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Nepse Long Term Trend

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Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7426
Now someone may rise from the grave and say "told you so." That NEPSE will crash to 1000 cause of technical analysis.

I say, we should feel luck if Nepse stay with in 1000 till Biddwan yuraj k is alive.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2089
Compare to few Months bank now the PE has come down for many stocks !!

Now we can see further downside in PE of many stocks in days to come !!!

:P
Member
Registered: Aug 2017
Posts: 71
Location: Chandigarh, India
The rising sun Ji,
There's no theory in the financial markets that average PE can't move below 10.
So, I don't believe in pe investing.
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Bishnu Prasad Basyal, CFA
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7426
During great crash, from 1100 to 300, average PE ratio may have crashed to 10-15.

If, NEPSE crashes to 1000 in two year, average PE ratio may crash to 7-12.
Member
Registered: Aug 2017
Posts: 71
Location: Chandigarh, India
Dear meroprofit ji,
I have never claimed that it will behave exactly as I think. There's is possibility of wave 2 of primary degree wave to come down to 1100-900 over a period of two years. As you know the fact that Nepal is market for buyers only. So there is many short term opportunities in which they can earn short term profit. I am just helping them. Being a trader, you need to be in the market.
That's why I am trying to give you short term picture. Moreover, it's necessary to keep watch on short term trend as I said market may take another direction as opposite to what I have perceived.
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Bishnu Prasad Basyal, CFA
Member
Registered: Aug 2015
Posts: 140
I don't have knowledge about Elliot Wave pattern ...I tried to learn and understand and quested at investopedia..and found it has been established as doctrine ..theory...principle....but not easy to understand at one read...we must have practical efforts...Bishnu ji has made good effort ..appreciated...his level of interpretation might go wrong but theory shouldnt ...
MAJOR WAVE AND MINOR WAVE you must be clear about that...
Member
Registered: Dec 2017
Posts: 36
I just completely agree with the gist that, The Rising Sun ji is trying to tell here.

I appreciate bishnu ji that you are putting so much effort and posting videos for us here, but also have few basic questions to you on technical analysis projections.

If the long term trend is more than 100% perfect for Nepal and NEPSE, why is it necessary to time the market so much and waste our precious time forecasting short term?

Don't you think forecasts generally tell more about forecaster's wish rather than future?
Member
Registered: Aug 2017
Posts: 71
Location: Chandigarh, India
Dear rising sun,
I have been talking about only 61.8% retacement of the rise from 300-1900. What's wrong in that?
Didn't you see it's falling more than 75% in previous instances from the peaks?
This time I am only taking about 50% fall from the peak point. Is it exaggeration?
Moreover I am focusing on long term bull market in my videos. My target in NEPSE is 10000 by 2028-30. I am very bullish in long term. But for short term it's bearish.
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Bishnu Prasad Basyal, CFA
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7426
Bishnu bash ji, I have no technical knowledge but do follow it. and trying to use common sense.

I have some disagreement with you. Let's say, our NEPSE started from 100, first bull- from 100 it reached 1100 then crashed to 300, from 300 it reached 1900 and crashed backed to 1200.

So my disagreement is, how could NEPSE come below 1200 again?

Other technical analyst are saying, if NEPSE come down from X point, it will fall further, if it sustain X level it will reach way high. But You have been talking about only crashing to 1000? Why there is disagreement between technocrats when all read same book?

If NEPSE, SEBON, Govt brings right policy before NEPSE crashes to 1000, like you been saying, Common sense says, NEPSE will reach big height, than only some kind of big event line war could crash NEPSE.

I think, policy is on its way, and you said, NEPSE would take a year or two to crash to 1000, before then positive policy would arrive. And Next govt's adviser has good plan to solve banking crisis too. So could 1000 still be possible?????
Member
Registered: Aug 2017
Posts: 71
Location: Chandigarh, India
New video regarding Nepse short term trend have been posted. Please find the link below;

https://youtu.be/Lf-F6dFTj9A
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Bishnu Prasad Basyal, CFA
Member
Registered: Nov 2017
Posts: 12
Dear Bishnu bas ji,
Thanks for your new post. Till the date your prediction is going according to your opinion. Sometimes, prediction/opinion/analysis used to be failed in Nepal.
Member
Registered: Aug 2017
Posts: 71
Location: Chandigarh, India
New video regarding Nepse short term trend have been posted. Please find the link below;

https://youtu.be/QWl-bpO0Xwk
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Bishnu Prasad Basyal, CFA
Member
Registered: Aug 2017
Posts: 71
Location: Chandigarh, India
New video regarding Nepse short term trend have posted.
You can find it below;

https://youtu.be/7tUh5t9Zylg
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Bishnu Prasad Basyal, CFA
Member
Registered: Aug 2017
Posts: 71
Location: Chandigarh, India
Dear profit game,
I am nowhere confused about my expectations about the market. I am rightly predicted it in the past. But it doesn't guarantee that the future trend will be same as I expected.
It's Market dear. No-one is perfect in this or any market but if you analyse as the market it is then then your chances of winning will be higher. This the way of analysing the market. Nothing is certain but probable.
Moreover I am extending my alternative count. I have clearly mentioned in my video what is preferred count and what is the alternative scenario.
And every time when I posted a video I have told in it that if anything changes then I will inform you in time. What does it mean???
It means that I am talking about the probability but not the certainty.
Hope now you got my point.
I appreciate your comments anyway.
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Bishnu Prasad Basyal, CFA
Member
Registered: Aug 2017
Posts: 71
Location: Chandigarh, India
New video regarding Nepse short term trend have posted.
You can find it below;

https://youtu.be/7tUh5t9Zylg
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Bishnu Prasad Basyal, CFA
Member
Registered: Nov 2017
Posts: 3
Thanx a lot Bishnu Ji ........
Member
Registered: Nov 2017
Posts: 12
Bishnu bas ji,
In your last post you committed that to post your your new interpretation on Friday. Are you confused with your theoretical trends to analyse your upcoming trends of NEPSE. I would like remind that Nepal is unpredictable. All theories, modules, experiments fail in Nepal.
Member
Registered: Nov 2017
Posts: 12
Bishnu Bas ji,
Hope we will see your analysis of future market trend.
Member
Registered: Aug 2017
Posts: 71
Location: Chandigarh, India
http://www.sharesansar.com/c/index-history-data.html
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Bishnu Prasad Basyal, CFA
Member
Registered: Nov 2017
Posts: 3
But the price history shows no historical data for nepse in sharesansar.
Member
Registered: Aug 2017
Posts: 71
Location: Chandigarh, India
From shareshansar
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Bishnu Prasad Basyal, CFA
Member
Registered: Nov 2017
Posts: 3
Hello Bishnu Bas ji,
How did you find nepse OHLC data. Can you inform us how to access the data.

regards,
bitu
Member
Registered: Aug 2017
Posts: 71
Location: Chandigarh, India
New video posted regarding Nepse Elliott Wave trend. Please find it below;

https://youtu.be/msJ6mTyos28
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Bishnu Prasad Basyal, CFA
Member
Registered: Nov 2017
Posts: 12
Dear Bishnu Bas Ji,
Thanks for your analysis. I am new investor and watching your weekly analysis based on the scientific basis of the share market trends. I think, Nepal is unpredictable and shows extraordinary results in every sector. However, the tools developed for market interpretation also included unpredictable population too. I like posts of two other members of this forum are The Rising Sun and bazarguru.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7426
नेप्से परिसूचकले डबल बटम बनाउने सम्भावना देखिएको छ । डबल बटम अर्थात् अंगे्रजी आकारको डब्लु आकृति बनेमा बजार वा मूल्य सूचक बढ्ने विश्लेषण गरिन्छ ।
https://www.onlinekhabar.com/2017/11/640371

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