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10000 BY 2083/2026

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Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7425
I used to think, till a year ago, NEPSE will hit 10000 in early next bull......... Now I think, we may see 10000 in this bull.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7425
Its prediction not vision.


BFIs have hardly increased. It needs to increase at least 3 times in a year, (it may at least double with in baisak) . Which would increase at least give 2000 points support to NEPSE which will take NEPSE to 4000+ then there will be support from other sector.




NABIL is above 1500 if we consider adjusted price, and it will increase too. MNBBL's eps will be similar so NABIL with higher growth than NABIL by 4 qtr so we can see price around NABIL. ......
Member
Registered: Jun 2017
Posts: 844
R u sure...?

:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7425
NEPSE Prediction for 2021 end-
NEPSE saw 2087 in 2020.

By the end of 2021 NEPSE will be between 3800 to 5000.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7425
If the story is true, that guy is a gambler, neither investor nor trader. That guy must have put all the money in hydro.

If he is over confident in future cause of his first success ........................









I live in ideal residential area. For last few years, criminals and dalals have bought land in my area with black money and have erected very tall houses to lease for business but most of the rooms are vacant and high turnover of tenants and still those idiots with tons of black money dont learn lesson and keep on buying and erecting high rise buildings.

Price of land should crash at least 25% and stay down for 10 year for the sake of the economy. And share market :mrgreen:


LEARN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RESIDENTIAL AND BUSINESS AREA IDIOTS. Dont destroy residential area. where is no more than 3 floor in residential area rule floated by, I guess NC/UML govt.
Member
Registered: Jun 2017
Posts: 844
सेयर बजारमा युवा क्रेज, महिनाकै रु. ५ लाखसम्म कमाइ

https://www.bizshala.com/story/%E0%A4%B8%E0%A5%87%E0%A4%AF%E0%A4%B0-142

one of the guy told that he entered in sharemarket with 50 lakhs 3 yrs ago and has already multiplied by many folds re. He is earning 5 lakh/months re.

Is he a member of Faking.com?

:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 2288
Big bubble formed in real-state sector over past decade and more is about to blast. You can see lot of premium property on sale.

कोभिडले रियल इस्टेट कारोबारमा मन्दी गहिरिए बिक्री नहुने र बैंक कर्जा तिर्न मुस्किन पर्नसक्ने अनुमानमा उनीहरु आत्तिए
प्रोपर्टीमा लगानी गरेकाहरु यतिबेला भने हतास देखिन थालेका छन्

If investment from real state sector is diverted to capital market, then BIG BULL cant be denied. But the condition of CORONA must not deteriorate further.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7425
I dont think, Oli will break the party, even if be breaks, I dont think more than 25% of his btches will go along with him.

If madhav nepal or prachanda becomes PM, surendra panday will likely become finance minister.



I dont see problem for the economy or share market.






I am expecting around 6 times in 4 year. 8)

It needs to be doubled just to get to break even. (50% more now).
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 2288
अध्यक्ष पुष्पकमल दाहाल प्रचण्ड -"प्रधानमन्त्री केपी ओलीले अलग पार्टी बनाउने प्रस्ताव गरेको बताए"
Difficult to say at the moment whether Mr.Bishnu Poudel will stick in the chair of FM for 2 years OR ..........?
Anyway, OPTIMISM motivate us to struggle and go further down the lane.
Member
Registered: Jun 2017
Posts: 844
Be smart and have thinking like The Rising Sun. Dont run after few Rs profit...think of doubling/trebling your capital.

:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7425
We may see "NEPSE close to 7000" during Bishnu Paudel's tenure of 2 plus year as finance minister, if he is able to complete his remaining time.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7425
Nepal's share market will cross well above 10000 in 2020 and around 20000 at the end of the decade.





NEPSE crashed from 1100 to 300 when brain dead, dangerous people was FM (bhatterai) and Governor (yuraj K) and dumb PM who knew what was going on in the economy(prachanda). ((((I wander, what kind of post was chirinjivi Nepal was in when NEPSE crashed from 1100 to 300???? NEPSE boss?????


History has repeated. Today, NEPSE has crashed from 1900 to 1100 when dangerous people are in FM (same yuraj k) and another dangerous person (chirinjivi Nepal) as Governor and dumb in PM (KP Oli).

Both, yuraj k and chirinjigy nepal had drafted policy just to crash share market. Both will be gone in the first half of year 2020.

Some days ago, KP Oli was saying something about ship as if there is ship sailing in Nepal. How dumb he is and how easily his advisers been fooling him.



Yuraj k wanted to destroy share market for 18 month and he was successful. For last few month, he is trying to increase and he has no idea how to do it. He was behind crash to 300 and again in 1100.

He wanted to crash share market both time, and he did. And now he wants to increase it but could not.


Could yuraj k just be alchina?????? kun site ma janme ko alchina bahun!


And at his time, Nepal's economy is facing crisis worst than even during maoist terror or the great earthquake or the blockade. If he is not alchina then what???? And the economy is crashing at the time, when it is the easiest time ever in the history of any govt in Nepal to work for the economy.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7425
For future, :lol:

How to make decision while investing?

In civilized world, they estimate 10 yr return and identify right PR ratio for that stock.

In Nepal, we should at least estimate 5 year return.

We can compare return in stock with interest rate only in developed countries, even that country, economy push for inflation and increase economy which reflect in company earning too.

In developed countries, some industry cant grow that is why their PE ratio is very low and which has growth prospect has high PE ratio.

In stock, we want return from capital gain, not dividend. In outside Nepal, growing company usually dont give any dividend, they re invest it in same or other business and still their rate is huge.

Let's talk about Nepal:
In Nepal, max interest rate now is 9.25%. So stock need to give at least 12% return.

Let's calculate 5 year return: If return on interest rate for five year is 9.25%/year, in 5th year, Return should be 155%.


Let's calculate return for stock which average growth is 15% for 5 year:
- if dividend is 100 and if there is no growth then its price should be (if we want 12% return)= 833 Rs.
- if growth is 15% for 5 year, its 5th year dividend will be 200. So price should be 1700 in 5th year.
So how much are you willing to pay today, 1200-1400??? If you pay 1400, its PE ratio would be 14.

PE ratio of company which has zero growth be 8.3.
PE ratio of company which has 15% growth be 14
PE ratio of company which has 25% growth be ?????
PE ratio of company which has 35% growth be ????

So in stock, we expect return from capital gain, not dividend. In the world, those companies which has not given any dividend for decades but have high growth is priced the most.

And we also have to assume, in future, when Nepal is more developed, interest on FD will diminish significantly. So it will increase PE ratio too.

So better start investing for long term.

If interest rate falls to 6% then price should increase 30%. So we have to consider future interest rate while calculating PE ratio too.

If they want to build Nepal, Interest rate should be around 8% on loan, so if loan's rate is 8%, how much rate will be on FD? 4%????


Main return from stock is capital gain, not dividend. But Capital gain is determined by present and future income of the company as well as FD rate.

It was wrong of people to consider current FD rate, which is not sustainable, if this rate go on for another 4/5 year, BFis will collapse due to NPL. But our CEO who take crore in salary go around telling Interest rate wont fall for 4/5 year. They cant even see that if interest rate remain this high for another few year, BFIs will collapse.



Above is my rough calculation.


And since, there is some risk that is why you have to diversify your investment. And you expect slightly higher return on stock than in FD.

Also In FD we put cash. Value of cash always diminish which means there is inflation.

And in stock, when there is inflation, company will make more profit so value of your stock will increase with will cross inflation.
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7425
Dont be surprised if there is 10/25 year bull starts. Which means NEPSE will pass well above one lakh in 25yr.

With Investment from outside, our liquidity crisis will be soon over. And Since return from Share investment wont be huge like their investment in NCell, so those foreigner wont be taking back huge return.

There average return will be just above what we pay for foreign loan. Only early investor will make big return.

Investment from all around the world will stabilize market as well as end liquidity crisis.



I would like to thank, those in hunger strike and unintended martyrs.

Current policy, about to be implemented, would not have happened without their involvement.


Unintended martyrs: In Nepal, when rapist who try to rape falls and dies, is granted martyr title.

similarly, so called big daddy, who sold their share to crash NEPSE to 1000 are the reason NEPSE crashed to 1100, and had not crashed 1100 they would not have passed the policy.

So big daddy dumped their shares to rape small and medium investor and got trapped themselves into a bear trap, now bear is about to eat them alive. Which makes them unintended martyrs.

Lets give them one minute silence.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2089
I Guess this the Ranked No 1 Thread in terms of views in this SS Forum !! :roll: :roll:
Member
Registered: Jun 2017
Posts: 844
Dividend declaration era begins.

Not a good start by fmdbl with 12% cash though.
:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2089
To Some Extent i agree to point with regards to Micro Management !! if this continues then Venezuela like scenario is quite Possible !!

Government is unable to tackle the economic crisis and working on scenarios where it wants limited number of players but instead of limited players government should emphasis of competitive players.

Central Banks putting limitation on transaction Limits, Putting limitation of OD limit,
Government imposing Higher Tax slab, Still unable to Provide Soft Loan to Earth quake victims, unable to create employment.

I Personally feel we don't require rail network at all if we do Nepal Debt will sky rocket like anything. There could be huge devaluation of our currency !! If devaluation happens you know what Next as we can see in Zimbabwe & Venezuela......................................
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7425
Dubosi7- Good thing about biddwan is, he is building base for future economic prosperity- bringing cash from outside, giving chinese bank to open 100 billion bank.

So there will be plenty of capital needed.

Soon game changing projects and work will be completed soon- melamchi, tamakoshi, regional int airports, bheri babai project, capital from outside, 100 billion chinese bank.

Biddwan Yuraj K's fiscal and monitory policy will destroy mainstream economy- I have no doubt, I am still studying what will be govt GDP no- which is not real economic indicator. Cause of his policy- many job will be lost and many people will suffer.

But since, game changing projects are about to complete, as soon as biddwan yuraj K is fired, as soon as next govt or finance minister reverse 90% fiscal and monitory policy of biddwan, Nepal's GDP will head straight UP and NEPSE will sky rocket too.

Longer biddwan stays, Nepalese will suffer. If he is out by 2020, 10000 is still possible within 2026.

NEPSE is too undervalued, company with face value of around 150 cant be sold at 101. This is too undervalued market. Even with biddwan as FM, NEPSE is easily suppose to stay at 2500.

MY views.


Deepak ji, Nepal has become like Venezuela cause of NEPSE crash. Not the other way round. Just like in Venezuela, Nepalse lost more than 700 arab cause of criminals and dumb. And many social media know all is trying to make Nepal- Venezuela like Welfare state.


When Mao tried to micro manage his country, many died cause they had nothing during famine. Mao was against storing wealth/rice.

Same is happening today, commie/biddwan yuraj K is trying to micro manage our life and Nepalese are loosing their wealth/cash- Mao's times' rice.

Biddwan is trying to control everything including capital. He thinks he is master and Nepalese are peasants. He wants to decide who gets loan and who dont.

Economy does not work like that. Know body know exactly how economy works, that is why you should not try to control it like biddwan is doing. In economy, capital flows like water, where ever there is gap, cash will fill it. If it is being decided by idiot, that idiot go bankrupt. And when idiot like biddwan yuraj K and 8 class try to control it, whole economy goes into bankruptcy.
Member
Registered: Oct 2017
Posts: 2089
if 10000 by 2026 happens then this will happen :--

Kindly go through the video !!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mL8d91vdR9g
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 2288
rising sun ji,
10000 by 2083/2026, if NEPSE/SEBON/FM/PM attitude remains the same it will be just your dream.
where is issue based discussion and act by FM? Kan ma tel halera suteko jasto chha.
what is the progress in these issues -Online, broker licence to bank, NRN investment policy.
8% growth :lol: :lol: :lol:
Member
Registered: Mar 2018
Posts: 811
COMPANIES ISSUE IPO (Referring to Hydros, Hotels, Cement)
1 - They collect billions
2 - They spend it on Turbines (Hydros), Decors/Furnishings/Rebars (Hotels), Clinkers (Cement) - ALL THIS MONEY GO SUBSTANTIALLY OUTSIDE THE COUNTRY
3 - Eventually Hydro Generate electricity (No Import From India) generate and sustain money in Nepal
4 - Eventually Hotels endures tourists and all those dollars remains in Nepal
5 - Eventually Cement Industries avoid indian imports of cement and as they are aiming to export it will create and sustain money in nepal

GOLDEN ERA BEGINNING
1 - When MAJOR hydros start to operate commercially and start to pay the loans
2 - When tourism flourish
3 - When cement start to export
4 - When Agriculture revolution comes

NEPSE
1 - Liquidity crisis is over in nepal if current stance of SAME BALANCESHEET & STABLE GOVT EXPENDITURE is persistently implemented
2 - NEPSE WILL SURGE as companies growth is more than Interest rate growth

......Baki Ishwor Ko Leela...
Member
Registered: Oct 2013
Posts: 7425
simrik ji, investment from Nepalese in Share market joins banking system. It wont create liquidity crisis.

Biddwan Yuraj K is dumb and he fooled commie and 8 class Oli into believing that investing in Shares means burring capital- which could have been used in raising cow. Whose milk is being spilled on the road cause of over production due to compulsorily 10% lending by BFIs into agriculture sector which policy was introduced by another Phd in NRB and supported by Biddwan.

When there is IPO, 10/25 thousand Nepalese keep in their house also join banking system after applying for IPO by them.

Which means, IPOs create liquidity.

IPOs create wealth for common Nepalese and create liquidity for the country and capital for business. Otherwise that money is more likely to go to India while consuming Khaini.


Economics is complicated that is why self claimed economic expert and social media expert and patrakar misunderstood into thinking that Share market helps liquidity crisis. Share market is not a dumpster fire where putting cash will turn it into ashes.
Member
Registered: Dec 2016
Posts: 173
Can you all comment on the effect of all these new stocks coming to market from privately held companies? Won't the liquidity issue be exacerbated with all these new issues?
Member
Registered: Aug 2015
Posts: 77
शेयर बजार मा यमराज आतंक कायम रहे सम्म प्रगति हुने लक्षण देखिएन ....
Member
Registered: Jun 2017
Posts: 844
even if interest rate decreases, nothing will happen untill rice killers like Khatiwada is on powers who thinks that expanding and increasing tax is the one and only resposibility of the government. Everything else go to vain.

:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

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