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A Major Fundamental Factor In Stock Market - Interest Rate Levels - Constant Analysis

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Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 5379
There are many vaccines which has already entered into final phase clinical trial and Chinese Vaccine has already into large scale trial with military personal. US and UK have already pre ordered 10s of millions of dozes.

All emergency clients may get vaccine from 2/3 months now- working at healthcare, transportation, those with precondition, elderly etc.

It looks like, corona will be ignored even before vaccine of public is available.
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 603

1. Additional 10% to 20% of working capital is being given to businesses which will maintain the balancesheet of Banks. This will help borrowers to repay loans and increase loans of bank.
2. Gold Loans is increasing drastically. This money usually comes into stock market.
3. All other sectors are sluggish, stock market is only becoming the option for many of them.
4. Bear Cycle has finished.

1. Yes it was manipulation in the beginning
2. The meeting was held in several places and scheme was plotted.
3. But now the manipulation phase has ended from today.

1. Yes NEPSE will rise and may reach 1600 to 1700 range within some span of time and remain there strongly.

1. Depends upon balancesheets of Banks. but Banks balancesheet will fairly maintain the profits.
2. MFI balancesheet will see downfalls but qucikly recover if interest rate further rips off
3. Overall Market to remain stable

1. Banks whose P/E Ratio is very low. Start from them. With time the scrips should be sold and bought and different scrips are favorable at different instances.

2. Deposit rates may fall more drastically.
3. If vaccine comes and business sector regains confidence and credit demand increases drastically, even than interest rates is likely to remain stable & favorable for market for some time.
4. With low interest rates, money will flow to stock market.

« Last edit by पूजीभैरव on Mon Jul 20, 2020 6:51 pm. »
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 603
Liquidity was gradually building up and further the following factors will increase it significantly,
1. ALL CHINA IMPORT has stopped due to corona virus... This will stop outflow of NRS and further increase liquidity..
2. ALL Hotel Business becoming sluggish....This will seriously halt tourism business and no loans to additional hotels..
3. It is time to increase capital expenditure forcibly...This will further increase liquidity.

ALL will lead to increase in liquidity....Liquidity crunch will not arise anytime soon..Interest rates to slide down.........BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA....
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 5379
For competitive economy and Banking system and promote smart bankers.

Monitory policy should introduce-

1: Three types of income of BFis- main should be non banking (including from treasury bill), secondary from loan- spread rate, and third by saving from operating cost.

2: Banks should be motivated/opened to make money outside interest rate income including treasury bill.

3: Treasury bill- rate should be 2.5 percent. Rate of treasury bill and QE/govt deposit into bfis should be same. Income from non banking should not be tied with spread rate and should not be calculated while calculating spread rate. Income from treasury bill should be tax free. Treasury bill should be utilized maximum to build infrastructure of Nepal.

4: Spread rate- Current spread rate should be 4.5%. 50 year spread rate target should be 2.5%. In every 3 year, spread rate should be reduced by .1%.

5: I believe, current average operating cost is 2.5%. Just like spread rate, operating cost should be fixed. And It should be max 2.5%. 50 year target of operating cost should be 1.75%. I every 4 year, operating cost should be reduced by .05%. If Bfis can reduce operating cost, below 2.5%, they should be let to add it in their profit.

Non banking income and operating cost income would motivate BFIs to promote right management and competitiveness and merger.
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 603
...Jai Hos...

1. Spreadrate should not be revised
2. Bank should be compelled to maintain spread rate of 4.4 and should be further thrashed to 4%
3. Banks should go for mergers
4. It seems half a dozen banks will go for merger if NRB is little proactive and pushes
5. Interest rate should in every way pushed down
6. Banks should earn by increasing operational efficiency

Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 5379
YES, Thanks to Mr Khatiwada & NRB

we suffered liquidity crisis and interest rate crisis which lead to share market crash (there were/are many other reasons too).

Now Thanks to Mr Khatiwada & NRB

Our economy is in trouble, and demand for liquidity is lower, and soon interest will fall significantly. And share market will boom very soon.

And I am the only one in the entire universe who predicted/warned both year or 2 before it happened. And I have made many such predictions/warning, and many began to come true since last 1 year.

Thanks to Mr Khatiwada & NRB

Communist lost the elections in their backyard for the first time in decades.

:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

and still communsit cheto ko chaina. noice. :lol:
Registered: Jan 2018
Posts: 119
The only way to payback Pujibhairav jee is to donate a portion of the profits in charitable tasks by consciously remembering your name.
Registered: Dec 2017
Posts: 36
Applaud pujibhairabji for seeing before many of us whats unfolding in MFIs space.
And also want to know if large cap MFIs like CBBL,NUBL are gonna give similar returns as small caps?
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 603
Thanks to Mr Khatiwada & NRB

1. The history is repeating itself
2. If govt spending becomes proper interest rate can go drastically down
3. Four years ago, the cost of funds of MFI was 7% to 8% due to low interest rate and if same happens again, profit of MFI on an average can further be expected to increase by more than 30% to 50%, giving steep rise in EPS....If interest rate falls continues for 6 more months than this can be seen very soon.

4. Strong Negative correlation between interest rate and NEPSE
5. FD money and Savings of Corporates and Retail Investors will flow into stock market.

6. Current establishments which took project financing (hotels, cements, hydros etc) will not have demand for loan until it comes with positive cash flows
7. And as it generates cash flows it will add more to liquidity
8. Major hydros to complete within 1 year and it will also throw installments into banks
9. Hence govt spending also needs to be proper

.....LIQUIDITY DUMPED - NEPSE PUMPED...& GAME BEGINS......Baki Ishwor Ko Leela...
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 603

Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 603
Well Interest rate fall is not a rumor but it is a fact
Interest is falling down
Banks are really pushing interest rate down to retain clients


.....baki ishwor ko leela...
Registered: Jun 2017
Posts: 764
Puji bhairab sir,

i didnot find any info about gblbs right share in sebon approved list nor in sebon pipeline list.

:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 603
1 - The higher interest rate on debenture wont affect this. Debenture interest of 10% means only 7% for banks. As interest expense is deductible as per taxation laws (30% corporate tax). So effectively banks are raising debentures at 7% not 10%. So debentures will help further to cut down interest rates.

2-SubPrimeLendings are showing effect. Non-performing Loans are piling up. Congratulations, this is your reward for greed. This will lead to many mergers and acquisitions deals. Board of banks will seek merger/acquisitions desperately to maintain strong financial positions of their banks. Interest rate will slide further due to this as well.'

3 - Demand & Sanction for large project financing and consortium on cements, steels and hotels have stopped due to their unsatisfactory performance. Thus liquidity piles up and will help to slide interest rate further.

4- Interest rate now must go down by minimum 3% (general interest rate levels) in 2020.

.....Interest rate down is good news for stock investors.....Banks profit shall be corrected and move down to normal profit region as abnormal interest rate will disappear and banks running capacity (CD RATIO) will come down ....Slide in interest rate level will make MFI profits surge, MFI shall again maintain their peak prices as it used to do in the past.......Also home loans shall become cheaper, and reduction in cement and rebars prices is extra bonus for those willing to go for construction.....

....These FUNDAMENTAL factors make significant difference in momentum of stock prices in stock market....

Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 603

1 - RIGHT SHARE has not opened yet

2 - Right Share should open now within 1 month as SEBON has already given approval. May be company's internal working going on.

3 - Perhaps book close will come within few days as 2 week is almost over after sebon gave approval

Also on this note
1 - Buyers will be clear winners
2 - Dont sell this share even after bookclose

.....Baki Ishwor Ko Leela...
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1734
Punji Bhairav ji !!

Has the Right opened for Grameen Bikas Laghubitta Bittiya Sanstha Ltd. (GBLBS) ??

If Not what is tentative date ?? If yes since when ??

When was the Book CLOSE for right of 1:0.5 ??
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 603
- Agreed With That

Interest To Slide Down Further
1 - After this quarter end, chaitra end, base rate to decrease further
2 - Interest rate to plunge down further
3 - Premium rates also to plunge down further

1 - After every bull cycle, Interest rate has touched skies
2 - It isnt a co-incident, its a structured plot
3 - We have seen series of interest rate surge and now its time for Series of interest rate decrement
4 - Market is such roller coaster

.....Soon time will verify this.....Baki Ishwor Ko Leela....
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 1178
Relevant thought to ponder in present scenario -

देशभित्र वस्तु र सेवा दिने धेरै संस्था रहेका छन् । कसैले बिष्कुट बेच्ने गर्छन् भने कसैले सिमेन्ट कसैले चाउचाउ भने कसैले इटा । बैंकले पैसा बेच्छ । वस्तु र सेवाको मूल्य बजारलाई छाड्ने वा राज्यले तोक्ने यो निर्णय राज्यले गर्ने हो । सबैको तोक्ने हो भने सबैको तोक्नुपर्यो, होइन भने बजारलाई छाड्नुपर्यो
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 603
This is current scenario
1 - Massive construction of hydros led to liquidity shortage (more than 60% of the cost went abroad in turbine, steel, clinckers and other stuffs that are exclusively used in hydro) - (Huge NPR going outside)
2 - Over 600 MW of electricity is still coming from India (NPR is also being spent there)
3 - Nowadays Cement factories are being opened aggressively (100% margin) and machineries and cliner for cement factories are imported from abroad (Huge NPR going outside)
4 - Bigger projects like Melamchi, Airports, Fast Tracks is also resulting in huge spending of NPR
5 - Industrialist are establishing big steel plants (Huge NPR going abroad)
6 - Establishment of hotel is rampant (Again huge NPR going abroad in construction and interior decorations)
7 - Purchase of aircrafts also led to huge NPR Outflow
8- NCELL dividend outflow also led to huge NPR outflow

Coming 1 year from now is crucial
1 - All big projects, hydros, plants, factories will already be established and major NPR will already be spent and spending of NPR will decrease
2 - Over 700MW will be internally generated (Including Tamakoshi and others) and import from India will be minimized greatly and there will be NPR Saving
3 - Tourist Inflow will increase and will generate USD
4 - Transportation efficiency resulting from completion of airport in bhairawa and pokhara willl result in saving of NPR
5 - Fast track will take 4 years but its completion will also save multi billions for Nepal
6 - USA has become top 3 country for inward remittances which is also a positive sign
7 - No big aircrafts purchases in coming year
8 - More FDI to inflow now in coming days

......Hence current situation is not a fault of FM.... there is no money in the is being built slowly in the system.....stock market is slowly building its energy.....within a year economy will gain strength in many fronts.......As nepse frops, it is more a investment opportunity.....more people are coming to market nowadays and making investment at slow pace.......things are bound to improve......we need more NPR and foreign currency reserve in the system......and it is being forming now....liquidity crisis will be over in coming days....and again interest rate gonna be dead cheap.....Baki Ishwor Ko Leela....
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 603
....Bankers haru ufradei chan.... Yo vayena and tyo vayena bhanda.....its funny.....But Government and NRB will be taking decision for the better economy...Neither PRIME MINISTER nor FINANCE MINISTER nor GOVERNER will side with BANKS GREEDY DEMANDS......Interest rate will be curbed........Banks will have to increase their cost efficiency.........THE CONCLUSION IS INTEREST RATE WILL BE DRAGGED DOWN.....Govt will also give their full to increase capital expenditure.....

....Baki Ishwor Ko Leela....
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 603
1. Bankers are acting ugly.
2. Banks are corporate entities and these CEOS are profit oriented
3. 25% cuts in their profits is exaggeration, bank will face only minor reduction in profits
4. Interest rate must come down for the benefit of general countryman and general businesspersons
5. Banks are acting ugly with greedy outlooks and selffish summarizations
6. If Banks cant work in general interest, it is good to nationalize them
7. Bank should have only normal profits and not abnormal profits

....Interest rate should further come down....NRB is still moderate.....Baki Ishwor Ko Leela....
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 603
Verifying Jan 26 (Previous Statement: See below)
1 - Yes interest rate came down
2 - Yes base rate of RBB came down to 5.60 (0.03% less than what i predicted)

Whats Next?
1 - Half Yearly monetary policy review is moderate
2- It will drag interest rate down further atleast by 1.5% visibly and with time interest rate will decline gradually
3 - Visible reduction in interest rate will be seen from chaitra 2075
3 - As said by Izandu news, the bank profit aint coming down, bank can leverage their parameters to maintain profits

....Baki Ishwor Ko Leela....
« Last edit by पूजीभैरव on Tue Feb 19, 2019 3:26 pm. »
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 603
It seems
1 - Many are settling their loans due to high interest rates on loans
2 - Consumer Loan and Real Estate Loan to decline

It seems
1 - C/D ratio to come down further in coming quarters
2- Interest rate to slide down further

Saw RBB 54th Barisoktsav
1 - They have C/D Ratio of 70% only
2 - Base rate 6.33% which is expected to slide down by 0.70% further making it 5.63%
3 - Also margin lending scope to increase with decreased interest rates
4 - Be prudent and take loans from RBB and pay low interest rates
5- They have improved a lot with young employees and average employee age below 34 which makes them single and one and only bank with young employees

What do we need
1 - Sebon is not doing its work properly. Yes you heard it right, main culprit is sebon. Its thinking level is worst and is not proper for investors. Yes you heard it right. SEBON isnt doing things properly for the benefit of all investors. We need new leadership in SEBON.

......Baki Ishwor Ko Leela...
« Last edit by पूजीभैरव on Sat Jan 26, 2019 9:44 am. »
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 603
Uniform BalanceSheet Implementation
1 - Uniformity in balancesheet is taking effect slowly, same fin. statements in Banks (for loan) and Tax Office
2 - Businessman is slowly shifting to it
3 - Hence they are showing more transactions and paying more tax

Poush End - First Installment of Advance Tax
1 - A large amount of cash (than previous year) is going to government treasury
2 - Around 1 Kharab
3 -More than than 50% has already gone

Flux Ends
1 - The flux which arouse out of reduction of Overdraft Loan Limit from 75 lakhs to 50 lakhs has come to end
2 - Nobody is selling shares now to adjust the same

Fall of Interest Rates
1 - Interest Rate of Loan to fall from 0.75% to 1.25% from Magh

Accelerating Capital Expenditure
1 - Capital Expenditure is increasing steadily

All Adjustments Made
1 - Bonus/ Rights/Fear/Int Rate All adjustment has been made in NEPSE

Government Banks Going For Margin Lending
1- Bank are revising their policy

Good Quartery Reports
1- Improving Quarterly Reports

.....Baki Ishwor Ko Leela...
« Last edit by पूजीभैरव on Wed Jan 09, 2019 6:49 am. »
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 603
When int rate decrease = people will not keep money on FD = Rather invest in real estate or stock market

people buy shares = people sell shares =money is within the system = the positive sentiments keeps the same money rolling and rolling = stock prices go up

Ram sells 2 shares of Rs 500 = shyam buys Rs 500 = and this 500 is within the system = later ram buys with same 400 another 2 shares = krishna sellsand gets Rs 400 = and now krishna buys 1 share of 350 = mukunda sells

Same money travels with faster velocity = and creating surges

Int Rate level is a pure platinum

Later when lending level drops = more money will come to the line = currently savings and FD money travelling along with some borrowed money

positive sentiments increases the money acceleration in market

.....Baki Ishwor Ko Leela...
Registered: Dec 2016
Posts: 42
May be interest rate decrease will be one factor which will push the market higher but i don't believe it will bring about a bull market . I agree with Deepak MM's theory still and market may rally for 1 or 2 months but eventually it will fall below 1000 . I do hope to be proven wrong and may be so does Deepak MM.

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