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A Major Fundamental Factor In Stock Market - Interest Rate Levels - Constant Analysis

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Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 718
There has been talks
A single NRN person networked around NPR 1 ARAB in crypto based forex copy tradeing companies
&
There are dozens of such persons
I think around 1 kharab which has flown away from Nepal has been blocked in such scam companies motivated by quick profits and another 1 kharab inward remittance flown to such investment

It seems BLACK MONEY has entered the banking system lately
But how much is yet to be confirmed
Banks to open from Today & money might to into the system by upcoming 1 week

Tourists which has not been coming since last 2 years have started to come
This will help the economy

We dont have INFLATION but we IMPORT INFLATION as we are import based country
Certainly its gonna hit the pockets, hit the stocks, hit the economy
All caused by Russia - UKRAINE war

Liquidity prolly to ease in coming days
Fourth Quarter can be comfortable
Lets see

...BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA...
Member
Registered: Dec 2016
Posts: 163
@MegaTrader

Succinctly summarized. Thank you.

And if you are a central banker now, inflation is a number one focus, not maintaining asset prices, not definitely risk asset prices. In case of Nepal, the number one focus is how to increase foreign currency reserve.
Member
Registered: Aug 2021
Posts: 12
1) Macro Economic Parameters :
- Liquidity ( Worst CD ratio & High Interest Rates )
- BOP ( trade deficit )
- Inflation ( already high )
- Economic Growth Rate - GDP ( very low )
- Capital Expenditure of Government ( non existent )
- Major Inflows of Economy - Remittance , Tourism ( worse figures )

2) Market Related Issues :
- Regulators ( Biggest cause of downtrend ; Policies averse to market ; Inefficient & ineffective )
- Institutional Investors ( non existent ) ( Stock dealer being the biggest joke )
- Investor forums ( I don't know their purpose at all )

3) Fundamentals of companies & MicroEconomic Parameters :
- Hotels ( Profitability ratios Negative ; Worst Solvency ratios ; Can't expect boom in tourism industry for few years to recover heavy losses sustained during covid years )
- Hydro ( Priced way above their worth for right shares , last minute price manipulation , less supply ) ( incomplete projects ) ( even after operation we can't expect eps above 20 from any of them. Thus , can't expect good dividend yield. )
- Insurance ( Mergers - Not favourable for trade ) ( After increament in PUC can't expect good dividend returns for many years to come )
- Com/Dev Banks & Finance ( Oversupply being the hurdle for capital appreciation ) ( Interest rates higher than dividend yeild of BFIs ) ( Eps & Book value : Not attractive)
- Microfinance : Comparatively Better & Evergreen sector
- Others & Manufacturing : Not much Growth in Core revenue & business .

4) Trade
- Turnover indicates market sentiment .. There's fear of possible recession & further downfall of several parameters . Cash Inflow from other sectors of economy isn't visible till now.
Every increament in index is utilised as selling opportunity ..
Also many traders are already stucked somewhere & already lost much through bad trades.
Stock being Risky Asset isn't favoured by many as diversification option in present scenario.

Will market dip further?
Are there any promising factors to lead Nepse towards All time high in near future?
« Last edit by MegaTrader on Sat May 14, 2022 10:00 pm. »
Member
Registered: Dec 2016
Posts: 163
One man is ruling the nation who is not even elected by the people.

Do you want them to be elected, a political position? Would that be a better solution? It is not just Nepse, the stock markets around the world is going down from the excess of past years. There are many bloated stocks in the market. Correction is a part of the game.
Worldwide inflation fucks lots of stuff, risk assets being one of them.
Member
Registered: Jan 2018
Posts: 129
There has been massive liquidations in digital assets market in the past couple of days, and a lot others are stuck under the water until their cost price returns. Nepalese traders who diverted their money into digital asset markets are broke. Only a few who could trade well have made some money. Having said this, is it wise to expect that the money will return to Nepse? There is no money left to return.

Nepse will rise only if liquidity is channeled into the system and loan is easily available to digest promoter's selling. This is possible only if "Nitigat sudhar" is done by NRB. Share market and entire nation is now on the mercy of Governor. One man is ruling the nation who is not even elected by the people.
Member
Registered: Aug 2021
Posts: 12
Factors causing downtrends :
- Liquidity crunch ( Hike in interest rate )
- Inflation
- Possible recession
Both US & Nepalese economies are struggling with these common factors .
Nepse isn't favourable enough to cause inflows of money back to Nepal.
Election could be the reason for inflow of money to the market for short term.But if we look for long term stability , there's fear of recession which is inevitable in present context.
They've more diversification option there than what we have here.
This is my perspective.
Are there any comparative advantages for investors to divert foreign investments back here?
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 718
With Dipping Equity Markets & Particularly Crypto Market
And With Fed Increasing rates more in coming days
And with more dips expected

Can we expect inflows of money back to Nepal
Can we expect liquidation of USD & USDT Portfolios and NPR Conversion

Also as said earlier liquidity eases in third quarter

......BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA....
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 718
MegaTrader
On Company Research & Talking With Friends Circles
It has been found that such and such, many companies also willing to reach paidup capital by themselves
Yes its risky if we cannot select accurate companies
But it isnt if we can pick the right one

.....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA....
Member
Registered: Aug 2021
Posts: 12
MOU between Eic & Hgi .
Now there is uncertainity regarding capital raise through right shares.
I don't think any company except LICN has capacity to increase capital through issuance of bonus shares.
It is not certain which companies will opt for right shares & which will opt for merger . It is risky to accumulate insurance stocks .
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 718
Though i have stopped short term accumulations and have gone for HOLD
Aiming to resume accumulations again

FEW THINGS THAT HAVE STRIKED THE MIND
1. Interest Rate Higher = More Income of Insurance Companies = GOOD EPS
2. Market Down = All Companies value drops = Later they wont interfere when Market goes up
3. Heavy Capital Raise = Of Insurance Companies
5. Low Market Cap = Of Insurance Companies

Also Liquidity always eases in last quarter
Seemingly Next Steep Rise is of INSURANCE COMPANIES only

....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA....
« Last edit by पूजीभैरव on Thu May 05, 2022 9:04 am. »
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 718
March 29
Time To WatchOut
And slowly accumulate good stock

Said On Apr 21
it is likely that NON LIFE might not go into mergers & increase the paidup by themselves
Only Two Banks, & 2 Dev Banks & betting on NON - LIFE INSURANCES

Today
सबै बीमा कम्पनीले पेश गरे पूँजी वृद्धिको योजना, अशिकाँशकाे हकप्रदबाटै पूँजी बढाउने तयारी

Future
Seemingly Insurance Gonna ShootUp Soon
With much Low Paid Up Capital, Non Life Can ShootUp Quickly

.....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA....
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 718
Accumulation Was Good To The Extent of 55% as said earlier
Lets see how NEPSE goes to act in the coming days

....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA...
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 718
Accumulated Slowly
55% in Market (Short To Medium Term)
Accumulation Stops Now
Continuous Losses After Accumulation
Once Nepse starts a rally will add equivalent quantity of shares

Havent touched, Hydros & Micros & Life Insurance In This Episode of Accumulations
Only Two Banks, & 2 Dev Banks & betting on NON - LIFE INSURANCES
Also it is likely that NON LIFE might not go into mergers & increase the paidup by themselves

....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA....
« Last edit by पूजीभैरव on Thu Apr 21, 2022 6:58 am. »
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 718
Whenever IMPORT was controlled DIRECTLY (COVID) or INDIRECTLY (NAKABANDHI)
Liquidity Pilied Up & NEPSE made high

AGAIN Govt/NRB control over IMPORTS is DIRECTLY
1 - Liquidity To Pile Up
2 - Businessess Who couldnt IMPORT can invest their working capital again in Market
3 - NEPSE can rise again

JUST one SENSATIONAL GOOD NEWS to trigger the market
And As Governer is Gone, the probability of such good news is high

....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA....
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 718
March 29, Said SLOW accumulation
Was in a Vacation for a week

Slow Accumulations Still Going On
35% Invested In Market

....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA...
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 718
Mr Governer was never a Governer
Mr Governer was the member of the political party who did things to serve his master & political alignment
Mr Governer Suspension is technically & politically Correct

As for Mr Minister, i never think it is necessary to have educational degree
As for Mr Minister, i think it is necessary to be NON CORRUPT & ABILITY TO CORRECTLY ANALYZE THINGS QUICKLY

As for liquidity in context of election, some 50 arab hard cash which is out of the system can be expected to enter the system

As for Market, some good stipulations and market friendly pronouncements is on the way

......BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA....
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 718
Upto 2079 Chaitra - Paidup Capital should be reached

This Means
The Most of The Insurance Companies Have only 1 AGM left
As from 2078 Chaitra to 2079 Chaitra There can be only 1 AGM (or extra 1 SGM)

This Means
Heavy Declarations Must come in Single Announcements of Single AGM

Also
Beema Samiti is Okay with Right Shares

This Means
Situation can turn good anytime with heavy rise in Insurance Prices
Also March Effect is Finishing Now

.......BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA.....
Member
Registered: Jan 2020
Posts: 57
Namaste sir,
Sir, it would be very kind of you if you could name few scripts of insurance companies.
Share03
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 718
SHARE 03
Hydro Shares - - PICKING Strong Promoter Shares in Primary Market -- Secondary Not Good Enough For Now
NON - CROSS HOLDING INSURANCE COMPANIES with large capital rise will be the deal
Others will be nominal
Diversification Wise

......baki ishwor ko leela....
Member
Registered: Jan 2020
Posts: 57
Namaste sir,
Is this time to accumulate stock of micro, life and non life insurance or is it still the hydro sector?
Regards
Share03
Member
Registered: Jan 2020
Posts: 57
Namaste Sir,
Please suggest few stocks for accumulation.
Regards
Share03
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 718
Time To WatchOut
And slowly accumulate good stock


....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA.....
Member
Registered: Dec 2016
Posts: 163
Not just petroleum, wheat, corn, oat has gone crazy up too. Steel is creeping up again after a decent fall from recent highs. Coking/metallurgical Coal is on another level.

https://tradingeconomics.com/commodities

Its going to be ugly for people without means and for the middle class.
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 718
Petroleum Prices Rises In Nepal
This will add more to Inflation
Also indirect involvement of US & NATO countries in Ukraine is likely to expand the time of conflict
And may lead to further spike in price of petroleum, wheat, corn and edible oils

In current scenario, rise in petrol means More Inflation
More Expansion of Cash Outflows from country & More Stress On Liquidity
And To Combat the inflation, Interest Rate Is left to surge more

Our stock market will continue to be in stress for some good time
Until some relief is seen - Stock market cannot witness sustainable rise
But is likely to see consistent falls


........baki ishwor ko leela....
« Last edit by पूजीभैरव on Fri Mar 04, 2022 6:24 am. »
Member
Registered: Jul 2020
Posts: 3
Thank you sir for reply.

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