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A Major Fundamental Factor In Stock Market - Interest Rate Levels - Constant Analysis

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Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 629
Relevant thought to ponder in present scenario -

देशभित्र वस्तु र सेवा दिने धेरै संस्था रहेका छन् । कसैले बिष्कुट बेच्ने गर्छन् भने कसैले सिमेन्ट कसैले चाउचाउ भने कसैले इटा । बैंकले पैसा बेच्छ । वस्तु र सेवाको मूल्य बजारलाई छाड्ने वा राज्यले तोक्ने यो निर्णय राज्यले गर्ने हो । सबैको तोक्ने हो भने सबैको तोक्नुपर्यो, होइन भने बजारलाई छाड्नुपर्यो
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 458
This is current scenario
1 - Massive construction of hydros led to liquidity shortage (more than 60% of the cost went abroad in turbine, steel, clinckers and other stuffs that are exclusively used in hydro) - (Huge NPR going outside)
2 - Over 600 MW of electricity is still coming from India (NPR is also being spent there)
3 - Nowadays Cement factories are being opened aggressively (100% margin) and machineries and cliner for cement factories are imported from abroad (Huge NPR going outside)
4 - Bigger projects like Melamchi, Airports, Fast Tracks is also resulting in huge spending of NPR
5 - Industrialist are establishing big steel plants (Huge NPR going abroad)
6 - Establishment of hotel is rampant (Again huge NPR going abroad in construction and interior decorations)
7 - Purchase of aircrafts also led to huge NPR Outflow
8- NCELL dividend outflow also led to huge NPR outflow

Coming 1 year from now is crucial
1 - All big projects, hydros, plants, factories will already be established and major NPR will already be spent and spending of NPR will decrease
2 - Over 700MW will be internally generated (Including Tamakoshi and others) and import from India will be minimized greatly and there will be NPR Saving
3 - Tourist Inflow will increase and will generate USD
4 - Transportation efficiency resulting from completion of airport in bhairawa and pokhara willl result in saving of NPR
5 - Fast track will take 4 years but its completion will also save multi billions for Nepal
6 - USA has become top 3 country for inward remittances which is also a positive sign
7 - No big aircrafts purchases in coming year
8 - More FDI to inflow now in coming days

......Hence current situation is not a fault of FM.... there is no money in the market......money is being built slowly in the system.....stock market is slowly building its energy.....within a year economy will gain strength in many fronts.......As nepse frops, it is more a investment opportunity.....more people are coming to market nowadays and making investment at slow pace.......things are bound to improve......we need more NPR and foreign currency reserve in the system......and it is being forming now....liquidity crisis will be over in coming days....and again interest rate gonna be dead cheap.....Baki Ishwor Ko Leela....
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 458
....Bankers haru ufradei chan.... Yo vayena and tyo vayena bhanda.....its funny.....But Government and NRB will be taking decision for the better economy...Neither PRIME MINISTER nor FINANCE MINISTER nor GOVERNER will side with BANKS GREEDY DEMANDS......Interest rate will be curbed........Banks will have to increase their cost efficiency.........THE CONCLUSION IS INTEREST RATE WILL BE DRAGGED DOWN.....Govt will also give their full to increase capital expenditure.....

....Baki Ishwor Ko Leela....
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 458
1. Bankers are acting ugly.
2. Banks are corporate entities and these CEOS are profit oriented
3. 25% cuts in their profits is exaggeration, bank will face only minor reduction in profits
4. Interest rate must come down for the benefit of general countryman and general businesspersons
5. Banks are acting ugly with greedy outlooks and selffish summarizations
6. If Banks cant work in general interest, it is good to nationalize them
7. Bank should have only normal profits and not abnormal profits

....Interest rate should further come down....NRB is still moderate.....Baki Ishwor Ko Leela....
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 458
Verifying Jan 26 (Previous Statement: See below)
1 - Yes interest rate came down
2 - Yes base rate of RBB came down to 5.60 (0.03% less than what i predicted)


Whats Next?
1 - Half Yearly monetary policy review is moderate
2- It will drag interest rate down further atleast by 1.5% visibly and with time interest rate will decline gradually
3 - Visible reduction in interest rate will be seen from chaitra 2075
3 - As said by Izandu news, the bank profit aint coming down, bank can leverage their parameters to maintain profits


....Baki Ishwor Ko Leela....
« Last edit by पूजीभैरव on Tue Feb 19, 2019 3:26 pm. »
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 458
It seems
1 - Many are settling their loans due to high interest rates on loans
2 - Consumer Loan and Real Estate Loan to decline

It seems
1 - C/D ratio to come down further in coming quarters
2- Interest rate to slide down further

Saw RBB 54th Barisoktsav
1 - They have C/D Ratio of 70% only
2 - Base rate 6.33% which is expected to slide down by 0.70% further making it 5.63%
3 - Also margin lending scope to increase with decreased interest rates
4 - Be prudent and take loans from RBB and pay low interest rates
5- They have improved a lot with young employees and average employee age below 34 which makes them single and one and only bank with young employees


What do we need
1 - Sebon is not doing its work properly. Yes you heard it right, main culprit is sebon. Its thinking level is worst and is not proper for investors. Yes you heard it right. SEBON isnt doing things properly for the benefit of all investors. We need new leadership in SEBON.

......Baki Ishwor Ko Leela...
« Last edit by पूजीभैरव on Sat Jan 26, 2019 9:44 am. »
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 458
CURRENT NEWS
Uniform BalanceSheet Implementation
1 - Uniformity in balancesheet is taking effect slowly, same fin. statements in Banks (for loan) and Tax Office
2 - Businessman is slowly shifting to it
3 - Hence they are showing more transactions and paying more tax

Poush End - First Installment of Advance Tax
1 - A large amount of cash (than previous year) is going to government treasury
2 - Around 1 Kharab
3 -More than than 50% has already gone

Flux Ends
1 - The flux which arouse out of reduction of Overdraft Loan Limit from 75 lakhs to 50 lakhs has come to end
2 - Nobody is selling shares now to adjust the same


GREAT NEWS
Fall of Interest Rates
1 - Interest Rate of Loan to fall from 0.75% to 1.25% from Magh

Accelerating Capital Expenditure
1 - Capital Expenditure is increasing steadily

All Adjustments Made
1 - Bonus/ Rights/Fear/Int Rate All adjustment has been made in NEPSE

Government Banks Going For Margin Lending
1- Bank are revising their policy

Good Quartery Reports
1- Improving Quarterly Reports

.....Baki Ishwor Ko Leela...
« Last edit by पूजीभैरव on Wed Jan 09, 2019 6:49 am. »
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 458
When int rate decrease = people will not keep money on FD = Rather invest in real estate or stock market

people buy shares = people sell shares =money is within the system = the positive sentiments keeps the same money rolling and rolling = stock prices go up

Ram sells 2 shares of Rs 500 = shyam buys Rs 500 = and this 500 is within the system = later ram buys with same 400 another 2 shares = krishna sellsand gets Rs 400 = and now krishna buys 1 share of 350 = mukunda sells

Same money travels with faster velocity = and creating surges

Int Rate level is a pure platinum

Later when lending level drops = more money will come to the line = currently savings and FD money travelling along with some borrowed money

positive sentiments increases the money acceleration in market

.....Baki Ishwor Ko Leela...
Member
Registered: Dec 2016
Posts: 42
May be interest rate decrease will be one factor which will push the market higher but i don't believe it will bring about a bull market . I agree with Deepak MM's theory still and market may rally for 1 or 2 months but eventually it will fall below 1000 . I do hope to be proven wrong and may be so does Deepak MM.
Member
Registered: Jun 2018
Posts: 76
A GOOD BLOW IN THE FACE OF 1000 GANG. AABA DESH MA KEI HUNXA.
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 458
Said 2 days ago (on tuesday - see below) that a powerful blow is coming - wait and watch.....and today on thursday evening we can see the outcome.... Yes this was necessary and this happened....now the reason is clear as to the heavy transaction that occured on mon & tuesday....

Saving - Around 6.5 from 8
FD - Around 9.5 from 13

....Baki Ishwor Ko Leela....
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4841
Age wise interest in my view:

Below 60 and institution- 4.5% max (2% as recommended is too low) (I say banks should charge institution to safe guard their cash instead of paying them interest. There is no way, institution could safeguard their won case which they have in 100s of billions).

Above 60- min- 6.5 and max 8.5%


Loan- 7-10% (excluded special loan like earthquake, loan from govt support).
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4841
खुला बजार भन्ने वालाहरुले केकस्ता प्रतिक्रिया दिन्छन् त्यो भने हेर्नै बाकी छ ।

- Looks like they either have already invested in shares or I am able to teach them a thing or two about economy.


अर्कातिर कम्युनिस्ट सरकारले माइक्रो म्यानेज गर्‍यो भनेर नि आउनेछ ।

- I belong to this group who frequently used micro manage. But in my case, micro manage does not mean setting good limit acceptable to majority. Like, govt can say you cant drink and drive, but cant say you cant drink.

In other word, do what ever you want, but you cant harm others.
Member
Registered: Jan 2018
Posts: 106
आम नेपाली जनतालाई वित्तीय साक्षरता छैन र यो निर्णयको प्रतिपक्षले अर्को चुनावमा issue बनाउनेछ ।

बैंक ब्याजदर कम हुनु भनेको बैंक बलियो हुनु हो र अर्थतन्त्र पनि सुदृढ हुनु हो भन्ने बुझाउनु जरुरी छ ।

तर फेरि खुला बजार भन्ने वालाहरुले केकस्ता प्रतिक्रिया दिन्छन् त्यो भने हेर्नै बाकी छ ।

अर्कातिर कम्युनिस्ट सरकारले माइक्रो म्यानेज गर्‍यो भनेर नि आउनेछ ।

तर के गर्नु पहिले नै यसैगरी चलाउनु पर्ने डण्डा अहिले चलाउनुपर्ने अपरिहार्य छ । साच्चै भन्नु पर्दा सबैलाई अति भैसक्यो ।
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4841
उद्योगमा जाने बैंक ब्याज ८ प्रतिशतमा झार्न प्रधानमन्त्रीको कार्यदलको सुझाब, बचत उमेर अनुसार

कार्यदलले बैंकले ६० वर्ष माथिका वचतकर्तालाई ७ देखि १० प्रतिशत र यस मुनिकालाई २ प्रतिशत मात्र ब्याज दिने व्यवस्था गर्न अर्थ मन्त्रालयमा राय दिएको छ|


:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

OK for me, bt does oli have guts :roll:
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 458
" Ati Vayeh Pachi - Antah Huncha"

...Hence a powerful blow is coming to banking sector.....Few idiot and small commercial banks created a mess....And later big banks followed their footsteps.....Harassing a large population out of greed and foolishness and out of few situations was never a good idea.....Now a powerful blow to their face....Wait & Watch ....

Baki Ishwwor Ko Leela....
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4841
"these arseholes" - nice, let's express anger so that politician would see and scare them.
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 458
Banks can maintain spread rates which is around 4%

Banks can maintain average 3% or 10% on deposits

Banks can maintain average lending rates of 7% (3%+4%) or 14% (10%+4%)

That 4% is banks profit

Why bank are increasing interest rates if profit is same (4%) either on 7% or 14%?

1 - Because increasing interest rates gives them higher return on their equity which has increased giantly due to capital increment (share capital+reserves)
2 - Their unholy competition

.....In nutshell, these arseholes are putting fire to the general borrowers for miserably inadequate selfishness.....day will come soon when borrowers will put their socks in their mouth....Soon after sometime the liquidity crunch is over due to varied reasons....

....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA...
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 629
When nepse was trending upward, NEPSE/SEBON/RBB GOV/FM all had throbbing headache but when it hit rock bottom all of them went into hibernation
Similarly when there was liquidity banks used to give 1-2% interest in deposit and non of these MFs uttered a word, now in the situation of crunch when general depositors are getting return on there small amount of deposit why these BRATs r crying as if they ve scald burn.
« Last edit by Dubosi7 on Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:43 pm. »
Member
Registered: Jun 2017
Posts: 555
kbl offered 13% on FD. Why this cat-mouse game? Raise interest to 15% for good.

:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Member
Registered: Jun 2017
Posts: 555
double digit drop again...why because NRB couldnot tame MOFO bankers

:mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4841
I did not misunderstood you, somebody je.

What I was trying to say was "Those who are harming Nepal, NEPSE are ............ "
Member
Registered: Jun 2017
Posts: 555
i was pointing bankers as MOFO not you rising sir

:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4841
I am no MOFO- I am a Nepali, I am what I am cause of share market- that is why, forget about harming NEPSE, Nepal, Nepali economy, Nepali society....... I can even think of doing harm to them. :roll:
Member
Registered: Jun 2017
Posts: 555
mf haru le market badhna dine bhayenan.

waiting for 14% fixed deposit.

:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

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