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NEPSE TO HIT 1000/- mark in coming days !!

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Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4392
What would I say if I dont have integrity and need to buy?



There are two groups of m0r0ns in share market? One sell on week end and another first day. Since, this week may be, base rate kanda may be solved. So let's see what would happen tomorrow???
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1391
Market was Dominated by Bear and will continue to dominate this week too.

Technically the chart suggest the market is all set to break the Physological level of 1200/-

We might see early uptick in the market as some traders will try to push the index up on low volume trade to Avoid their Margin call. Some big fish are also stuck in the Majhi dai Ko Jaal Trap.

Don't get excited and become aggressive if u see an early uptick.

Be Calm and Smart. Margin based sell off will give Good Quality stock also at lower levels from the current level.

Smart traders can go for Short selling (STBT) Sell Today Buy Tomorrow Stragety.

Here Tomorrow refers to after the Margin call based sell is executed.

Here Short sell refers to sell off of existing holding and buying at later stage.

Disclosure : The above statement is for Study Purpose only, kindly consult an expert advisers and others before makeing any decesion.

Happy Investment !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Sun Aug 25, 2019 7:01 am. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1391
THIS WEEK U TURN HAS HAPPENED TWICE BUT FROM HIGHER END TO LOWER END ^^^


WHAT ARE YOUR GUESS NOW ???

I WILL UPDATE MY REPORT ON SUNDAY MORNING !!

TILL THEN HAPPY JANASTAMI !! :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Thu Aug 22, 2019 3:36 pm. »
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 451
DOJI, MOJI, HARAMI, ICHIMOKU,ALLIGATOR ,ELLIOT AND blah blah blah are not at all relevant IN THE CONTEXT of Nepali share market. What matter is your link to REGULATORS (like to call them MANIPULATORS) who can provide information regarding upcoming policies framework. Rest of technicals and fundamentals are BULLSHIT.
Those still following ACADEMICS are just like those people who lost there vision and predicting the ELEPHANT parts with there tactile stimulus.
In developed country academic in capital market really works.
Member
Registered: Jan 2018
Posts: 91
Candlestick - Bullish doji
Indicators:
NEPSE right above 200 days moving average
RSI - bullish divergence noted
Volume rate of change - bears showing fatigue
DMI - bears showing fatigue
Daily/weekly volume - decreasing on downside

Fib retracement - NEPSE at 0.5 level (tracing from 1100 to 1320)

Elliott waves - counting from 1100 to 1320 as 1st wave and then below, the 2nd wave is almost complete by tracing 0.5; and we know 3rd wave is the longest wave :)

NEPSE is at many support levels; 1210, 1208, 1200, 1196 etc.

Today is "THAT" day. Join the winning side and become a winner.

Deepak ji, our views do not match. Time will tell whose logic is correct. Please correct me and let us know your logic and method after 3 pm. I will be watching too.
« Last edit by The futurist on Thu Aug 22, 2019 9:14 am. »
Member
Registered: Apr 2018
Posts: 19
I disagree Deepak sir...we observed a rsi divergence yesterday therefore I believe today is the day we are going to see the u- turn you are talking about...
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1391
Yesterday we saw flat movement in Nepse with downside bias still in existence.

1200 was once a crucial Physological Resistance and thus will act as Crucial Physiological Support level.

Until or unless we don't test 1200 and thus make a U turn from 1200 level to 1215 in 1 single straight session the fear of downfall will continue to haunt in the mind of investors.

Market in order to make a further upmove need to test 1200 with strong U turn then only bulls will gain confidence.

1200/- a must watch level for all.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1391
Yesterday Market made a U Turn move. But the U Turn Move was before a completion of of it's Cycle. The +ve gain it made was halfed by the closing time.

The Technical bounce was required in the Market but it formed prior the end of cycle thus very Tricky in nature thus open an argument that 1200/- will now will not act as Crucial Support. The Support line is 1182-85/-.

Use any Downside in the market to Buy Micro Finance and some selective banks.

Avoid Hydro, Insurance ( Both ) and Other ( NTC)

Yesterday we sold some where we think will get at lower levels from current prices. Though some we were getting but was not enough to cover the Brokerage amount.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1391
The market is still under Selling Pressure with limited Turnover indicates many of traders who had put bullish bets are stuck in their Position with limited cash in hand. Bears are encashing their shares with every rise or rally in the market.

Market need fresh money to move up. Until or unless new cash don't come in the market the market is unlikely to move up.

Smart investor are sitting on Cash and looking for the 1200/- with question whether there it take support or break that Physological Support. If market takes U Turn from 1200 then Smart money will enter the market again.

If not then may be @ 1182-85 level. :x

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1391
Last week Market has Broken Crucial Support level thus indicating further Down side to continue. We might witness some technical bounce back, which is just a relief rally only but not a Bull Move.

1200/- to act as Physological Support.

If We take a U Turn from 1200/- then we could Buy at those levels.

Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1391
Time to Go a Long Leave for Now. May be back after the Leave !!
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 451
5 out of 10 TOP losers are MICROFINANCE till 2 PM.
MICRO index will probably hit the target of 1360 before significant bounce back.
« Last edit by Dubosi7 on Thu Aug 08, 2019 2:09 pm. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1391
Yesterday Micro Fiance after 30% Retracement from Top till Tuesday, Yesterday formed Bull Engulfing Pattern. Now again it is going to New High on the MICRO Index !!


Happy Investment !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4392
Micro has began to rise, but same micros which hit more than a dozen circuit few days ago started to hit circuit again and strong micros still not showing sign of life yet :roll: ...... another failed TA prediction????????
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1391
As to Many it looks the Resistance of 1252/- has been broken. But due to Central Bank Policy and Other News Factor there has been adjustment in the Resitance and Support level as forecasted earlier. We had discounted the Level by 10 Points.

So Earlier projected Support of 1252/- has been revised to 1242/- and Earlier Projected Resistance of 1265/- has been revised at 1255/-

Now adjusted Support is 1242/- and adjusted Resitance is 1255/-

After the Recent Strong run up in Micro it need to Retrace by 30% from it's peak on Index level. Which is done today. After the Retracement level reached we turned net Buyers on Micro Finance as we were net sellers on Monday.

As Micro Finance is in Bull Run and 1 lot of Retracement was required from Peak which was done today.

Now Micro will Pick up again to hit new high Levels on Index.

Avoid Schengen and Rasuwa Hydro till Sunday. After Sunday you can rethink on it.

Happy Investment !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Tue Aug 06, 2019 7:39 pm. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1391
Today is a very interesting and Hectic Day with lot's of event's and Confusion in the market.

1. Two Hydro power companies to start trading in Secondary market. In the GREY MARKET the stock were traded between 135-150 range. Let see at what price the early trade happens and where it get settled finally ??

2. Yesterday Micro Finance Index nose dived more then 1.5% on index. Fast movers Micro Finance were the big Losers yesterday and now which direction it will head now ??

3. Shivam has come closer to to it's crucial support of 580/- let see whether it breaks that level or takes support there ??

4. NEPSE has come closer to it's support level of 1352/- let see whether it breaks that level or take Support there ??

5. Recent NRB Policy to hit the Banking sector severely which has created some sort of Panic among the Bank Share holders. Yesterday we witnessed some players selling Bank Stock and Buying Large Capital based Micro Finance, currently this churning is in Baby steps now. Will this baby step will take large steps ??

6. Lot's of Media reporting news which could trigger a Bear move in the market, Will Bear Movement in Nepse will Happen ???

7. Insurance has not yet corrected much as is still trading far ahead of it's Valuation, Will that Premium will fall down ??

8. Lot's of Player are worried and hopes Nepse won't Hit Lower Circuit Today. Whether any Lower Circuit can been seen today ??


Disclosure :- The above based information are for Study Purpose only. This should not be considered as an Expert Advise. Kindly do proper Research before making any decision.

Happy Investment !
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Tue Aug 06, 2019 7:18 am. »
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 321
Agreed with deepakjee

GBLBS is a best pick for large capital based MFI
@ accumulates loss of 75 crore almost over
@ Authorized Capital to reach 2 arab and bonus share to come from now onwards and capital increment of 1 arab to 2 arab to reach via bonus
@cheap & strong MFI
@ NATIONAL LEVEL MFI
@ 25 years into business and over 190 branches
@ EPS to be maintained at above 30

....Baki Ishwor ko leela....
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1391
As Nepse unable to break 1265/- with Strong volume has given the advantage to Bears. Bears has the tendency to Push the Nepse till 1252/-. To break 1252/- Bear need lot of Energy.

Due to .10% holding Disclosure Policy has put Pressure on Banking Index. Despite that ADBL was outperforming among all Bank and will continue to Outperform in near term also.

Yesterday we saw a Profit booking session in Micro Finance and Profit booking was easily absorbed by market despite Negative Nepse. Micro finance index continued to closed in Positive with minor gain on Index. After the recent run up from small capital based Micro finance now the turn for Large capital based MICRO FINANCE like FMDBL, NUBL, RMDC.

INVESTOR CAN PICK LARGE CAPITAL BASED MICRO FINANCE, IT DOSEN'T MEAN RALLY IS OVER IN LOW CAPITAL BASED MICRO FINANCE. MICRO FINANCE IS IN PURE BULL RUN AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP.

LET SEE HOW 2 NEW HYDRO WILL PERFORM.

HAPPY INVESTMENT !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Mon Aug 05, 2019 7:09 am. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1391
On last Trading Day of the Week the Market could not sustain above it's Resistance Level of 1265/- and thus closed below it's Resistance indicates Bulls look exhaust.

Micro Finance Bull Run to Continue irrespective of Nepse movement.

People who are left out in Micro Bull Run could look to Buy those Micro Finance which has not moved much like FMDBL, RMDC, NUBL etc.etc.

Due to Central Bank requirement on Disclosure of .10% or above Share Holders details will pressure Banking Index. More hampered will Private sectors Bank.

NBL Result look Average and will be Re-rated as soon as it Declare Bonus or Dividend or Both. ADBL valuation looks attractive and Strong Result is expected from it.

Insurance and Hydro is not advised to Buy at Current level as Business Outlook still not Good in these 2 sectors.

No Strong move expected in Nepse until or unless it break its range og 1252/- on lower side and 1265/- on Upper side on closeing basis with Strong Volume.

Happy Investment !!
« Last edit by deepak_mm on Sun Aug 04, 2019 7:33 am. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1391
We witnessed a Dip in NBL Profit. But NBL After Q4 still look fairly Priced to us. The Market has already discounted the Q4 result Price in Advance. If any Dip is seen in it's Price is a Purely a Buy Oppurtiniry. On Sunday if we see any Dip in its Price we will be Buying it.

NBL WILL RE-RATED AS SOON AS IT ANNOUNCE DIVIDEND OR BONUS OR BOTH. TILL THEN WE ARE NEUTRAL ON NBL.

HAPPY INVESTMENT !!
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1391
We witnessed a Dip in NBL Profit. But NBL After Q4 still look fairly Priced to us. The Market has already discounted the Q4 result Price in Advance. If any Dip is seen in it's Price is a Purely a Buy Oppurtiniry. On Sunday if we see any Dip in its Price we will be Buying it.

NBL WILL RE-RATED AS SOON AS IT ANNOUNCE DIVIDEND OR BONUS OR BOTH. TI THEN WE HAVE A NEUTRAL ON NBL.

HAPPY INVESTMENT !!
Member
Registered: Aug 2018
Posts: 11
would definitely like to hear from the pros here esp from deepak ji as he has been getting all his predictions right.... ;)
Member
Registered: Aug 2018
Posts: 11
How about banking sectors?? all the banks have posted good profit and good chance of dividends.........
NBL has great reserves so can we expect a bumper bonus from NBL??? will it be a next great blue chip company?
Member
Registered: Aug 2018
Posts: 11
How about banking sectors?? all the banks have posted good profit and good chance of dividends.........
NBL has great reserves so can we expect a bumper bonus from NBL??? will it be a next great blue chip company?
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 1391
Yes Punji Bhairav Ji Micro Finance to surge further as Micro finance has given a clear Bullish Breakout in INDEX too.
On Wednesday.

At least 1700/- Level will be seen in the Micro finance INDEX.

Your Micro Bull Term has come, Hope you are enjoying the Bull Run.

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