financing and consortium on cements, steels and hotels have stopped due to their unsatisfactory performance. Thus liquidity piles up and will help to slide interest rate further.

4- Interest rate now must go down by minimum 3% (general interest rate levels) in 2020.

.....Interest rate down is good news for stock investors.....Banks profit shall be corrected and move down to normal profit region as abnormal interest rate will disappear and banks running capacity (CD RATIO) will come down ....Slide in interest rate level will make MFI profits surge, MFI shall again maintain their peak prices as it used to do in the past.......Also home loans shall become cheaper, and reduction in cement and rebars prices is extra bonus for those willing to go for construction.....

....These FUNDAMENTAL factors make significant difference in momentum of stock prices in stock market....

.....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA....
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 458
Deepakjee

1 - RIGHT SHARE has not opened yet

2 - Right Share should open now within 1 month as SEBON has already given approval. May be company's internal working going on.

3 - Perhaps book close will come within few days as 2 week is almost over after sebon gave approval


Also on this note
1 - Buyers will be clear winners
2 - Dont sell this share even after bookclose

.....Baki Ishwor Ko Leela...
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1501
Punji Bhairav ji !!

Has the Right opened for Grameen Bikas Laghubitta Bittiya Sanstha Ltd. (GBLBS) ??

If Not what is tentative date ?? If yes since when ??

When was the Book CLOSE for right of 1:0.5 ??
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 458
DubosiJee
- Agreed With That

Interest To Slide Down Further
1 - After this quarter end, chaitra end, base rate to decrease further
2 - Interest rate to plunge down further
3 - Premium rates also to plunge down further

Fact
1 - After every bull cycle, Interest rate has touched skies
2 - It isnt a co-incident, its a structured plot
3 - We have seen series of interest rate surge and now its time for Series of interest rate decrement
4 - Market is such roller coaster

.....Soon time will verify this.....Baki Ishwor Ko Leela....

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