Forum


ShareSansar Main Page

New Topic

GDP of Nepal

Moderators: बिमलमान, Dilbert.

Post Reply

Page: « < 1 2 3 4 >

Author Post
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4562
In 3/6 month, I could revise GDP growth to close to 0 or negative/recession. I am suspecting, monitory policy could hit economy very hard.

Earlier, I was expecting, fiscal and monitory policies hitting economy hard.



In India, when modi won the election, their share market increased a lot, private sector welcomed. And today, Indian is seeing higher GDP growth.


While in Nepal, as soon as biddwan Yuraj K became finance minister- private sector was disappointed and share market has been crashing even harder. Has any economy in the world prospered while private sector and share market lost confidence???? None.


It takes months even years to find out, how your economy is doing. But there are few early indicators 8 class Oli can watch for Nepali context:
1: BFIs borrowing (bad if not enough borrower.
2: Dashain is near, so dashain spending. Cause of new local bodies, spending may rise outside cities, but in cities ........
3: Confidence of private sector and share market.
4: Import for dashan and tihar, which should have already began.
5: Bfi deposit.
6: Meat consumption (if there is real data).
7:
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4562
- Economy of a nation is economy of a nation. GDP growth is GDP growth.

Nepal's normal GDP growth is 6%. If govt do nothing or if govt does not harm, Nepal GDP growth reach around 6%.

GDP or GDP growth means Nepal's GDP or GDP growing under constant conditions. i.e- Nepal GDP or GDP was growing under previous tax rates.

And

Nepal GDP or GDP growth was growing by using capital/bank loan based on past policies.


Now our biddwan dalal gothalo ka santan Yuraj K has Increased TAX RATES and prevented bank loan from going to those sector which were helping GDP or GDP growth.

Cause of his new high tax rate and blocking of capital flow to those sector which were fueling yesterday's GDP or GDP growth will now be affected. Which means, contribution of yesterday's sector to GDP or GDP growth will be down, so will loose employment.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4562
Normal GDP growth- 6% even when govt does nothing- nor harming nor building.

Under Biddwan Yuraj K GDP Growth:

Suppose to be normal growth: 6
Impact of biddwan's budget: -2
Caused by demoralization of private sector from biddwan: -1
Solved Banking crisis : 2
If mega projects are completed in time: 2
Re construction: .5
Monitory Policy: -1
Wasting of time: -.5

Total= 6-2-1+2+2+.5-1-.5= 6% GDP growth

(Revised growth rate after revising banking crisis and monitory policy and wasting of time)
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4562
This year's GDP growth- 6%

Next year:
Suppose to be normal growth: 6
Impact of biddwan's budget: -2
Caused by demoralization of private sector from biddwan: -1
Semi solved Banking crisis (if it is semi solved): -1
If mega projects are completed in time: 2
Re construction: .5

Total= 6-2-1-1+2+.5= 4.5% GDP growth
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4562
अर्थमन्त्रीले सुनाए ८ प्रतिशत आर्थिक वृद्धिदरका आधा दर्जन आधार

देश लोडसेडिङमुक्त भएपछि औद्योगिक उत्पादन विस्तार हुदै गएको र आगामी वर्ष थप बढ्ने आधारमा यो लक्ष्य निर्धारण गरेको खतिवडाले बताएका छन् ।

पत्रकार सम्मेलनमा अर्थमन्त्री खतिवडाले आगामी वर्ष राष्ट्रिय गौरवका ४५६ मेगावाटको माथिल्लो तामाकोसी र मेलम्ची खानेपानी आयोजना सञ्चालनमा आउने जानकारी दिए । दुई आयोजनाले मूल्य अभिवृद्धि गर्न उनको भनाई छ ।

यस्तै नयाँ ठुला सिमेन्ट र खानी उद्योग सञ्चालनमा आउने भएकाले यी क्षेत्रले आर्थिक गति
विधिमा विस्तार गर्ने खतिवडाको तर्क छ ।

आगामी वर्ष पनि साढे ८ प्रतिशत् सेवा विस्तार हुने उनले जानकारी दिए । यस्तै कृषि क्षेत्रको विस्ता साढे ४ प्रतिशत हुने उनको भनाई छ ।

I dont see so called biddwan Dr.Yuraj K's visible contriboution in the GDP growth or economy. All he is doing is extorting from hardworking. Dont expect contribution from private sector cause of yuraj k. He has negative contribution to our economy.

Without solving liquidity crisis- 8% growth will be hard.

By rising tax, they may gain few billion but economy will loose 10s of billions, may be 100 billion potential addition to GDP. This is called bad economics from bad economist.

Economic is complex. Here if one eats some one else would Sh!t. Son of gothalo should study medicine if he has ability to study. For the person of his background- economics, management are too complex.
« Last edit by The Rising Sun on Wed May 30, 2018 7:04 pm. »
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4562
नेपालीको प्रतिव्यक्ति आय एक लाख रुपैयाँ नाघ्यो

I think Per capita income is around 2.5lakh.

(This means Nepalese can add 15% more in NEPSE).

५.८ प्रतिशतको आर्थिक वृद्धि हासिल हुने सरकारी प्रक्षेपण Thanks to liquidity crisis, NEPSE crisis, interest crisis.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4562
जीडीपीमा पर्यटन क्षेत्रको योगदान २५ प्रतिशत पुर्याउने पयर्टनमन्त्रीको घोषणा :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

25 lakh tourist * 1000$ expenditure per tourist = 2.5 billion dollar.
50 lakh domestic tourist* 25000Rs expenditure per tourist= 1.25 billion dollar.

Total 3.75 billion dollar revenue from Tourism.

25% contribution to GDP never gonna happen.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4562
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4562
More than 40% equivalent of conservative GDP in Cash is outside the system. If we invest 30% and make 25% profit, GDP will grow by 7.5%.

7.5%+6%=13.5%, 10% growth for 2 year.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4562
दमकमा तीन खर्ब ३३ अर्बको लागतमा औद्योगिक पार्क बन्दै, चिनियाँ टोलीद्वारा स्थलगत अवलोकन

(333 billion just for park, at first, i though it was a print mistake)

उनले तीनदेखि ४ महिनाभित्रमा औद्योगिक पार्कको शिलान्यास गराउने तयारी तीव्र पारिएको छ । उनले पार्कको विस्तृत आयोजना प्रतिवेदन (डीपीआर) फास्ट ट्रकमार्फत बनाएर नेपाल र चीनको शीर्ष तहबाट शिलान्यास गराउने गृहकार्य भइरहेको बताए ।

https://www.kantipurdaily.com/news/2017/12/28/20171228165408.html


-In next 5 year, if govt is stable, dont be surprised if China invest (both private, and govt) 25 billion dollar in Nepal.
+ others, Which could more than double (may be triple) Nepal's gdp in 5 year. (Nepal's GDP is so small, tripling wont be a big deal). On going hydro development will complete in coming govt's tenure.

- China want to open billion dollar bank.
- 12 billion in railway project.
- chinese billions in hydro (china may import electricity, and use it for train)
- chinese investment hotels
- chinese investment in industries (market probably china, india, bangladesh)
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4562
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)
GDP based on purchasing power parity in the countries of the world

-GDP- 71B$
-Per capita- 2516$
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4562
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4562
Namaskar Jawalanta7 ji.
Member
Registered: Aug 2015
Posts: 31
Hello Rising Sun!
Namaste!
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4562
पहिलो पटक राष्ट्रिय आर्थिक गणना हुँदै, मम पसलदेखि तारे होटलसम्मका विवरण संकलन गरिने
http://www.bizmandu.com/content/-28807.html


before survey, read my post.

surveying in Nepal especially GDP is very complex and almost impossible, if you think it is not possible, here is the easy way,

GDP= Consumption+Saving-Cash outflow.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4562
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4562
The Government has estimated the economic growth of the current fiscal year to increase by 6.94 per cent.

"The growth rate is the highest in the past 23 years. The economic growth last fiscal year stood at 0.01 per cent due to the earthquake and the border blockade.""
say india blockade- daal moron. (remember this is a country where father sell their daughter for one lakh to red light and patrakar sell country for a bottle of vodka).

It is also estimated that there would be contribution of 29.37 per cent and 70.63 per cent of agriculture and non-agriculture sectors respectively in the Gross Domestic Production during the period.


Per capita income has reached 862 US dollars against 757 USD last year.

he per capita GDP is expected to increase by 6.1 per cent in the current fiscal year as compared to previous fiscal year - now i am confused, what is the difference between gdp growth and economic growth???


http://www.myrepublica.com/news/20845/
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4562
नेपालको आर्थिक वृद्धि ७.५ प्रतिशत पुग्ने विश्व बैंकको
http://merolagani.com/NewsDetail.aspx?newsID=33378


Without the help from Govt or NRB?
What if Nepal govt or NRB were ran by competent individuals?
GDP growth 12%????????
Member
Registered: Feb 2016
Posts: 33
http://www.sharesansar.com/gdp-nepse-index/
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4562
यता, चालु आर्थिक वर्षको कुल गार्हस्थ उत्पादनमा प्राथमिक क्षेत्रले (कृषि, वन, मत्स्य, खानी तथा उत्खनन) ३० प्रतिशत योगदान दिने पूर्वानुमान छ भने दोस्रो क्षेत्रले (निर्माण, उद्योग, विद्युत, ग्यास तथा उद्योग) १४ प्रतिशत योगदान दिने अनुमान छ । साथै, सेवा क्षेत्रले (थोक तथा खुद्रा व्यापार, होटल तथा रेष्टुरेन्ट, शिक्षा, स्वास्थ्य, सार्वजनिक प्रशासन, रियल स्टेट लगायत) ५५.९९ प्रतिशत योगदान दिनेछ । - See more at: http://www.nepalipaisa.com/NewsDetail.aspx///id/16481#sthash.YC2Cmr04.dpuf


Great, agriculture sector contribution fallen below 30% and service sector above 55%.


Hope to see agri sector below 5% and service sector above 75%
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4562
कुल गार्हस्थ्य उत्पादनमा रियल स्टेटको योगदान ६० अर्ब ३९ करोड, निर्माण क्षेत्रको ४५ अर्ब ६७ करोड - See more at: http://www.bikashnews.com/2017/04/27/58179.html#sthash.fLPthqpX.dpuf
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4562
नेपाली अर्थतन्त्रकाे अाकार २६ खर्ब रूपैयाँ, प्रतिव्यक्ति नेपालीको आए ११ हजारले वृद्धि - See more at: http://www.bikashnews.com/2017/04/26/58101.html#sthash.DupLwy6n.dpuf

त्यसरी नै एक नेपालीको प्रतिव्यक्ति आय (जीएनआई)९१ हजार चार सय ८८ रुपैयाँ पुग्ने अनुमान विभागको छ । गत वर्षको तुलनामा यो झण्डै ११ हजारले बढी हो । गएको वर्ष यस्तो आय ८० हजार पाँच सय २५ रुपैयाँ रहेको थियो । प्रतिव्यक्ति आय अमेरिकी डलरमा भने आठ सय ६२ डलर पुगेको छ भने गएको वर्ष अमेरिकी डलरमा प्रतिव्यक्ति आय सात सय ६७ थियो ।


--------------
part of what i said in this topic:
--- IMPORT: Nepal imports around 700arab worth of goods, but real figure could be 1000arab. And those goods could be sold at 3000arab (3times)(including huge custom duty). So GDP contribution from Import be (3000-700="""""2300 arab"""")
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4562
कुल गार्हस्थ उत्पादन वृद्धिदर ६.९४ प्रतिशत पुग्ने

http://bit.ly/2petpbX

- GDP going way up, NEPSE confused and moving sideways.
where are those who used to say, NEPSE is not following reality (GDP) when I used to say, NEPSE is mainly follow future expectation rather than present that is why PE ratio varies so much.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4562
कर्जा नियन्त्रणले सवारी साधनको व्यापार २० प्रतिशतले घट्न सक्ने, अर्थतन्त्र संकूचनतिर जाँदै - See more at: http://www.bikashnews.com/2017/02/10/50959.html#sthash.CBGBvtJZ.dpuf


-Only car loan's interest should be highest, not other vehicle loan. Fixing limit is also ok with me, from economic, financial point of view.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 4562
व्याजदर अन्तर घटाउने सरकारको रणनीति, व्याजदर निक्षेपमा ६/७ प्रतिशत र कर्जामा १०/११ प्रतिशत राख्ने लक्ष्य - See more at: http://www.bikashnews.com/2017/02/03/50320.html#sthash.ROhQy7QE.dpuf


-मन्त्रिपरिषद्को बैठले पारित गरेर अर्थमन्त्रालयले सार्वजनिक गरेको वित्तीय क्षेत्रसम्बन्धी रणनीतिले कुल गार्हस्थ्य उत्पादन (जीडीपी)मा वित्तीय क्षेत्रको योगदान ४.१ प्रतिशतबाट ८ प्रतिशत पुर्याउने लक्ष्य लिएको छ ।
As per govt data, gdp is 2500arab, bfis interest income is 200arab. So gdp contribution from bfis is 8%. Looks like Govt only included BFIs profit, not interest given to depositor.

Now Govt wants to increase contribution to 8% which is double. For that, CD ratio needs to be dropped to 8-10% and Govt has to deposit their revenue in the BFIs.
Govt could divide revenue into 4 category- 25% in saving ac, 25% each in 1/2/3 mth fixed account.

Which would increase economic activity and increase business of BFIs and thus increase revenue and creates good paying job.


-यसका लागि जीडीपी आकारको ८९.७ प्रतिशतमा रहेको निक्षेपलाई शतप्रतिशत तथा ७३.६ प्रतिशतमा रहेको कर्जाको आकारलाई ८० प्रतिशतमा पुर्याउने लक्ष्य तोकिएको छ ।
For this CD ratio needs to be down to 8-10%, Hundi cartel should be punished- govt should punish hundi with 25yr jail and 10000 times fine.
Govt needs to punish those who dont pay tax with 200% fine.
And give time and fine to declare their property.
Within 1year- pay 15% tax in declared property.
1-2yr- pay 20%
2-3yr-pay 25% tax
then after that 200% fine for undeclared wealth. Which would bring money into system and banking channel.

-

Post Reply

Page: « < 1 2 3 4 >

Sharesansar Forum Powered By Miracle Hub