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Nepse Long Term Trend

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Member
Registered: Nov 2017
Posts: 32
dARO DIE BISU JI LE MILAUCHHAN KI KE HO
Member
Registered: Aug 2017
Posts: 71
Location: Chandigarh, India
Dear "The time Line",
My wave analysis is not baseless. I am not the market and i am only analyst of this this market. I can be wrong at any time but the market is not wrong. Just watch trend ahead. Lets see what market tells us. One thing is clear that the larger trend is down but my wave degrees can be different.

Thanks for commenting. Valuable and logical comments are always welcome.
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Bishnu Prasad Basyal, CFA
Member
Registered: Aug 2017
Posts: 71
Location: Chandigarh, India
Fear is running high. Now, everyone start believing NEPSE index drift much lower. This is perfect recipe for Short term bottom. Probably Short term bottom already made @1452 or may take next major support near 1440-1430. Banking index has significant support @1220. Short term bounce back should start soon. Watch my video for detail analysis of Nepal Stock market (NEPSE) index and Banking sub index.

Click below for Video;

https://youtu.be/-TcOZ5HWPyk
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Bishnu Prasad Basyal, CFA
Member
Registered: Aug 2015
Posts: 79
Bisnu Basyal ji!

You have shown NEPSE could fall 1460-70 line its proved...you are genuine....it should bounce back to 1600-1610 level within a month.....if we count days lets say Mansir fourth week beginning....

Now your days begun....today is D1 if NEPSE fall below 1460 lets say 1450 or further below you wave pattern analysis would be baseless...you will be blamed...
Member
Registered: Aug 2017
Posts: 71
Location: Chandigarh, India
New video posted on YouTube regarding the short term and long term Outlook for NEPSE. Please find the link below.

https://youtu.be/gLT0yEo9PeA
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Bishnu Prasad Basyal, CFA
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2089
the Overall Market is going to move sideways bcoz its mainly dominated by banks. But We will see upside moves in sectors such as Telecom, trading , Manufacturing & Hotels.

If Nepse moves up by 10-15% we will other sectors INDEX moving up by 47-83% like Hotel , trading , Telecom, Manufacturing they will move the NEPSE up but Heavy weight age banks in the INDEX will be pulling it down.

i like Company like NTC, BBC, RBCL, UNL, OHL, SHL, TRH, CIT , NMB, NIBL, Nepal sbi & sanima as a good pick in these markets :-

Disclosure : Kindly buy based on your own decision & expert advice

Happy Investing !! :? :)
Member
Registered: Aug 2017
Posts: 71
Location: Chandigarh, India
My Latest video regarding NEPSE

https://youtu.be/gLT0yEo9PeA
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Bishnu Prasad Basyal, CFA
Member
Registered: Aug 2017
Posts: 71
Location: Chandigarh, India
My new interview on baazar guru at Himalaya TV.

https://youtu.be/pTmxousS-Y
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Bishnu Prasad Basyal, CFA
Member
Registered: Aug 2017
Posts: 71
Location: Chandigarh, India
Please find new Video Regarding NEPSE Short Term Update below;

[https://youtu.be/73NcyoqQNHQ]
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Bishnu Prasad Basyal, CFA
Member
Registered: Aug 2017
Posts: 71
Location: Chandigarh, India
Please find new Video Regarding NEPSE Short Term Update below;

https://youtu.be/Cat4mA3kH0s
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Bishnu Prasad Basyal, CFA
Member
Registered: Aug 2017
Posts: 71
Location: Chandigarh, India
Please find new Video Regarding NEPSE Short Term Update below;

https://youtu.be/Cat4mA3kH0s
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Bishnu Prasad Basyal, CFA
Member
Registered: Aug 2017
Posts: 71
Location: Chandigarh, India
Dear LBS,
Kindly do not mix Individual Stock's wave analysis with that of NEPSE. A particular share price and NEPSE may form a different wave pattern at the same time. As i have always stated that NEPSE and Banking Sub-index may be in different degree of wave. Similarly, I have also mentioned that Insurance Sector probably have finished the entire cycle wave III whereas NEPSE and Banking Sub-Index may have finished only Primary wave 1 of Cycle wave III. That means NEPSE and Banking index has a lot of room to grow after completing Primary wave 2 decline. Whereas the Insurance sector is concerned, it may under-perform other indices in upcoming rally.
I have already mentioned in my all videos that there is still one probability left which suggest NEPSE may move up to 1800-1840 if it manages to close above 1625. But larger degree wave remains the same. In either case, NEPSE may be finishing or has already finished primary Degree wave 1 and wave 2 decline must follow before rising in Primary degree 3 which is the strongest and most powerful wave.

To answer your query, i will begin with your first question. First of all, technical analysis itself includes all factor such as fundamentals, news, events etc. The shift in pattern or public mood does not change overnight. But, it is building over a period of time. Only technical analysis can identify such a shift in public mood. If mood is changing then price will give you the prior indication. As i have already warned about the short term shift in the Sentiment in my Fridays update and suggest you to buy for short term bounce back.

In nutshell to be precise, fundamentals does not change the mood but mood changes the fundamental. Stock market analysis is not the simple economics where you can put simple demand and supply analysis. Rather it is opposite of it. Fundamentally, there should be high demand when prices are low and vice versa when prices are high. But, in stock market things are just opposite. In stock market, demand is high when prices are high and vice versa when prices are low. So, never be fooled by fundamentals while investing in Stock market. Stock market does not follows the "Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH)" as suggested by fundamental analysts but it only follows sentiments and moods. Stock market is totally sentiment driven market nothing else. Thus to conclude, "Stock market is simply function of crowd sentiments and moods nothing else".
To answer your second question. What if there is composition change in the index????
It depends on how the composition of index changes. If index includes only a few stocks which represents not more than 10% of the weight then it should not affect the larger degree wave change. But, if it is re-composited by giving more than 10% of the total weight then It is not the index as we are thinking about. That means it is then the different index we are talking about not the index as we were studying prior. Then, it need to be recalculated based on new components of the index. But if new components are added over a longer period of time then overall sentiment reflection still remains same.

Moreover, any bonus declaration does not alter the price. If a particular stock of an index declare bonus then prices should be adjusted according to ratios and Index calculation is not altered. So, there is no effect of bonus declaration in the index as prices are adjusted according bonus announcement.
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Bishnu Prasad Basyal, CFA
Member
Registered: Mar 2014
Posts: 163
Dear Bisnu ji,
One thing always striking within me is that how your technical wave reacts when any drastic change occures in fundamental side. For example, as if NTC declared 60% bonus share and four five new real sector companies like NCELL ,Surya Nepal ,Dabar Nepal enter into market, what will be the NEPSE wave condition? Are you calculating wave with the proposition of nuetral fundamental side? If so, your calculation will be always betraying you.
« Last edit by LBS on Sat Sep 16, 2017 10:54 am. »
Member
Registered: Aug 2017
Posts: 71
Location: Chandigarh, India
NEPSE is very much near to form it's short term bottom. Currently i am expecting Minor wave 1 decline is about to complete with completed Minute wave (iii). Minute Wave (iv) may consolidate near 1550-1560 and then drop below 1480 will conclude the Minor wave 1 of Intermediate Wave (A) of Primary wave 2.
Post completion of Minot Wave 1 near 1470-1450, Minor wave 2 may retrace towards 1600-1625.
On the contrary, a sustained break above 1625 will force me change wave count to alternative structure which suggest that the Primary Degree Wave 1 is still pending (thin probably but can not be denied).

In nutshell, Short term trading opportunity may be arriving for wave 2 retracement although medium term trend still suggest downside.

Find the video link below for more clarity;

https://youtu.be/62ToHHb2rLQ
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Bishnu Prasad Basyal, CFA
Member
Registered: Aug 2017
Posts: 71
Location: Chandigarh, India
Dear LBS,
Two main indices matters the most. For the rest it is only informative. Other indices may not behave as exactly as NEPSE AND BANKING INDEX.
But just keep in mind that sentiments matter the most not EPS or anything else. And to judge the sentiment, technical analysis is the only tool we can use not fundamental analysis.
Moreover, I never count on EPS or valuations when when studying technical analysis. Everything is reflected in the price history whether it's news, fundamental or sentiments.
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Bishnu Prasad Basyal, CFA
Member
Registered: Mar 2014
Posts: 163
Dear Bisnu ji,
I watch your video projection.Thank you for your continued update. But I stuck with something missing in your calculation. The development bank indicator includes both micro finance and dv.bank.If you look at the market rates of dev.banks with its indicator, it does not seem matched. EPS around 25 with 50% annual growth dev.bank companies at the market rate of around 250, become prey of the dev.bank indicator. Is it not possible to analize seperately?
Member
Registered: Aug 2017
Posts: 71
Location: Chandigarh, India
New Video link regarding NEPSE and Other sub indies can found below;

[https://youtu.be/09vNUEemF0k]
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Bishnu Prasad Basyal, CFA
Member
Registered: Aug 2017
Posts: 71
Location: Chandigarh, India
can contact me through mail i.e. bishnu.p.basyal@gmail.com
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Bishnu Prasad Basyal, CFA
Member
Registered: Jun 2013
Posts: 109
hello bishnu sir

how can we contact you? i want to learn many things on this.
Member
Registered: Aug 2017
Posts: 71
Location: Chandigarh, India
I am expecting following path for Primary degree wave two. Please find video in the following link

https://youtu.be/g1CYBAp0BME
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Bishnu Prasad Basyal, CFA
Member
Registered: Aug 2017
Posts: 71
Location: Chandigarh, India
Hi Sandy,
Any software can be used for technical analysis. It's study which matters not the software. I use amibroker for charting NEPSE INDICES
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Bishnu Prasad Basyal, CFA
Member
Registered: Aug 2017
Posts: 71
Location: Chandigarh, India
Dear LBS,
I am expecting a Zig-Zag correction for NEPSE in this primary degree wave 2 correction. Wave 2 generally are Zig-Zag. But, this is only an expectation. Exact form of wave two will see later as market develop. Kindly watch my vedio for more details.
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Bishnu Prasad Basyal, CFA
Member
Registered: Sep 2017
Posts: 7
Dear Bisnu_bas ji,

Technical analysis (Charting) ko lagi kun software/platform use garnu huncha? I am really interested in technical analysis and currently doing some homework about it. Practically charting use garyo vane ali chado sikna payincha ki vanne ho. Aile,Candlestick ra Fibonacci retracement ko barema padhai chu. Looking forward to do masters in Finance/investment. It would be a pleasure know.Thank You, :)
« Last edit by ckshrestha on Mon Sep 04, 2017 8:33 pm. »
Member
Registered: Mar 2014
Posts: 163
Bisnu_bas ji,
Would you mind informing me what kind of correction is onging in nepse ? Is it jigjag ,flat or trangular correction? Please inform us by using your technical instruments. I am a little bit weak in technical aspect.
Member
Registered: Aug 2017
Posts: 71
Location: Chandigarh, India
As stated earlier, two path towards 1000 is expected. Either, it will drop directly towards 1000 or bounce from 1460 towards 1800 can happen and then drop towards 1000. In both cases, a significant drop is possible before starting of another bull market.


Click Below for Chart and Projection.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bx9RTYf1lazmT2V3a1JhMXNmRVk/view?usp=sharing

New Video Uploaded in You Tube describing Elliott Wave and NEPSE Elliott Wave Analysis. Click below for Video.

http://youtu.be/HNPHQjHUB-g?hd=1
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Bishnu Prasad Basyal, CFA

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