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neoclassical realism*

I don't believe China will make that mistake. China, obviously, is interested in what Iraq has to offer. However, it will not make a blunder of entering into that quagmire.

1. Chinese foreign policy is guided by neorealism. Its foreign policy is definitely guided by realist principles positing nations against each other in the international arena , however, China's internal conditions also guide its foreign policies in the international arena as much as the realism does.
2. China has to find a soft economic landing. Its economy based on exports and boosted by easy credit and government subsidies in the last two decades need adjustments.
3. Share of consumption in the economy needs to be increased, subsidies decreased, banking sector revamped, real estate inflation tamed.
4. Loss of manufacturing jobs due to migration of jobs to lower cost countries like Vietnam, Cambodia and Bangladesh will be a huge internal challenge for Chinese government to deal with.
5. China has its own internal strifes to deal with. Uighurs in the West and Hong kong in the East. It doesn't want any foreign countries to interfere in its internal politics.
6. In other words, China has too much on its own plate to deal with something that can't be easily handled in the Middle East.
7. No doubt, the increase cost of fuel will affect Chinese economy. Also affecting China's economy is the trade war with the US.
8. If America gets bogged down with Iran, its a great time for China to sort out its internal issues before the US can again focus on China.
9. In early 2000s, the US was ready to deal with China and its uneven trade practices. The September 11 attack led America to its involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq, which provided China valuable time to make gains on the US both economically and militarily. In a decade and half, China became economically stronger and laid claims on the South China Sea and built military bases in man made Islands and Reefs in the South China Sea and constructed strings of friendly harbors in Indian Ocean. This point is not lost to Chinese leadership. They will not directly get involved in the Middle East. They will let US and Russia play the power politics.

China offers to enter Iraq with military advisers.


World says, china thinks/plans for 50/100 year. It means they are brilliant strategist. But I dont see chinese as great strategist, Russians are better than Chinese.

I see Chinese as more of great engineers. Some day in future (in a decade or two) world will be asking who are the greatest engineers- Germany? Japanese? Chinese?





China offers to enter Iraq with military advisers.

Is this some game Chinese are playing to push US out of Iraq and Syria????? Their way of saying, if you fight Iran, We/China will have upper hand, so leave Iraq, syria and prevent war Or motivating Iraq to kick our US ???? .............. Or, it is just intention of Chinese to have base in Iraq????

Reality no body in Nepal knows but myself.


Iranian general went to Iraq as a messenger who was invited by Iraq which US asked Iraq to mediate with Iran to defuse tension.

And trump killed him just after he landed just like in some hollywood chicago mob.


And a lot of conservative christians think trump is their massia.

Iran backers have destroyed some choppers of US military.

Only way to avoid ww!!! is US getting out of Iraq, Syria and probably Afghanistan.

some conditions in 2020 decade prediction



If there is war between Iran and US, US economy will go into depression due to;
1: Many things
2: High oil price
3: Iran bombing commercial ship of US, one in every month is enough.


Then China immediately becomes no.1 economy. World may go into recession, but economy of US will collapse far more than world average.



China has been saying "Century of humiliation". Those who attacked china during the decade should be worried when about to be no.1 super power use that term.

(Trump killed Iranian in the name of revenge for embassy burning.) US bombed Chinese embassy at belgrade when China was week.

By the end of this decade, China will be undisputed superpower and China's power will only grow while US' only declines and China may remain superpower for centuries even 1000 year. During that time, in revenge, China may bomb US embassy 100s of times. may start war small war in countries so just to bomb US embassy.

During the time, british ran civilization will end just like british ended natives of many countries.


When US falls in depression, civil war may star. what ever country white will rule will be seen as new americal and China will bomb that country's embassies for centuries.


War with Iran will be indirect end of evil empire.



World may see hyperinflation if there is war. Those who hold cash will suffer the most. Invest in shares now before your cash turns into paper.

Trump may be impeached now to prevent war with Iran. 50/50 chance


Iran may attack if Iraq does not kick out US army from Iraq. 40/60 chance.

Highly likely, Iran may kill some US top army men and supply anti tank to enemy of US like Taliban and other.


US army has begun to start arresting Iraqi politicians/member of parliament.



For last few years, I advised idiot Indians to bring Oil from outside middle east water through Pakistan or China/Nepal pipeline, but did not listened then, began to work last year, to little too late. Modi must be peeing his pants.

2020 decade prediction






- Nepal's economic bull will start from 2020 after yuraj k is gone and if surendra panday (or someone positive) becomes finance minister who listens to me. Which will take per capita income to around 750000 NC. For above that, Nepalese are too savages. Only I can take Nepal above that.

- Nepal's share market will cross well above 10000 in 2020 and around 20000 at the end of the decade.

- Asian economy will be around half of Global economy by the end of this decade.

- Chinese economy will pass US economy in 2023-2025.

- Just like US lost their car industry to Japan, Germany.... In the early decade, US will loose communication industry to China (and a little to S korea).

- Russia will be the second largest economy of Europe by the end of this decade. If not first.

- US monopoly over passenger jet will face third competition from Russia/China.

- Iran will be the regional super power- militarily and economically by the end of this decade. Pakistan/Iran/Turkey/Iraq/Syria/Lebnon group will rise and end Saudi ran group in this decade.

- Clear NEW word order will rise in the early decade and take over by the end of the decade. Meaning, US controlled world will end by the end of this decade.

- End of dollar by the end of the decade.

- This decade will see the blame game between socialism and capitalism. Expose socialism even idiots will see. Which will help end socialism in next decade. (I want to write about his, but due to share market depression, I dont have mood.)

- From this decade, South asia will see low tax and low interest rate.

- World will see low tax rate in this decade.

- This decade will see socialist party in US, which will end US economy for good.










THIS DECADE WILL SEE THE GREATEST CHANGE, GREAT MANY CHANGES HUMANITY HAS EVER SEEN.

I have been saying huge no of neutral people are angry of commie govt and commies.

Now, many are saying same in media and social media.


Looks like, I am the first one to see it. Just like many other cases.


"""""I""""" told you.




Am I really a son of GOD????? But, why God is not helping me.

""""" I """"" predicted about over investment in Cement industry long time ago....... longer than the date of below post...





------------------------------------------------------------------
Sat Jan 05, 2019 3:19 pm


"""I""" am the first on in the world to warn about ongoing liquidity crisis, NEPSE crisis about 3 year back.

I am the first one in the world to blame
1: Unspent cash in Govt coffin
2: CCD ratio
for liquidity crisis and now others have began to talk.

Now I am giving third major reason for liquidity crisis,
3: Forced loan for so called productive sector.

The third one is also bringing in hydro crisis along with liquidity crisis. Probably other crisis like cement over production crisis. Since, cement in Nepal is too expensive than India and China, they wont be able to export excess production. Which I have explained in following link: Sat Jan 05, 2019 3:11 pm

https://forum.sharesansar.com/topic.php?id=5446




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उनका अनुसार अहिले वार्षिक १ करोड टन सिमेन्टको माग छ|तर अहिले भएका उद्योगको क्षमतानै १ करोड ५० लाख टन छ|

- I predicted this long time ago and finally investors, NRB, bureaucracy, yuraj k about to see it.




प्रतिस्पर्धाकै कारण नाफा खुम्चिन थालेपछि सिमेन्टको गुणस्तरमा समेत सम्झौंता हुन थालेको नेपाल गुणस्तर तथा नापतौल विभागले आशंका गरेको छ|

- I have talked about compromising in quality, mixing mud in the cement when their profit is hit ...... a long time ago. Now bureaucracy has seen it........ Why do I see many many things a long before it happens???????? Am I god???? I should ask my parents........ Budda walked 7 steps as soon as he was born. .... .I was told, I was the youngest infant who was able to ride tricycle, told by my elders.

And still, no body takes my warning seriously ............ sati ko sarap.











I have been warning, over investment in so called production sector is the biggest threat to banking sector and the economy. All sector is important to the economy, country. Only over investment and under investment are the threats.



Those who talked about, giving loan to productive sector only, and stopping margin loan......... would they take responsibility for current crisis in hydro and cement industry, loan and soon hotel industry too ..... and shut the f up from now on????





Mao's China and nehru's India was destroyed by so called over investment in so called productive sector. China is still suffering and India wasted a lot of time.




When I raise a threat, better, raise your ear.



Better fire, yuraj k, everyone in finance ministry, SEBON, NRB, NEPSE ...... they are incompetent, negative and evil individuals and sad little people.




And invest everything in Share market.

""""""""I"""""""""""' would like to make another discloser about Trump:

Trump is the puppet candidate of rebel fraction of 'deep state'.





BTW:
Bald Men Are More Intelligent, Successful, and Masculine, Says Science

This is what I said earlier:



--------------
"""I""" am the first on in the world to warn about ongoing liquidity crisis, NEPSE crisis about 3 year back.

I am the first one in the world to blame
1: Unspent cash in Govt coffin
2: CCD ratio
for liquidity crisis and now others have began to talk.

Now I am giving third major reason for liquidity crisis,
3: Forced loan for so called productive sector.

The third one is also bringing in hydro crisis along with liquidity crisis. Probably other crisis like cement over production crisis. Since, cement in Nepal is too expensive than India and China, they wont be able to export excess production. Which I have explained in following link: Sat Jan 05, 2019 3:11 pm

https://forum.sharesansar.com/topic.php?id=5446

-----------------------------



डोजर लगाउने किसानले किलोको ५ रुपैयाँमा बेचे बन्दा

This is the result of forced loan. When I approach bank for loan, first question they ask is whether I am there for agriculture loan. This proves, how much pressure they are in to lend agriculture loan.


Agriculture over production is more dangerous than over production in hydro.




So called diverting capital, human resource destroyed Moa's China and Nehru's India. Now, its Nepal's turn.

So called productive sector does need capital, but I think 10-20% is enough. More investment will lead to over production and market wont be able to consume it. That is basic economics.

""""""""I""""""""" predict:

CIT current and past bosses will regret for not investing in share market early enough. For not investing heavily when NEPSE is way low.


----------------------------------

सीआइटी दोश्रो बजारमा आक्रामक, एक महिनामा रु. ४ करोडको सेयर खरीद



Not even 1 crore per day. This is what happens when you let beggar run multi billion fund. Neither have idea about share or investment or fund.


Mark my word, Some day, within months, they will say, we regret we did not aggressively invested when NEPSE was all very very low.









Another prediction: Russia will become second largest economy of Europe within 5 year.

When China becomes largest, and India becomes second largest in the world. Russia my become 3rd largest in the world then.

"""I""" am the first on in the world to warn about ongoing liquidity crisis, NEPSE crisis about 3 year back.

I am the first one in the world to blame
1: Unspent cash in Govt coffin
2: CCD ratio
for liquidity crisis and now others have began to talk.

Now I am giving third major reason for liquidity crisis,
3: Forced loan for so called productive sector.

The third one is also bringing in hydro crisis along with liquidity crisis. Probably other crisis like cement over production crisis. Since, cement in Nepal is too expensive than India and China, they wont be able to export excess production. Which I have explained in following link: Sat Jan 05, 2019 3:11 pm

https://forum.sharesansar.com/topic.php?id=5446

More than 6 months ago, I opposed these ministers and advisers and called them threat to Oli govt:
1: bishnu rimal
2: yiraj k
3: badal
4: matrika yadav
5: bista

That time, they were very popular among crowd and media.

Today, other than bista, all other has lost credibility.

Bista... wait for it....... when he was hydro minister, even after criticism, he passed hydro policy about granting license to developer without competition. Others warned him but did not listen. After he was gone, maoist took over and used that policy to sell hydro projects for bribe.

Bista is still popular among gullible. People think his deal with Malaysia is great and wants to do similar deal with other country.

Wait for the blow back from his popularity projects, he will destroy foreign employment which is the back bone of Nepal's economy.

If employer country promotes that policy for all employee, it may work but if that policy is just for Nepal, there will be blow back.No employer wants to take more risk. Paying for transportation increase risk. And they wont take Nepali worker.

Even if they take, bad for employee. Business is business, If company takes more risk means that company expect bigger return.

If employee had been paying 100 for transportation and other cost, if employer has to pay 100, he/she be taking extra risk of 100 so he/she will expect 300 return. So indirectly, employee be paying 300 due to stunt by bista. Its just business and its just normal. If you take risk, you demand reward too.

Better, govt lend initial cost to foreign bound employee than make employer pay for it.


Just wait for Bista to mesh up our economy back bone and watch his another down fall after long hibernation.



Second, economy.

I had zero faith in yuraj K. but till his budget I did gave him 1% benefit of doubt. After budget it was all over for me. I had been warning about economic disaster alone while majority called him biddwan.

I had been critic of Yuraj k for a long time. During early days, i was making noise as if I am some mental case.

Today, many are making noise about trouble in our economy.

Since my job is done, so I no longer need to make noise 24/7 about economy going down cause of yuraj k. Warning now and then would be enough now.

So now I can relax and enjoy the show, the show of end of commie from Nepal too just like in the rest of the world. And other making noise.


I predict future while crowd see it only after fire already catches the jungle.




TOLD YOU!




Fire yuraj k and others, Oli.

Another prediction """I"""" am going to make.

Clear end of $ will begin from 2019.

$ will be replaced by yuan and euro.

Dump $, buy yuan and euro.

तर अर्थमन्त्रीले उद्योगी/व्यवसायीप्रति राम्रो नजरले हेर्दैनन्| 'सबै उद्योगी व्यवसायीलार्इ दोस्रो दर्जाको रुपमा हेर्नुहुन्छ,'ती ब्यवसायीले भने|
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what I predicted months back:


""""I"""" would like to make another prediction.

So called biddwan so called economist Dr.Yuraj K is or will run Finance minister like mandale era bureaucracy.

-------------------

My predictions used to be very accurate. But after PHD governor started to attack Share market, My prediction about Share market has been awful. But prediction outside share market is still accurate.


Private sector had been waiting for stable govt for many many years. Finally, we got it and still private sector and foreign investor dont want to invest. And its cause biddwan and commie govt and bureaucrat.

Is biddwan yuraj k bigger than economy of Nepal? Why 8 class Oli does not fire him? I am sure biddwan has been lying to 8 class Oli.

Am I the only one who have not forgotten the earthquake???


८ अर्ब लगानीमा एसियाकै उत्कृष्ट अपार्टमेन्ट पोखरामा बन्दै, तीन वर्षमा सम्पन्न हुने


18 storey, 3 storey parking. What could go wrong in earthquake prone area? We are suppose to learn, hollow space in the lower floor is disaster magnet.


After the earthquake, govt talked about preventing building more than 3 storey in residency area. Where is the policy now??


Which banks are financing this project?

http://www.bizshala.com/story/%E0%A4%89%E0%A4%A6%E0%A5%8D%E0%A4%AF%E0%A5%8B%E0%A4%97%E0%A5%80-3


look how biddwan is sitting.

did not i call him mandala bureaucrat????


sati ko sarap






retire bhayara gadna parne lai, Finance minister banayo 8 class Oli le. Today, finance ministry is totally ran by bureaucrat. If bureaucrat can run a country, why do we need political party? Army should take over.

""""I""""" could be the only one in the entire Universe, who made this prediction years back.

Other advice to buy gold.

If there is a threat of hyper inflation, invest in shares, especially in multinational or that companies which will survive in hyperinflation. Since, there are not enough gold. Especially for investor in US.

My theory has been proven by Venezuelan stock market. I just found out. Their share market increased by many many many many times with in a few year.


I also have been saying, never try to hold too much cash. Invest it in shares. And out biddwan has put in FD. Idiot.

Idiot fooling another Idiot. 8 class.


Take my latest prediction seriously- "Biddwan's fiscal and monitory policy will harm our economy".

If he is not fired and 8 class Oli dont reverse 90% of changes he made, we will loose a lot of GDP growth and waste 6/12 month. Biddwan may get fired "max" after we find out GDP growth.

i told u all


""""I"""" would like to make another prediction.

So called biddwan so called economist Dr.Yuraj K is or will run Finance minister like mandale era bureaucracy.

इन्टरनेट सेवा शुल्क लगाउनु उचित हुदैन भन्न अर्थमन्त्रीलाई भेट्न गएका थियौं, उहाँले यस्तो सानो विषय लिएर अर्थमन्त्रीको समय बर्वाद गर्ने भन्दै हामीलाई उल्टै हपारेर पठाउनु भयो


People like me gave vote to Oli, but, biddwan Yuran K is the one running Nepal like a mandale bureaucrat.

There are lakhs of self employed are angry with this govt cause of biddwan, and still self proclaimed economic expert partrakar has no idea.

If 1 Nepali gives a damn about Dr.KC, 1000 Nepalese has issue with this govt's economic policy/biddwan's policy.

But Patrakar gives space to one and ignores another.

May be its time, patrakar and owner of patrika should go back to patrakar school.

लगानीकर्ताका नेता भन्छन् 'प्राथमिक बजार सरकारले बिगार्यो', दोस्रो बजार बिगार्ने को होला ?


zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzeeeeeeeeeeeeee

___________________

I am the only in the entire Universe who may have predicted the following, now looks to be true:

I said, at different time, different group of traders dumped their shares and worked on to crash NEPSE.

1: When NEPSE crossed 1700 (before it made record), one group of traders sold their shares and stared to print in the media as well as started to make a big noise that NEPSE is over valued, govt should intervene. I guess, they control criminal fake news media like blackmandu, kriminalkolagani and many other (only Sharesansar and nepalipaise did not go negative).

2: After NEPSE hit record, another group started to sell their shares. They are -banks, mutual fund and their relatives.

After that NRB, SEBON started to attack NEPSE and today we have out of control NEPSE where Investors have no confidence at all.

3: In between 1500-1300, another group must have dumped their shares. Whom Deepak ji likes to call them Big daddy. After selling they began to spread lies about TA showing NEPSE will crash to 1000. This group may have hired Bishnu Bas ji from India. In this group, mostly may consist of marbadis.

Marbadis could be the ones who kept on buying shares even after it became way over valued like SICL crossed 4000 and still kept on buying, EBL increased a lot too, NLIC etc.

When NEPSE hit the record, 10/15 companies were over valued while most were still undervalued. And when market started to crash after criminal Governor attacked NEPSE, then every thing began to crash. Hope his entire family dies.

----------------------


Today, Oli, Biddwan Yuraj K, communist are also pressing the crash.

i told u all

""""I"""" would like to make another prediction.

So called biddwan so called economist Dr.Yuraj K is or will run Finance minister like mandale era bureaucracy.


Did not, Yuraj K became bureaucrat during mandale time? Those days, he used to lick a$$ of birendra and disrespect/insult public.

Same is/will happen again. This time, he licks a$$ of Oli, try to make other politician/cadres happy and disrespect public and lower ranking bureaucrats.

Yuraj K has a mandale mentality.

He is bad for Nepal and Nepal's economy. Private sector wont cooperate with him fully.

I am the only in the entire Universe who may have predicted the following, now looks to be true:

I said, at different time, different group of traders dumped their shares and worked on to crash NEPSE.

1: When NEPSE crossed 1700 (before it made record), one group of traders sold their shares and stared to print in the media as well as started to make a big noise that NEPSE is over valued, govt should intervene. I guess, they control criminal fake news media like blackmandu, kriminalkolagani and many other (only Sharesansar and nepalipaise did not go negative).

2: After NEPSE hit record, another group started to sell their shares. They are -banks, mutual fund and their relatives.

After that NRB, SEBON started to attack NEPSE and today we have out of control NEPSE where Investors have no confidence at all.

3: In between 1500-1300, another group must have dumped their shares. Whom Deepak ji likes to call them Big daddy. After selling they began to spread lies about TA showing NEPSE will crash to 1000. This group may have hired Bishnu Bas ji from India. In this group, mostly may consist of marbadis.

Marbadis could be the ones who kept on buying shares even after it became way over valued like SICL crossed 4000 and still kept on buying, EBL increased a lot too, NLIC etc.

When NEPSE hit the record, 10/15 companies were over valued while most were still undervalued. And when market started to crash after criminal Governor attacked NEPSE, then every think began to crash. Hope his entire family dies.