Forum

Jun 05, 2022, 7:44 am - Said On This Thread
MONETARY POLICY
Monetary Policy Can be a tight one.

Jun 17, 2022, 9:55 am
अर्थतन्त्रको माग : कसिलो मौद्रिक नीति
https://www.onlinekhabar.com/2022/06/1143721


As presumed the economy will face tight situations and It seems monetary policy will be a tighter one.

....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA....

1: I see treasury collection as fu to 1
2: zzzz I dont know, NRB should be the boss of expansion from now on not demand and supply. And I think compulsory loan says the other wise.
3: As if NRB has anything to do with inflation control. Increasing interest will not force borrower to increase price?
4: The whole world is speculative but you want bank to be non speculative. Even you wife marries you speculating you are not hijada.
5: zzz I dont know, covid measures from NRB seem like over greening to me.

Yesterdays CEO level Interaction of NRB was very crucial
1 - NRB is strict with regard to lending
2 - NRB is strict with regard to credit over expansion
3 - NRB seems to uphold contractionary monetary policy to combat inflation
4 - NRB is harsh to all speculative investments
5 - NRB is harsh to all overgreening


Market To Slide Down More
1- It seems market will bleed more

....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA....

USA
Fed Reserve Increasing Interest Rates in Upcoming Wednesday Meeting

CHINA
Bank Run Happening In China
People In Long Lines In Anger To Their Banks Waiting To Withdraw All Cash
China not raising interest rate to heal the slowdown in the economy

RUSSIA
High Interest rates and crumbling economy

FINANCIAL MARKETS
Crypto Blood bath
NYSE in The Same Line

NEPAL
Nepal Facing blows from Surging Oil Prices, Food Prices as its foreign reserves are depleting massively
Nepal needs a tighter monetary policy, speculation in real estate needs to deccelerate,
Gloomy days looms ahead

.....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA.....

Food Crisis
During the Irish potato famine, the British infamously continued exporting grain from Ireland to England while millions of Irish starved to death. Similarly during the Russia Ukraine War, Russia Will take all of the wheat to its inland stores as its own wheat production has declined and will not care about the world.

War
Neither Side strong enough to win the war. Neither weak enough to lose the war. Seems war will continue.

Fuel
Oil prices rose more than $2 in early trade on Monday after Saudi Arabia raised prices sharply for its crude sales in July, an indicator of how tight supply is even after OPEC+ agreed to accelerate its output increases over the next two months.

Inflation
As CPI rises almost in all countries, the inflation also soars. All triggered by sudden increase in demand for goods after economies emerged out from pandemics and money began to flow in the market. Also caused by russia-ukraine war which is pushing oils prices up.

Government
In as much as governments really can't change the oil price, central bankers can't suddenly change the price of wheat and other commodities.

....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA....

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Western politicians and the media are beginning to push Ukraine to end the war with a result that is not beneficial for Ukraine, but Zelenskyy assured that he is not holding such talks with anyone.

Western economy crashing ....... war may end within next 100 days.

Putin supplying wheat, fertilizer.

BASIC FUNDAMENTALS

NEPAL TO GET OIL AT INTERNATIONAL PRICE & NOT AT RUSSIA DISCOUNTED PRICE
1- On Research, came to know that, Nepal Oil Corporation had Agreement With Indian Oil Corporation, Buys Oil In International Price. This was done to avoid India speculate. But Now When Russia gives India oil at deep discounts while International Crude Oil Prices Rockets, Nepal will likely feel the pain.

FISCAL POLICY
1- A Budget That Cannot Be Accomplished In Current National & International Framework.

MONETARY POLICY
1- Our Foreign Reserves already seems will deplete faster with Rising Price of Crude Oil & Rising Price of Foods As Global Disruption Of Food Chain Continues. Interest Rate Seems Will Go Up For The Sake of Inventory Adjustment (Cut Out All Non-Essential Items) As We Cannot Afford To Loose Foreign Reserves. Monetary Policy Can be a tight one.

GOOD THING
1- Steel prices, which have been on a uptrend & sidelines for the past two years, are finally set to correct on weak seasonality, and may trade at around Rs 60,000/tonne by the end of the current fiscal year, down from the Rs 76,000/tonne peak. This is certainly good thing for hydros under construction. Oil Prices Surge will be offset by steel price drops.

BAD THING
1- FAO's Food Price Index has been rose to 22% in past 1 month. The Thing is There is No Food Shortage as of until now, it is only food crisis (soaring prices due to increase in price of wheat & fuels). This can punch us hardly too in the near future, if ongoing war continues.

NEPSE
1- People are losing money in the all the financial markets all around the world. All the inter-webs of complex situations indicates Food Crisis, Heavier Inflation, Less Savings. All this can have severe impact on Markets. This time Bear Can Be Very Very Painful if the current situation escalates. Hope things wont escalate.


...BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA.....

SHARE03
1- I Stop Lossed My Short Term Portfolio
2- I Accepted The Short Term Lossess Made

FUTURE
1- Liquidity will tighten further
2- Russia-Ukraine War can make things ugly for BOP
3- 4/12 will not be relaxed & even if it did - it will be trivial amendment making no significant difference

INFERENCE
1.Market has gone bearish and it will be difficult to catch the previous pace
2. Uncertainty is for unknown time frame

........BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA.....

Namaste sir,
Are you still in hold position or sell on swing?
Regards
Share03

FACT 01
Nepalese inflation is driven by Indian inflation rather those other domestic factors such as real economic activity or money supply in the long run.

FACT 02
There is evidence that stock prices are positively and significantly related to money supply. This finding is similar to positive relationship examined by Shrestha and Subedi (2014) for Nepal; Mukherjee and Naka (1995) for Japan;
Naka, Mukherjee and Tufte (1999) for India; Mayasami, Howe and Hamzah (2004) for Singapore, Ratnapakorn and Sharma (2007) for US.

FACT 03
But overall, the presence of cointegration and causality suggests that Nepalese stock market is not efficient in both the short run and the long run.

CONCLUSION
The policy of 4/12 has significantly blocked the money supply to stock market and it has caused speedy crash like never seen before. The sole culprit is NRB for such pervert decision. And market will continue to shake until the revision is done. Other Factors except money supply doesnt hold much strength.

.....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA....

APRIL 24
Accumulation Was Good To The Extent of 55% as said earlier
Lets see how NEPSE goes to act in the coming days

Today
In Hold Position
Good Losses, Short Term Portfolio Wiped Out By 32%

Future
International crude oil prices to rise further with EU decision to not take any oils from Russia
However Russia offering deep discounts to India and hope we get oils at cheaper price
Hope We dont suffer by inflations but there is a possibility of interest rate hike again

......BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA.....

There has been talks
A single NRN person networked around NPR 1 ARAB in crypto based forex copy tradeing companies
&
There are dozens of such persons
I think around 1 kharab which has flown away from Nepal has been blocked in such scam companies motivated by quick profits and another 1 kharab inward remittance flown to such investment

It seems BLACK MONEY has entered the banking system lately
But how much is yet to be confirmed
Banks to open from Today & money might to into the system by upcoming 1 week

Tourists which has not been coming since last 2 years have started to come
This will help the economy

We dont have INFLATION but we IMPORT INFLATION as we are import based country
Certainly its gonna hit the pockets, hit the stocks, hit the economy
All caused by Russia - UKRAINE war

Liquidity prolly to ease in coming days
Fourth Quarter can be comfortable
Lets see

...BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA...

@MegaTrader

Succinctly summarized. Thank you.

And if you are a central banker now, inflation is a number one focus, not maintaining asset prices, not definitely risk asset prices. In case of Nepal, the number one focus is how to increase foreign currency reserve.

1) Macro Economic Parameters :
- Liquidity ( Worst CD ratio & High Interest Rates )
- BOP ( trade deficit )
- Inflation ( already high )
- Economic Growth Rate - GDP ( very low )
- Capital Expenditure of Government ( non existent )
- Major Inflows of Economy - Remittance , Tourism ( worse figures )

2) Market Related Issues :
- Regulators ( Biggest cause of downtrend ; Policies averse to market ; Inefficient & ineffective )
- Institutional Investors ( non existent ) ( Stock dealer being the biggest joke )
- Investor forums ( I don't know their purpose at all )

3) Fundamentals of companies & MicroEconomic Parameters :
- Hotels ( Profitability ratios Negative ; Worst Solvency ratios ; Can't expect boom in tourism industry for few years to recover heavy losses sustained during covid years )
- Hydro ( Priced way above their worth for right shares , last minute price manipulation , less supply ) ( incomplete projects ) ( even after operation we can't expect eps above 20 from any of them. Thus , can't expect good dividend yield. )
- Insurance ( Mergers - Not favourable for trade ) ( After increament in PUC can't expect good dividend returns for many years to come )
- Com/Dev Banks & Finance ( Oversupply being the hurdle for capital appreciation ) ( Interest rates higher than dividend yeild of BFIs ) ( Eps & Book value : Not attractive)
- Microfinance : Comparatively Better & Evergreen sector
- Others & Manufacturing : Not much Growth in Core revenue & business .

4) Trade
- Turnover indicates market sentiment .. There's fear of possible recession & further downfall of several parameters . Cash Inflow from other sectors of economy isn't visible till now.
Every increament in index is utilised as selling opportunity ..
Also many traders are already stucked somewhere & already lost much through bad trades.
Stock being Risky Asset isn't favoured by many as diversification option in present scenario.

Will market dip further?
Are there any promising factors to lead Nepse towards All time high in near future?

One man is ruling the nation who is not even elected by the people.

Do you want them to be elected, a political position? Would that be a better solution? It is not just Nepse, the stock markets around the world is going down from the excess of past years. There are many bloated stocks in the market. Correction is a part of the game.
Worldwide inflation fucks lots of stuff, risk assets being one of them.

There has been massive liquidations in digital assets market in the past couple of days, and a lot others are stuck under the water until their cost price returns. Nepalese traders who diverted their money into digital asset markets are broke. Only a few who could trade well have made some money. Having said this, is it wise to expect that the money will return to Nepse? There is no money left to return.

Nepse will rise only if liquidity is channeled into the system and loan is easily available to digest promoter's selling. This is possible only if "Nitigat sudhar" is done by NRB. Share market and entire nation is now on the mercy of Governor. One man is ruling the nation who is not even elected by the people.

Factors causing downtrends :
- Liquidity crunch ( Hike in interest rate )
- Inflation
- Possible recession
Both US & Nepalese economies are struggling with these common factors .
Nepse isn't favourable enough to cause inflows of money back to Nepal.
Election could be the reason for inflow of money to the market for short term.But if we look for long term stability , there's fear of recession which is inevitable in present context.
They've more diversification option there than what we have here.
This is my perspective.
Are there any comparative advantages for investors to divert foreign investments back here?

With Dipping Equity Markets & Particularly Crypto Market
And With Fed Increasing rates more in coming days
And with more dips expected

Can we expect inflows of money back to Nepal
Can we expect liquidation of USD & USDT Portfolios and NPR Conversion

Also as said earlier liquidity eases in third quarter

......BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA....

MegaTrader
On Company Research & Talking With Friends Circles
It has been found that such and such, many companies also willing to reach paidup capital by themselves
Yes its risky if we cannot select accurate companies
But it isnt if we can pick the right one

.....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA....

MOU between Eic & Hgi .
Now there is uncertainity regarding capital raise through right shares.
I don't think any company except LICN has capacity to increase capital through issuance of bonus shares.
It is not certain which companies will opt for right shares & which will opt for merger . It is risky to accumulate insurance stocks .

Though i have stopped short term accumulations and have gone for HOLD
Aiming to resume accumulations again

FEW THINGS THAT HAVE STRIKED THE MIND
1. Interest Rate Higher = More Income of Insurance Companies = GOOD EPS
2. Market Down = All Companies value drops = Later they wont interfere when Market goes up
3. Heavy Capital Raise = Of Insurance Companies
5. Low Market Cap = Of Insurance Companies

Also Liquidity always eases in last quarter
Seemingly Next Steep Rise is of INSURANCE COMPANIES only

....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA....

March 29
Time To WatchOut
And slowly accumulate good stock

Said On Apr 21
it is likely that NON LIFE might not go into mergers & increase the paidup by themselves
Only Two Banks, & 2 Dev Banks & betting on NON - LIFE INSURANCES

Today
सबै बीमा कम्पनीले पेश गरे पूँजी वृद्धिको योजना, अशिकाँशकाे हकप्रदबाटै पूँजी बढाउने तयारी

Future
Seemingly Insurance Gonna ShootUp Soon
With much Low Paid Up Capital, Non Life Can ShootUp Quickly

.....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA....

Accumulation Was Good To The Extent of 55% as said earlier
Lets see how NEPSE goes to act in the coming days

....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA...

Accumulated Slowly
55% in Market (Short To Medium Term)
Accumulation Stops Now
Continuous Losses After Accumulation
Once Nepse starts a rally will add equivalent quantity of shares

Havent touched, Hydros & Micros & Life Insurance In This Episode of Accumulations
Only Two Banks, & 2 Dev Banks & betting on NON - LIFE INSURANCES
Also it is likely that NON LIFE might not go into mergers & increase the paidup by themselves

....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA....