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A Major Fundamental Factor In Stock Market - Interest Rate Levels - Constant Analysis

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Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 515
When nepse was trending upward, NEPSE/SEBON/RBB GOV/FM all had throbbing headache but when it hit rock bottom all of them went into hibernation
Similarly when there was liquidity banks used to give 1-2% interest in deposit and non of these MFs uttered a word, now in the situation of crunch when general depositors are getting return on there small amount of deposit why these BRATs r crying as if they ve scald burn.
« Last edit by Dubosi7 on Thu Dec 06, 2018 10:43 pm. »
Member
Registered: Jun 2017
Posts: 548
kbl offered 13% on FD. Why this cat-mouse game? Raise interest to 15% for good.

:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Member
Registered: Jun 2017
Posts: 548
double digit drop again...why because NRB couldnot tame MOFO bankers

:mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4637
I did not misunderstood you, somebody je.

What I was trying to say was "Those who are harming Nepal, NEPSE are ............ "
Member
Registered: Jun 2017
Posts: 548
i was pointing bankers as MOFO not you rising sir

:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4637
I am no MOFO- I am a Nepali, I am what I am cause of share market- that is why, forget about harming NEPSE, Nepal, Nepali economy, Nepali society....... I can even think of doing harm to them. :roll:
Member
Registered: Jun 2017
Posts: 548
mf haru le market badhna dine bhayenan.

waiting for 14% fixed deposit.

:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4637
जनता बैंकले मुद्धति निक्षेपमा १२ प्रतिशत ब्याज दिने
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4637
The market now loves Jay Powell

The market's interpretation of Fed Chair Powell's comments was clear- they think the Fed is freaked out by the market decline and will be...


In his speech Wednesday, Powell spoke directly to the stock market volatility and somewhat downplayed the recent action. "It is important to distinguish between market volatility and events that threaten financial stability," Powell said. "Large" sustained declines in equity prices can put downward pressure on spending and confidence. From the financial stability perspective, however, today we do not see dangerous excesses in the stock market."



------------ Like I have been saying, when share market looses a lot of money, dont expect people to invest weather in share market or in business. They even wont spend money in consumption, so no growth.


Savages so called economist dont understand. But they fully cover media, thinking of Nepal


sati ko sarap
Member
Registered: Dec 2016
Posts: 73
Thanks Bhairab ji for some good points. But, like the most programs of social insurances they tend to be costly. People draw out more than they put in and eventually the government will have to make up for the shortfall leading to
increase in taxes. I like your points about tourism, agriculture and electricity and that they should be our area of focus.
I am always amazed what small Netherlands have accomplished in Agriculture, becoming the second largest food exporter in the world. They exported $92 billion worth of agricultural products in 2017. If we could do 2% of that, it will change the face of our country.


https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/the-american-food-giant-the-largest-exporter-of-food-in-the-world.html
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2017/09/holland-agriculture-sustainable-farming/
http://www.worldstopexports.com/netherlands-top-10-exports/

On tourism front, I think two million visitors are attainable. I read somewhere today that Nepalese travelers going abroad spent twice the amount of what foreigners spent in Nepal in the last 9 months. That is a crazy statistic.
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 368
1 - The funds are for UNORGANIZED SECTOR WORKERS.
2 - Their salary and earning is below 20,000 and all is spent in their living expenses.

1 - Electric Vehicle Revolution lie ahead. & OPEC knows that their future is now constrained.
2 - Saudi Arabia ARAMCO (largest energy producer whose valuation is roughly at 2 trillion dollar) is selling off its 5% stake (Largest IPO in world history) to enable govt to raise 100 billion dollar which shall be reinvested in building tourist destinations in Saudi Arabia.
3 - Many vehicle manufacturers (volvo, volkswagon, audi toyota etc) are stopping their petroleum based vehicle by 2025 and JOINING THE LEAGUE OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES
4 - Shift from current Lithium Ion Technology to Solid State battery technology will create a revolution that world has never seen
5- Demand for WHITE GOLD (ELECTRICITY) will surge rapidly in coming days
7 - World Economic Forum also envisages shift of regional power from middle-east to other countries and restructuring of energy industry

1 - Nepal now has to focus on only 3 things, - ELECTRICITY SALE - TOURISM - AGRICULTURE
2 - Many policy level understandings have been reached for cross border electricity sales

1 - Nepal needs large funds to build electricity
2 - Funds from UNORGANIZED SECTOR will now be available which can be prudently invested
3 - 300 Billion units of electricity can be produced & EXPORTED FROM Nepal EASILY & commercially and can fetch NET 1600 Billion Revenue to Nepal EACH YEAR. That is a huge money.
4 - Nepal needs funds. Either Internally or Externally. Internally Generated funds will help more as the money remains in Nepal.
5 - This fund will be huge and large and autonomous like CIT & EPF.
6 - CIT & EPF made profitable projects like madhyabhotekoshi, tamakoshi etc. Than this fund can also make.
7 - CIT & EPF has been successful and has large asset base. Than this fund can also follow the same.
8 - CIT & EPF has also billions of rupees in stock market. This fund will also diversify its investment and have stock investments.
9 - This fund will change lives of worker class populations and also create huge saving surplus which otherwise have been spent on Consumption alone.
10- Positivity


....Nepal Has Wonderful Future.....Baki Ishwor Ko LEELA.....
« Last edit by पूजीभैरव on Wed Nov 28, 2018 8:29 am. »
Member
Registered: Dec 2016
Posts: 73
Why don't they just build and maintain 10000 KM of 4 lanes highways enveloping the country? That, itself will bring more economic development and prosperity than all the programs of social insurances.
I am as liberal as they come, however, this is tremendous burden for the government.
Its resources and time is better spent on improving infrastructures and producing educated mass.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4637
हिटलरको देशबाट सामाजिक बीमा हुँदै यसरी आयो नेपालसम्म सामाजिक सुरक्षा

Not just technology, US stole ideas from Hitler too.

- From rocket technology, nuke, car, probably a lot more .......

- Car for all was Hitler's idea which helped US to build their modern economy.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4637
Samajik Surakshya Ain 2075

- 1 kharab each year.
Pro- people will get pension
Con- that money will be controlled by idiot, criminals.

By the way, what is the difference between current sanchya kos and this??? Govt will give more grant?? And Nepal will be in huge debt just like US????


I dont remember, during oli's previous govt or next govt, they started public discussion about samajik surakshya, my advice was "let all nepalese who want to join, join. including bharya, foreign employee, house wife as well as unemployed".

I guess they will start in second phase.


They are talking about investing that fund in so called productive sector..... what could possibly go wrong????

Current pension funds and life insurance are destroying economy by accumulating most of the capital from Nepali society which they deposit in Fixed account demanding high interest. That kind of investment is unproductive investment... depositing for high interest is unproductive and harms economy which we are facing.



By the way, has Samajik Surakshya Ain 2075, begun??? Do they have money in their account? Is this ran by new trust or by old trust like CIT? When will they start to invest in share market?

Why dont NEPSE give online account to CIT, arm, police etc immediately???









PS- some where I read, it took them 7 years to draft Samajik Surakshya Ain 2075.

This is why, I have been saying, let think tank make policy. Bureaucrat are slow, they have no guts, incompetent, not motivated.

It took them 7 year just to draft, wonder how many years they will take to solve problems it will generate.

And why is Oli and bista trying to take credit???
« Last edit by The Rising Sun on Tue Nov 27, 2018 10:09 pm. »
Member
Registered: Jan 2018
Posts: 98
पूजीभैरवजी, एउटा जिज्ञासा राख्न मन लाग्यो ।

नेपालको Debt/GDP ratio कति छ होला ? केही जानकारी छ भने यसमा प्रकाश पारि दिनुहोस ।
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 368
Samajik Surakshya Ain 2075

Fact
1 - Around 35 lakh workers in industries.
2- Minimum wage is around 13500.

Section 26
1-Contribution from employee & employer, sanchayakosh and other (which amounts to roughly 1 kharab each year)
2 -Grants from government/international institutions
3 -Profits from the funds
Hence huge amount shall be generated

Section 32
1 - Shall be invested in fixed deposits/bonds/debentures (Section 32 ka & kha)
2 - Shall be invested in shares of banks and financial institutions and other limited liability companies (Section 32 ga)

...This will create huge savings in the nation...Currently savings are of Employees Only and is related to EPF & CIT. but now a large worker population will have their seperate fund with the largest quantity of money...This larger population never saved but always spent what they little earned...Now they have to save as well.....Also such savings shall be channelized to the banking system and aid in liquidity creation..... Sthaniya Nikaya Ko Paisa + Samajik Surakshya Kosh (Worker Sector Only) = Substantial Liquidity in the future....Baki Ishwor Ko Leela....
« Last edit by पूजीभैरव on Tue Nov 27, 2018 8:56 am. »
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 368
MARKET DIP = ONLY REASON = LIQUIDITY CRISIS = HIGH INTEREST RATE LEVELS = FEAR OF INTEREST RATE SURGE

.....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA....
Member
Registered: Jun 2018
Posts: 71
THE FINANCE MINISTER HAS BEEN BHOKING(DOG BARKING) IT SINCE HIS FIRST DAY...BUT NO ACTIONS ARE TAKEN TO TACKLE/CONTROL IT. IT IS JUST A POPULIST AGENDA TO ACCUMULATE FUNDS FOR NEXT ELECTION FROM BIG CORPORATE HOUSES, IN NEPAL, TRADING MAFIAS/MARWADIS.
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 368
Government going for strict measures for different financial statements in Tax & Bank for loan

1 - This will increase tax

2 - This will decrease loan quantity of ineligible corporates in banks making CD ratio comfortable

If applied strictly can immediately bring around 1 kharab to system.

....Baki Ishwor Ko Leela....
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 368
http://merolagani.com/NewsDetail.aspx?newsID=44354
दशैंपछिको दुई सातामा बैंकहरुमा ३४ अर्ब निक्षेप थपियो, कर्जा विस्तार १४ अर्ब
Merero Lagani

Also,
it is estimated over 5 lakh tourist came this 6 month, Baisakh 2075 to Ashoj 2075 (previous year over 7 lakh tourist in 1 year)
Here tourist refers to original tourist who registers themselves at immigration
One tourist spending minimum 50,000 will make the total spending 25 arab which will also come in banking system

Hotel establishment is outflow of money as decors and furnishing causes outflow of money
Income of tourist causes inflow
Around 25 arab in 6 month is a good start

.....Baki Ishwor Ko Leela...
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 368
C/D Ratio
Prabhu - 75%
ADBL - 75%
GIME - 75%

...In such a situation where govt expenditure is tooo low, the C/D ratio is 75%... If only government increases its spending efficiency and if deposits of Sthaniya Nikaya can be shown as deposit, its obvious C/D ratio is dragged down.... Further after big projects like tamakoshi, sanjen, mahdya bhotekoshi and other hydros starts to pay their loan installments, the C/D ratio will considerably fall down.

...C/D ratio crisis in its final stage of demise wherefrom it shall never incurr again and interest rate to go down significantly again.......

.....Baki Ishwor Ko Leela....
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 368
http://sharelagani.com/%E0%A4%A4%E0%A4%B0%E0%A4%B2%E0%A4%A4%E0%A4%BE%E0%A4%95%E0%A5%8B-%E0%A4%85%E0%A4%AD%E0%A4%BE%E0%A4%B5-%E0%A4%9B%E0%A5%88%E0%A4%A8%E0%A4%83-%E0%A4%85%E0%A4%B0%E0%A5%8D%E0%A4%A5%E0%A4%AE%E0%A4%A8/

विराटनगर, (रासस) अर्थमन्त्री युवराज खतिवडाले मुलुकमा अहिले तरताको अभाव नरहेको बताउनुभएको छ । विराटनगर विमानस्थलमा आज सञ्चारकर्मीसँग कुरा गर्दै उहाँले अहिले वित्तीय सङ्क्रमण भएकाले त्यस्तो देखिएको मात्र प्रष्ट पार्नुभयो । मन्त्री खतिवडाले प्रदेश र स्थानीय तहले खर्च गर्न नसके बताउँदै आर्थिक तरलता उत्पन्न हुन नदिने गरी व्यवस्था गर्न लागिएको जानकारी दिनुभयो ।

.....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA....
Member
Registered: Mar 2014
Posts: 163
Is it liquidity crisis? what a nonsense information dispatching from
media ? Is the saving ratio decreasing in banks ? Actually it is not
liquidity crunch , it is irresponsible act of banks. How can they give
loan of amount money which they do not posses. It shows the complete
failure of NRB monitoring system and those NRB personnels who are
in monitoring line must be punished. Banks are business houses .They
always want to maximize profit. In crux banks want to pressurize NRB
to make lower CD ratio showing liquidity crunch. Government and concerned
authorities should be conscious in this matter which is completely artificial.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4637
owner of Blackmandu sold shares When it was @ 1250-1300.

Looks like he still has not bought back. He must be desperate due to latest good news and revolution about to happen.
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 368
1 - About 70,000 crore (In Previous F/Y) remittances comes in Nepal through legitimate channels and estimated amount of another 20,000 through hundi & other sources channels EveryYear

2 - That is 246 crore of remittance each day

3 - So if Expenditure is around 200 crore, still there is net saving of 46 crore per day (Just Roughly Calculated)

4 - Expenditure has risen sharply because of hydros (We need to import large amount of clinker, Steel, turbines, foreign consultancy while making hydros)

5 - I think things are balanced, and only shortcoming is government inability to spend effectively


Sources
https://thehimalayantimes.com/business/nepal-fourth-in-terms-of-remittance-contribution-to-gdp/

....Baki Ishwor Ko Leela.....
« Last edit by पूजीभैरव on Mon Oct 29, 2018 3:35 pm. »

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