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Investors Selling Shares In Loss? Or These Type Of Companies Rockets Up When Right Time Comes? A Classic Example From GBLBS

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Member
Registered: Mar 2021
Posts: 22
Great insights. We think alike in many ways.
Member
Registered: Dec 2016
Posts: 173
Dalio ji, I made the same point more than a year ago. NEPSE is still very cheap market to invest, unless you can invest in Iran.
Member
Registered: Dec 2016
Posts: 173
NEPSE trades at ~60% of GDP.
US stock market cap is at ~160% of GDP.
It is true that US has more dynamic companies on their stock markets. However, it also has lots of companies making no profit at all(16% of all listed companies). These are called zombie companies buoyed by cheap credit. NEPSE don't have that many companies which are zombies. Few in the hydro sector definitely. So, it is necessary to be careful while investing in Hydros. In the short term, with NEPSE's rise, hydros may come up as well, but again look at individual level scrips before making an investment decisions.

My point is, it is very safe to invest in NEPSE until the capitalization reaches 100 percent of the GDP. Even very prudent Warren Buffet looks at this ratio as a macro trend before making investing decision.

When majority of micros are reporting ~30% yr to yr growth, the sector seems to having its day. Lean money making machine, they seem to be. Obviously, as every thing in the financial sector, a rule change by the govt and they may be victimized. But, the reports as of now are impressive. With that said, some of the scrips are getting expensive after the latest rally. Good scrips don't come cheap that often, especially when supply is constrained.
When investing we should look into many variables; balance sheet, growth, expansion plans, cost of revenue, operational cost, NPL, board of directors, governance, locations, competitions and other risks.

Like Puji ji said, become an investor. Trading day to day is a hard job. We only hear about wins, there are many losses as well. Have a larger horizon. Make timely adjustments. Sit back and collect dividends and bonus. Make monthly purchases, especially during the time of pullbacks. It is very safe to buy now during pullbacks because NEPSE is priced low even now.

And control your impulses. Don't get fear of missing out syndrome as well as a weak leg syndrome. If you buy a good company with sound business, you will win.


https://seekingalpha.com/article/4259993-central-banks-are-spawning-zombie-apocalypse
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 811
@TRADERS WORD
1. GBLBS is not a share to be sold at this current price
2. It will surge more

AS FOR SALE OF SHARES. I HAVE NOT. AND I WILL NOT. I AM NOT TRADER. I AM INVESTOR. I HAVE BEEN IN THIS MARKET SINCE LAST 20 YEARS....

...AND I AM NOT LIKE OTHERS WHO HAVE CLIENTS TO MAINTAIN OR LITTLE PROFITS TO MAKE. MYSELF I AM AN INVESTOR FOR MYSELF.

....THIS THREAD IS CLOSED BECAUSE THIS THREAD HAS STOOD THE TEST OF TIME....ANY INFO ON ANY SHARES WILL BE ON 2020 Thread...

@SHARE03
...THANKS...

...BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA....
« Last edit by पूजीभैरव on Mon Feb 03, 2020 10:34 am. »
Member
Registered: Jan 2020
Posts: 68
Dear Pujibhairab sir,
Thank you so much for guiding us not only in investment but in our moral responsibility. I will definitely work on it. As you sow, so shall you reap!
Regards
SHARE03
Member
Registered: Aug 2015
Posts: 79
I understood you sold gblbs!
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 811
@ TO ALL
1. As per the analysis the GBLBS has increased considerably
2. All purchases @ 300 to 350 levels .. Reached 498 yesterday....Will further surge ....Yet to surge more.....
3. THIS GBLBS THREAD ALSO CLOSED
4. TIME PROVED IT ALL

PLEASE WITH SOME PORTION OF YOUR PROFITS ... BUY INSULATED JACKETS - 800 OR 900 FILL DOWN - PREFERABLY HYDROPHOBIC DOWNS WHICH ARE REALL WARM TO YOUR MOM AND DAD (FROM NORTHFACE OR MOUNTAIN HARDWEAR OR REDFOX - TOP BRANDS IN THAMEL.....BUY GHOST WHISPERER OR COMPRESSOR PANTS/TROUSER FROM MOUNTAINHARDWEAR THAMEL TO YOUR MOM AND DAD...MOM & DADS ARE LIVING GODS....
AND
BUY FOODS AND CLOTHES (PREFERABLY 70% IN KINDS AND 30% IN CASH) FOR ORPHANAGE.


....THUS TIME APPROVED THIS POST..
...THIS THREAD NOW CLOSED...
.....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA....
« Last edit by पूजीभैरव on Mon Feb 03, 2020 4:22 am. »
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 811
A SUSTAINABLE BUYING NOW,

1- Dividend from this fiscal year (current fiscal year 76/77) , bonus share almost sure as stock premium account has money
2- Accumulated Losses which is around 9 crore in previous fiscal year (75/76) shall be almost wiped out by 2nd quarter of (76/77). This will open doors for mutual funds to invest in this scrip.
3- Cost of fund to go lower in each quarter as overall interest rate level goes down and profit to come more bigger in each quarter
4- As always EPS too much understated in first quarter will be restored in second quarter. Most undervalued National Level MFI.
5- MFI SHARES will surge more in 2020

......Been with this scrip when it was below 300 (3/4 yrs back) and left when it went to 1000 and been when it was again 700 and left when it was again 1000....and the process will go on with in and out at different levels......this scrip is good for those who can handle it.........BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA.....
« Last edit by पूजीभैरव on Mon Dec 09, 2019 1:26 pm. »
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 811
ARIES Jee

.....BIZPATI & GENERAL ANALYST will analyse that GBLBS wont wipe out its accumulate loss by this fiscal year.....But this can be dead wrong....primarily due to following factors,

1 - Accumulated loss is 25 crore and profit till 2nd quarter is 11 crore.....This means by 4th quarter profit would be atleast 22 crore....Hence 3 crore extra profit is required to wipe out the lossess, isnt it so?..... 3 crore extra profit is easy considering the decreasing interest rates and normal growth.....AT NORMAL TIMES (JUST BEFORE INTEREST RATE HIKE IN 73/74 IT EARNED 18 CRORE IN 2 QUARTER AND 36 CRORE IN 1 YEAR - EPS WAS WHOPPING RS 64 PER SHARE)....
2- With decreasing interest rates, profits will increase and at current speed it is possible to wipe out all the accumulated losses
3 - Employees are very motivated to wipe out accumulate losses by this year as this will enable them to get all the accumulated bonuses which has been yearly credited to their accounts
4 - Further simple tactics like reversal of provisions or acturial gains etc can be used to put reasonable income amount to income statement to wipe out accumulated lossess

Also, With Regard to MFI Industry
Facts
1- Interest Rate coming Down
2 - Cost of MFI coming down with each successive interest rate dips
3 - Revenue stays constant and witnessess normal growths
4 - HENCE due to cost and revenue effects, Profit increases (thanks to interest rate dips) and so will EPS INCREASE
5 - No spread rate rules for MFI and only 18% cap

....I think It is fairly possible for GBLBS to wipe out all the accumulated lossess by this fiscal year....and dividend from next year is possible.....Baki Ishwor Ko Leela....
« Last edit by पूजीभैरव on Tue Feb 19, 2019 8:22 pm. »
Member
Registered: Aug 2018
Posts: 16
ग्रामिण विकास लघुवित्तको लाभांश २ वर्षपछि !!! http://bizpati.com/companyanalysis/23057
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 37
GBLBS=NBL.Sir,Plz describe about accumulate loss.We cannot expect dividend coming fiscal yrs also....
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 811
WHAT I SAID ON NOVEMBER 16 2018 (See Below)

Next Prediction - Next Quarter Report ( 2ND Quarterly Report)
EPS - Over 30
Profit - Multipled by 4
A/c System - Reversal of Provisions (Provisions comes dues to seasonal effect)

..There are many companies like this...I took this as an example...In Stock Market, if you are wise enough with number crunching, you live like god father.....Will come to this predictions after 3 months again...Baki Ishwor Ko Leela....

WHAT I SAY NOW ON FEBRUARY 2019
I said 3 months earlier that EPS will come above 30 and now today after 3 month its quarterly report (2nd Quarterly Report) says EPS is 34
This is called precise calculation and acccurate forecasting
Thus proved

Now further
1. All of it accumulated loss is wiped out by this fiscal year
2. Business and profitability to remain as competitive as to Chimek & Deprosc
3.50% Right Pending
4. Will maintain EPS above 30 even after Right Share provided that interest rate dips (It is almost certain that Interest rate will dip in coming days and it will have positive impact on all MFI profit)
5. Best MFI to buy at this price......Undoubtedly the best one in MFI segment...

......Use your own judgement and analyse the facts.....BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA.....
« Last edit by पूजीभैरव on Mon Feb 04, 2019 9:17 am. »
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 811
Will take some more time, prolly 3/4 months
Process will speed up after Poush
For the right share of 50%

Baki Ishwor Ko Leela..
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2089
Well Punji bhairav ji GBLBS ISSUE OF RIGHT SHARE IN RATIO OF 1:0.5 IS CLOSED ALREADY OR YET TO OPEN ???
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 811
As predicted, GBLBS reported more than 50% growth (growth is 61%) in 1st Quarter
As predicted, GBLBS has EPS between 17 to 23 (EPS is 17.76) in 1st Quarter

WHAT A BUYING OPPORTUNITY THIS PARTICULAR SCRIP GIVES

Next Prediction - Next Quarter Report
EPS - Over 30
Profit - Multipled by 4
A/c System - Reversal of Provisions (Provisions comes dues to seasonal effect)

..There are many companies like this...I took this as an example...In Stock Market, if you are wise enough with number crunching, you live like god father.....Will come to this predictions after 3 months again...Baki Ishwor Ko Leela....
« Last edit by पूजीभैरव on Fri Nov 16, 2018 7:50 am. »
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 811
Quarterly reports can be deceiving

As other MFI have reported upto 70% growth
It can be expected that GBLBS will report atleast 50% growth compared to previous 1st quarter,
However EPS should come around 17 to 23

However as we see GBLBS has trend of heavy provisioning in the 1st quarter
However same is reversed in 2nd quarter
And EPS will come around 35 to 40 in the second quarter again, EPS doubled again,

Investors will get confused if they dont understand this

Excellent performance over all
Full view of the performance will be seen in 2nd quarter report
Anybody who understand this technicality will see the clear picture

Perfect time to buy this quarter, more perfect if bought before publishment of this quarter, sell is probably good after 2nd quarter report

.....Baki Ishwor Ko Leela....
« Last edit by पूजीभैरव on Sun Nov 11, 2018 9:33 am. »
Member
Registered: Jun 2013
Posts: 137
thank you puji bhairab ji.
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 811
PrashJee

Broker 58 - Where Sandeepjee & Other Big Investors From Birgunj Region Do The Tradings
1 - Broker 58's client sold the 35000 kittas due to urgency of money
2 - Broker 58 has over 1.35 lakhs kittas total buy
3- Big Buyers have cost per share over 800, hence will go for rights

Broker 39 - Guru Neupane Group
1 - Bought 60000 kittas in price of 660+

.....Too Much Information.....Baki Ishwor Ko Leela....
Member
Registered: Jun 2013
Posts: 137
Puji bhairab ji in my opinion its broker no. 58 which alone sold more than 35000 kittas the day right share was announced which scared the investor to buy at high prices and next day onwards bear started. Hope its price increases once the current bear was clear.
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 811
Yes the 50% right shares cameup

1 - First time - the rumor made its price above 1000. But the right shares didnt came
a- Vishal Group bought over 80000 kittas at price above 1000
b- Hathaway bought over 40000 kittas at price above 1000
c - Other minor players also bought many thousand kittas at higher prices

2 - Second time - rumor came its price was above 816 and couldnt rise more as the right share didnt came in AGM notice

3 - 80% 90% of shares already transacted at price above 800

4 - And quite surprising as Right shares comes and price has no surge. But doesnt matter. This right share is MUST MUST MUST investable RIGHT SHARE.


What to do
1 - Existing shareholders should buy the rights
2 - Anybody willing to have lagubitta shares should buy this shares with pure confidence and have the rights


Current F/Y is the turning point
1 - All accumulated lossess shall be wiped out in current F/Y
2 - Strong financial parameters and strong branch network and excellent board & management.
3 - EPS after right shares will be soon maintained around 30.
4 - Just like RBB won other banks, GBLBS will win over other MFI

......Baki Ishwor Ko Leela....
« Last edit by पूजीभैरव on Wed Aug 22, 2018 7:43 am. »
Member
Registered: Nov 2017
Posts: 73
http://sharelagani.com/%E0%A4%97%E0%A5%8D%E0%A4%B0%E0%A4%BE%E0%A4%AE%E0%A4%BF%E0%A4%A3-%E0%A4%B2%E0%A4%98%E0%A5%81%E0%A4%B5%E0%A4%BF%E0%A4%A4%E0%A5%8D%E0%A4%A4%E0%A4%95%E0%A5%8B-%E0%A4%B8%E0%A5%81%E0%A4%A7%E0%A5%8D%E0%A4%B0/
Administrator
Registered: Nov 2017
Posts: 95
The wait is over: https://www.sharesansar.com/newsdetail/grameen-bikas-laghubitta-to-commence-sgm-on-ashoj-5-to-issue-50-right-shares

GBLBS has declared 50% right shares
Member
Registered: Aug 2015
Posts: 77
How to hike capital?? Bonus share possible?? NO .... one and only way to hike capital.... Right Share...
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 811
THE STATEMENT
Sun Jul 22, 2018 10:55 am
GBLBS will have increasing profits this F/Y compared to last F/Y.


VERIFICATION ON TODAY (After 25 days)
Thu, Aug 16
GBLBS has increased its profit by 31%
Also reserve have doubled.

...THUS "THE STATEMENT" MADE IS PROVED.....



ANOTHER STATEMENT (will be verified in future days)
1 - GBLBS will have 1st quarter report more good and 2nd quarter excellent
2 - GBLBS should hike its capital soon
3 - GBLBS at this price is very cheap as 80% of shares are already traded above 800, resistance may be seen around 850
4- Good price hike ahead
5 - Will be able to maintain its EPS
6- Reserve will be above 50 crore this new F/Y


.....Baki Ishwor Ko Leela..........
« Last edit by पूजीभैरव on Thu Aug 16, 2018 4:02 pm. »
Member
Registered: Jun 2013
Posts: 137
puji bhairab ji, profit increased as u mentioned earlier. tell something more about it.

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