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Optimist Vs Pessimist

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Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4795
गभर्नर डा. चिरञ्जीबी नेपालको कार्यकाल समीक्षा: कठिन परिस्थितिमा पनि ऐतिहासिक काम


should I laugh or kill myself?




I, I the only one who Predicted, made correct analysis in the entire universe going to say this-

"Chirinjivi Nepal, is the biggest curse in the history of monitory policy".


Last for year was suppose to be the best, golden time in the history of Nepal. Before yuraj k, He is the main who destroyed Nepal through monitory policy, blackmailing and corruption.

Corruption- he came into power through corruption and he lest criminals like NICA, Global destroy capital market.


Last for year was suppose to be the best years in the history of Nepal, but Nepal suffered not just liquidity crisis but also interest rate crisis.

Before yuraj k came into power, chirinjivi been destroying Nepal for first two year.


He was too incompetent to solve liquidity crisis. But, interest crisis was all his doing. He forced Bfis to give 13/14% on FD. Only country suffering from economic crisis have such a high rate, but NRB forced BFIs into 13/14% fd rate.



Chirinjivi Nepal single handedly destroyed share market. He made monitory policy just to crash the market. And during his final year, he tried to save share market but could not.


Many criminals tried to crash share marked when it made record. But could not and they used chirinjivi nepal to crash share market through monitory policy and since then share market still could not gain confidence back.

He became governor with the black money of some banker, and later he kept on attacking banks. Kept on destroying banks with every monitory policy he read.

But never punished banks like NICA for their crime which destroyed not just capital market, but also share market.


Sati ko sarap.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4795
Current psyche of mass:

Wait for a few day.

What happens then:

Every body tries to buy at once, some gets it then

One of two will happen:

1: either 99% will miss the chance

or

2: when market is about to hit 5% circuit, selling pressure will increase then market start to crash again, when market stats to crash, those who made decision pull back.

Share market never works like this, here some buy some sell and market run based on fundamental.

Wonder what would happen to those, who sold at huge loss hoping to buy back at even lower rate, if they dont get to buy back at lower price or at slightly higher price?

remember, those who are selling for months are not buying, some body else are buying.

crowd can not enter into room at the same time. that principle is the reason, in civilized world, market is stable. while in nepal!!!
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4795
We can communicate in this forum Kashpra ji.

I have sent you a mail.
Member
Registered: Nov 2017
Posts: 12
Thank you Rising sir, and how can i get in touch with you? please mail me sir.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4795
Kashpra ji, NICasia is good, has good future, when interest rate settles, this bank can do good too. has increase deposit by a lot.

But about first qtr growth, when first qtr growth is 20% this year's growth will be around 20% not 80%. Unless something unnatural happens or happened last year- then could go way up or way down.
Member
Registered: Nov 2017
Posts: 12
Recently, NIC asia has growth 20% in just one qtr, at the year end it will be 80% growth if it continue like this. Hence, this is just a move of the initial tide. I hope it growth will continue.

and also my geniue request to dear The Rising Sun sir, how is ur perception on NIC asia, will you please write me on myprakash.chhetri@gmail.com or provide me a way to communicate you. Cheers.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4795
Most of the dev are really good, there are many listed companies which are very good too.

But, MNBBL is god.

MNBBL's growth is great, has been proven for years. Its deposit/capital (2.5 arab capital- which it is still behind) ratio is back to golden days, so when interest rate crisis ends, its EPS will reach to good old days level, in 2/3 year it will surpass previous great EPS point even after giving a lot of bonus, I believe it will keep on giving bonus for a decade since it is becoming Bank some day in near future. (some member in this forum has said that GBBL is also becoming bank).


In my view, within 3 year, if NRN enters NEPSE- many companies price will increase 2/3 times, good companies' price will increase 5/7 times, where as, my gut tells me, MNBBL's price will increase 8/10 times. I am expecting 3000-5000 price of MNBBL. EPS above 70 even after bonus shares.


MNBBL is god, GBBL is very good (my view).
Member
Registered: Jun 2017
Posts: 555
gbbl price 240 bonus 15% still remaining.

why mnbbl at close to 600 is the best?

Please enlighten this stupid brain. :mrgreen:
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4795
MNBBL is god for long term, so, dont forget to invest 30% of investment in MNBBL and balance the rest of the portfolio.
Member
Registered: Nov 2017
Posts: 145
go for SANIMA, MNBBL, NLIC...in long term these bank/ dev bank/ insurance company will do good...:)
Member
Registered: Nov 2015
Posts: 4
which stock is best for long term investment?
Member
Registered: Nov 2017
Posts: 145
excellent experience sharing by "somebody"....i too was thinking the same way, i m into the market since last 8 months and within this time i have seen the fluctuation in the market and have realized that holding onto stocks just thinking u r a long term investor is rubbish!!...i m too into a loss but what i have understood is that when market goes good, sell the stocks and look for another opportunity coming ur way....do not hold!!
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4795
Member
Registered: Nov 2017
Posts: 12
Thanks The Rising Sun ji, I got your point, not to wait for bullish market but watch the bearish market and catch good companies.
Member
Registered: Jun 2017
Posts: 555
ya i agree its for short term player.

i will share my experience, i started investing 2 yrs ago.i started with 5 lakhs. slowly i increased my capital around when nepse was 1500. i kept on accumulating shares and my invested amount reached 20 lakhs. Nepse kept on falling..and i kept on thinking that it has to bounce back. i invested another 10 lakhs. Nepse kept on falling and reached to 1300.I was very worried but i knew that market will bounce back. So kept on investing. The whole cycle lasted for a year or so.

Afterwards market started increasing. I read of lots of books and my motto became "I am a long term investor". Market started to increase and it reached about 1650. So after one and half year cycle, i was on profit about 20%. I didnot sell as my main motto is "I am a long term investor". Nowadays market is on downward roll and i am back to where i started. LOSS.

So after about 2 yrs of cycle i have invested about 50 lakhs and i am on loss of about 5-10%.

So greatest lesson i learned is that TIMING the market is the key whether you are a short term or long term investor. IF there is a downward trend, you have to be very careful on entering the market even if you are long term investor.

So hold on to your stocks if you are long term investor but think twice before buying stock on falling market.

i have another 10-20 lakhs to invest, but i am undecided whether its right time. And this time it will be for short term.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4795
I agree Somebody ji, but that principle is just for short term players. When transaction cross billion, market would be a lot higher and for long term investors, it would be in risky zone.

If we study current trend, when transaction increase by just 10/25 crore, market would increase by more than a percent, what would happen if it cross billion. And to reach billion, transaction would first need to reach 60 crore then 75 then 85 crore. During all these days, market would already have increase more than 5/10%, and for market to increase 10%, price of good company need to increase 15/20%. Which would be late for long term investor.


So, for me, investing and waiting for few more months is far better than buying at 20%+ rate.

But no body knows, what exactly would happen. All are guess. Some guess is better than other- the only fact.
Member
Registered: Jun 2017
Posts: 555
invest when market's daily business starts to cross 1 arba.

You will not lose.

But timing is the key.

if you buy now, you may be loss for months until trasaction volume starts to grow.

So, wait for a signal, and jump in. :mrgreen:
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4795
Profit-game Ji, By investing 10% at a time for long term would reduce risk as well as give opportunity. Little loss or little gain.

Short term trader does not care about NEPSE, they can invest while Index is high or ignore even when index is way low. Their only interest is 'Index has to grow in short time. May be that is why, when NEPSE is this low, most of the big short term investor have not invested.


If those short term investor joins, long term investors wont be able to join at low Index. I have heard, suppose X- price is currently 555, they say they will invest when price reach 570, they think, when price reach 570, means, short term investor has entered market and bull is about to begin.

But for long term investor, they should buy when price is 555.

After short term investor enters, within a few days, price would cross 600, if long term investor buys above 600- after short term investor exits, price could crash to 590 then long term investor will be in loss.

That is why long term investor should invest before short term trader enters and stop investment for long term after short term trader has already joined.


In share market, like any other business, he have to take risk. If we choose right price, there may be risk in short term, but with in a year or two, long term investor will always be in profit in developing, or under developed market like ours.
Member
Registered: Nov 2017
Posts: 12
The Rising Sun ji,
I agree with your opinion. But the market is declining day by day without any reason. Number of shares flooded due to capital increase. Short term traders are blocking the bullish market. In this situation, it is difficult to invest what to purchase C banks? D banks? hydropowers? hotels????.......
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4795
Long term Investor wants their investment to increase 10 times. If they invest now, NEPSE could reach 15000 in 10/12 year. If long term investor wait and only get to invest when NEPSE is at 2000, which could reach with in few months, to get 10 times return, they will have to wait 12/15 year.

So if they invest now instead of waiting for next few month, to get 10 times return, they may have to wait 2/3 more year.

2/3 month VS 2/3 year.


On the other hand, for short term investor, they want 10% return with in a few month. They dont care if they start at 1500 NEPSE or 2000 NEPSE.

So long term investor should invest now rather than wait for short term investor to start investing hoping they would drive market higher.
Member
Registered: Nov 2017
Posts: 32
be optimistic
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 60
investment wins in long run...we should choose at right cost right stock..........
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4795
Only optimist could win, pessimist always lose in economy cause its universal law- that value of money always demise over time.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4795
Optimist Vs Pessimist:

O: invests 10,00,000 in NEPSE when nepse is at 1500.
P: Deposit in FD, 10,00,000.

-Market crashes to 1000 as per some negative individuals.
P: khubai investor bhaya thyo, 4,00,000, swaha. murkha, khais. ha ha.
O: Every thing about economy, Listed company is positive, no need to worry, Need patience.

After seven year,
O: NEPSE crosss 10,000, and investment cross 70,00,000.
P: FD reach 17,00,000.

Life style after 7 year,
O: by paying bank with capital gain from investment, 15,00,000 every year, will purchase car, home.
P: With interest from FD, 1,00,000 will rent 2 room flat in some galli.


P: tesko bhagya ramro, ma sanga paisa bhaide, mero pani san hunthyo.


NEPALI SOCIETY.

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