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Grab Chilime Hydro (CHCL) !!!!!!

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Member
Registered: Aug 2015
Posts: 140
Agreed with Meroprofit's perspective on CHCL for very long term ie more than 4- 5 years...as per your analysis ntc nbl could be the better option,aren't they????

BUT,
CURRENTLY MARKET IS DOMINATED BY TRADERS........day traders are active.....weekly trader,semi annual and annual traders are drawing graphs and putting buy sell points....and market is moving with sentiments,where there is huge line of buyers in a particular stock there is a way of profit so I see chcl is best for trading and if we talk long term ie lets say 5-10 years it could be best still,in my views.
Member
Registered: Dec 2017
Posts: 36
I am simply focusing on, if buying CHCL at current valuations can create long-term value for long term investors or not. Be there Kulman and Bam Sarkar or not, Chcl is a great company which will find its way to success any way. Chcl itself is a sensational company.

But at current valuations with market cap of 3800 crores and annual earnings of approx 100 crores, I feel the company is already valued substantially higher in comparison to the expected long term earning potential of the business. In my estimate, for annual earnings of chcl to reach 300 crores, all sister companies should pay 100% earnings as dividends, which is possible only after being debt free.

In my calculations, with equity-debt ratio of each sister company at around 50:50, it might take 5-7 years for these companies after starting production to reduce debt considerably and pay their earnings as reasonable dividend to Chcl, which can boost its income statement.

Back in 2014 too, Chcl market cap was 6300 crores for same reasoning as now but fell down gradually to 2500 crores few months back, which still was exceedingly priced. I believe stocks over time catch up the underlying earnings potential of a business, so for long term investing , its better to look for buying at substantially less than its future worth, considering the estimation of future growth and cash flows.

As hydropower is a huge capital intensive business with negative cash flows, return on investment for hydropower businesses itself is very modest compared to other businesses. Holding these stocks for long term at such valuations can seiously dilute a long term investors return!
« Last edit by meroprofit on Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:00 am. »
Member
Registered: Aug 2015
Posts: 140
mero profit ji...
thanks for ur concern......

some infos u shared are already calculated..

SEE again..
The first most important fact about Chilime:
"It operates 22.1 MW and sells annual 150GWH energy to NEA the long term PPA price."
The second,
Its fundamental strength is very healthy with good size of assets reserve,eps ,networth etc.
The third,
Its sister projects:
1) Rasuwagadhi: 111 MW and CHCL's portion is 33% ie 36.63 MW {http://www.chilime.com.np/rasuwa.html#}
2) M Bhotekoshi: 102 MW and CHCL's portion is 38% ie 38.76 MW {http://www.chilime.com.np/bhotekoshi.html}
3) Sanjen : 57.3 MW and CHCL's portion is 38% ie 21.77 MW {http://www.chilime.com.np/sanjen.html}
Fourth,
From Rasuwagadhi,M Bhotekoshi and Sanjen sum of chcl's energy production will be 97.16 MW plus 22.1 MW =119.26MW

Talking about dividend payout,tenure I agree with you logics....but you forget one MOST IMPORTANT THING

for stock, price we pay not only just for dividend payout but also we pay for its growth.....

Lets wait and see the election ,after that BAM SARKAR....

you know hydro is one of the most potential sectors to generate national income in Nepal.....

NOw everything's gonna settled and economic prosperity at our hand.....
Bam gov will focus on hydro with the help of China....CHCL will invest huge....
We all believe KULMAN,arn't we?????
Member
Registered: Dec 2017
Posts: 36
In my analysis, CHCL or any hydropower stock is not a long term play.
Talking about CHCL, it is said to be constructing 270 MW worth projects but none of them will be in operation at least for next 2-3-4 years, except Sanjen(total 57 MW) which might come in operation next year.
And it should be noted that out of all 270 MW, 33-38% is owned by Chilime, i.e. total capacity belonging to Chcl is only around 98 MW.
Looking at equity-debt ratio of each sister company, it comes around 50:50, so even after starting production, it might take 5-7 years for these companies after starting production to pay all their earnings as reasonable dividend to Chcl.
Now, buying at current valuations with market cap of 3650 crores and earnings at 100 crores per year, we are already paying substantially higher in comparison to the long term earning potential of the business.
So paying such staggering price at current situation is sure to minimize the long term capital gains expected after counting dividends from sister companies as earnings.
Surely, market discounts the future but CHCL or any hydropower stock can rarely be a long term investment.

My view is purely long, at least from 5 years perspective. I don't own any hydropower stock.
« Last edit by meroprofit on Tue Dec 05, 2017 5:29 pm. »
Member
Registered: Jun 2017
Posts: 844
Chcl is my hot long term pick.i want to have 5000 kittas within next 3-4 yrs. If there will be dip in chcl price i will jump in. :mrgreen:
Member
Registered: Aug 2015
Posts: 140
17000+ viewers within short time frame...it means so many investors are interested in chcl...4000MW within 4 years....I thing this year will boom hydro sector like last year insurance index boomed 4000 to neRLY 10,000.

BUT ,
ONE SHOULD NOT MAKE FOOL DECISION WHILE PICKING UP HYDRO STOCKS....

My favourite hydro STOCKS are

CHCL....no 1..............................
BPCL....NO 2..............................
SHPC,HPPL.........comes after...

Lets imagine if chcl contracts new projects it will give huge bonus/right.....it might boom at least 60% plus what its price is now
Member
Registered: May 2014
Posts: 237
somebody ji, congrats. here i posted two technical analysis videos link from youtube to make your future strategy easy, for chilime. Both analysis guru signals, chilime price go further if its price go up to 1000 and stable for few days.

what is entry and exit points of chilime ( published 18 nov 2017 - 8.50 min. Vid) :-

https://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=A0LEVyNkaiNa2Q0AXBpXNyoA;_ylu=X3oDMTByOHZyb21tBGNvbG8DYmYxBHBvcwMxBHZ0aWQDBHNlYwNzcg--/RV=2/RE=1512299237/RO=10/RU=https%3a%2f%2fwww.youtube.com%2fwatch%3fv%3dC0oMIZwm5C4-/RK=2/RS=irpj9TgZz.TndsNYHPrd3u0dJfc-

Technical analysis on the present scenario of market with Sagun Shakya sir ( published 2 Dec,2017- 47.59 min. Vid)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fj5K1nCjN1o
Member
Registered: Jun 2017
Posts: 844
85K profit from 500 kitta i managed to buy beginning of nov. but i have not cashed it yet. i believe it will go over 1000 easily.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 60
विद्युत उत्पादनको सर्वेक्षण अनुमतिपत्र प्राप्त भएको जानकारी ।
श्री विदयुत विकास विभाग, अनुमतिपत्र महाशाखाबाट मिति २०७३/०६/०१ मा यस कम्पनीले बुढी गण्डकी प्रोक जलविद्युत आयोजना (४२० मे.वा.) र सेती नदी-३ (SR-3) अर्धजलाशययुक्त (PROR) जलविद्युत आयोजना (१६५मे.वा.) को विद्युत उत्पादन सर्वेक्षण अनुमतिपत्र प्राप्त भएको ब्यहोरा सहर्ष जानकारी गराउँदछौँ ।
See:http://www.chilime.com.np/press-release/58.html
Member
Registered: May 2014
Posts: 237
http://www.bikashnews.com/2017/11/13/78560.html


25'/. income tax yo barsha prapta garne income ma navai aagami aarthik barsha ko income ma tirnu parne bujhiyo. yes pachhi net profit ma thulo decrease hunu sovavik hunechha. But 14.8 mw ko sanjen le yehi aaundo aasadh bata production thalne vayeko le yo rakam lai kehi had samma make up garna sahaj hune dekhinchha.

Mahattopurna paksha vaneko CHCL le servey laicence prapta gari banauna lageka 3 ota aagami naya aayojana haru ko lagi chahine massive amounts ( 1 KHARBA 50 ARBA ) ko byabastha garnu parne huchha.

CHCL sanga strong reserve ( 5 arba 21 crore ko) raheko chha, aagami barsha dekhi yo amount lai share capital ma badalne vaniyeko chha. yesko artha aagami barsha dekhi no cash but attractive bonus share ko samvawana dekhinchha.
Member
Registered: Jun 2017
Posts: 844
wow, AGM ma kulman le chch kehi barsha ma 100% bonus dina sakne awastha ma bhaneko matra CHCL boom.

Well my plan to grab chcl on low price went down the drain.still managed to buy 500 kitta around 780 rs.

I want to have 5000 kitta by 2078. my long term plan.
Member
Registered: May 2014
Posts: 237
CHCL: 1st Quarter Report

http://www.nepalipaisa.com/NewsDetail.aspx/CHCL/Chilime-Hydropower-Company-Limited/id/18593
Member
Registered: Jun 2017
Posts: 844
short term bounce or market really going up ?
Member
Registered: May 2014
Posts: 237
21st AGM of CHCL :-

https://setopati.com/kinmel/construction/104418
Member
Registered: May 2014
Posts: 237
CHCL;- long run horse
http://www.merolagani.com/NewsDetail.aspx?newsID=36556
« Last edit by mero sathi on Thu Nov 09, 2017 4:24 pm. »
Member
Registered: Aug 2017
Posts: 71
Location: Chandigarh, India
New video posted on YouTube regarding the short term and long term Outlook for NEPSE. Please find the link below.

https://youtu.be/gLT0yEo9PeA
_______________
Bishnu Prasad Basyal, CFA
Member
Registered: Jun 2017
Posts: 844
i am waiting for chcl to come under 650. hope it comes soon. :mrgreen:
Moderator
Registered: Jun 2013
Posts: 574
Location: Kathmandu, Nepal
I hope CHCL remains on or falls below current level for another fortnight. I have some money coming in then ;) ;) ;)
Member
Registered: May 2014
Posts: 237
Few months ago most of our Mutual Funds holds nominal Shares of CHCL. But now CHILIME (Rs 17.45 Crore) stands near Top 10th of thier Favourite Investment . It is sure, The Professionally Managed Investment Funds
will pour huge sums of money in Chilime, in future also.

Source: Current scenario of Mutual Funds Investments: NTC, NLIC and NABILP are favourite of Mutual Funds,
( ShareSansar, Nov 3, 2017)
Member
Registered: May 2014
Posts: 237
......
« Last edit by mero sathi on Tue Nov 07, 2017 10:37 pm. »
Member
Registered: Jun 2017
Posts: 844
waiting for chilime to come around 650. then ALL-IN. :mrgreen:
Member
Registered: Oct 2016
Posts: 268
nepalese market is run by mafias.

chcl was the darling before, tyes paxi aafno share 2500+ ma beche ani yo company ko share tahas nahas pare traders haru le, tyehi mafiya ka ashirwad le

tyes paxi insurance and microfinance badaunu badaye ani feri tahas nahas pare. especially SICL, NLIC and LICN

then 8 arab banking came, banking badaunu badaye and feri with the help of media tahas nahas pare.

aba feri chcl badaune khel ho yo. wait and watch chcl kata puryauxan, ini haru le buy gari sakeka chan.

aba bank uthauxan ajja sasto rate ma. cycle goes on......


Morale: don't buy companies based on nepse index. Buy companies for ownership through the long term.

Everyone knows chcl is a great company. so relax and enjoy nepse


happy investment
Member
Registered: Aug 2015
Posts: 79
Its long term stock....when I has to pick up a hydro scrip...chcl is my first priority...but...what is there
...
Agree with 25/75 and mero sathi chcl profit is going massive..
But....
This is not the right time...estimated time left more 2 years...production...central line ma cnnection ani sells gari profit ma jan ajha thap 2-3 sal gardaa 2022 tira balla aaulaa chcl ko din
Natra ahie gajab faida hola ra??
Lets discuss friends..
Member
Registered: May 2014
Posts: 237
25/75 ji,

Fifth.....

Chilime le 950 MW ko more new projects haru pani banaudai.

http://www.karobardaily.com/news/82380
« Last edit by mero sathi on Thu Nov 02, 2017 7:17 pm. »
Member
Registered: Jun 2017
Posts: 844
waiting for chcl to drop about 10% and i will be doing ALL-IN :mrgreen:

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