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The Rising Sunji, how is NLG insurance when I went through it's report I found it good but it's price is quite low as compared to SICL. Will it give right share this year or not? Plz provide some information about this scrip.

Dear Rising sir!
Why people pay high to buy right or to obtain bonus share?

As per my 7 months study and experiment of share market; happening as follows:
- First time I did not study but asked one of the nrb officer and he suggested me to buy everest bank and chcl share in secondary market , now I realised both are good .

- I ran behind nccb though he did not wanted me to buy nccb but I bought to get 38% bonus .

- As price was adjusted around 446 after bonus but it was never increased.

- same happen to nbb as well
- but nabil,skbbl ,mnbbl resulted differently; their price rose immediately the price adjustment.
-most of microfinance price increased after adjustment.
- we can see the fall of price in other commercial bank such as hbl ajdusted price around 1000 but now struggling to cross 950,same story in nibl and nica which I sold @999.
-why to buy before book close to get bonus or right with high price still it takes 3/4 months to get bonus or right but we can buy even cheaper the same stock where no need to wait for 3/4 months.

I just want to enlight that query in this way:

let's take NICA as sample
# The closing price was Rs 997 Before adjustment.
#The closing price was Rs 700 After adjustment.
# Suppose I bought 100 kitta@997 before adjustment for which I paid Rs 1,00,617/26 and I get 39 kitta as bonus and I have 139 kitta .If I want to sell all my 139 kitta it is not possible bcz it takes 3/4 months for bonus share listing,Though the price if I could sell will be Rs 95,031 (69359/50 for 100 kitta plus 25672 for bonus 39 kitta). If the closing price of today was same as ajdjusted price ie Rs. 717 the selling price would be 97339.

# But if I bought 139 kitta@ 700 just to pay 98198 ,even if price was 717 then just 100579 to pay.

Why this ???? Could you mind elaborating!
waiting!

Good evening Rising sir!
💌💌💌I heard the deal with redbl is not good for nbb ie swap ratio is 100:73.
💌💌💌 my another stock nccb is already in merge process with 4 dev bank.Now again its going to merge with kumari bank ,so huge transaction of kbl today.I hope it will help to rise business of the bank so Im happy with nccb where I have 428 kitta.
💌💌💌 Im just getting more and more information on insurence stock.Today these stock are slightly corrected. sil announced just 25% bonus , I wish to buy it if it go further correction around 900.
💌💌💌kmcdb is sharply downward trending.Are days gone for micro finance?

Good evening Pulkit Ji.

Mid range with low capital bank like NBB has to buy or merge with other to raise around 2 billion. It was expected.

It must be redbl- reliable dev and sindhu. Both are average, so fine with me. hope NBB gets extra around 1.20

Dont know about CEO.

And about NB group, most of the share of NB group has already been bought by bangladeshi promoter. Now NB only has tiny or none.

In mid term, business with bangladesh will increase so NBB may get a lot of L/C demand.

There was a good transaction today.

Let's see.

Dear Rising sir!
Good afternoon!
Infact I don't know the inside information about nbb
but I heard;
💌💌💌 nbb is going to be merge with rdbl and sindhu
💌💌💌 CEO is escaping making it worse who has PR in foreign country.
💌💌💌 a bad group nb group.

Hello Pulkit Ji.

At this time, I really cant say about banks. Hope it increases a lot after blockade is lifted.

About NBB, depends upon the news. I too have it. I too would like to hear your inside info. Thanks

Dear Rising sir!
Good Morning!
Whats up!
You are thanked so heartily that I can not express in words!
☕☕☕Stocks price is affected due to management as I heard.
☕☕☕Whoever get inside information they are benifited in short term sale/buy.
☕☕☕I want to go with one of my stock ie NBB
☕☕☕ As I purchased its
100 kitta@ 700 =Rs 70645/50 and
250 kitta @671=169289/91 and
the total sum I spent in nbb is Rs.239935/41
☕☕☕ Im hearing bad news about nbb so I want to sell it .
☕☕☕ The last closing price was Rs 440 but my heart and mind says to sell it atleast @435.
☕☕☕ If I could sell@435 for 350 kitta a sum of Rs.150812
(Rs.43058 frm 100 kitta where net loss is Rs 27,587 and Rs 107754 frm 250 kitta where net loss isRs. 61535) will be in my hand😑😒😑😒
☕☕☕ I will miss my money Rs 89000.
☕☕☕ But the bonus share 88 kitta will be there which will cost Rs 1012
☕☕☕ I will forget 88 kitta for the time till it will provide me return.
☕☕☕ I want to reinvest in dev bank or insurence that from nbb 1.5 lakhs,nica 1.53 and refunded money from hydroelectricity .75 lakhs around.
☕☕☕ For this Im really confused!
☕☕☕Plz suggest me

Pulkit Ji,

-I think insurance companies with low EPS are likely to merge with each other. Since, money is not the only issue. Future growth is also needed to issue right share. both life as well as general.

-people may not want to buy policy from insurance company with low capital, so keeping capital in competitive range is the must. big capital also means ability to handle future shocks but need to maintain good EPS too, so eps is not good enough, go for merger.

-If Insurance capital increment is true then my money is on- nlicl, pliicl, alicl, nlg, sil, sic, sicl etc

-emergency fund: not really. if you sell vehicle policy then even if your emergency fund is high wont have to pay much during earthquake unless earthquake damages the vehicle. and during normal time, you collect earthquake insurance money, but you dont have to pay till earthquake damage is there for whole one year.

But, company/govt does not separate vehicle or earthquake or any other emergency fund. all is kept in the same basket. and has to pay from same fund if regular reserve is not enough.

so bigger emergency does not usually mean bigger risk. big fund usually keeps company safe.

- right share is bad for investors, cause right share would increase capital so EPS would decrease so the company that does not have good growth rate should not offer right share. And we should not go after right share of bad company with low growth rate.

Banks:
-For short term investors, should sell the share before transaction is halted for merger.

-getting extra share during merger depend upon swap deal. good for us if we get extra. NRB must have policy regarding how much extra a company can get during swapping depending upon how much reserve merger will bring in the company.

- it depends, if whole nepase is up during the halted time, or if balance sheet is better etc or could go other way round.

-actually, usually, keeping share of of bad company is good during merger. Smaller company usually gets better deal. It is a sure win. I think only bank of asia got a bad deal unless they had something hidden.

And it depends, if there is some share which is highly likely to give you much bigger profit in short time than the share you already have. then sell your share and buy the share that will go really high in short time.



-

Thank you very much Rising sir for clarification!
Few queries more:

🌹🌹Regarding Insurence 🌹🌹

🎁Is merge possible between life &life insu stock and non & non?
🎁Does it effect in insu health of high right share issue ie 1:1 to 1:1.5 ??even more.
🎁 Where to invest the increased capital of insurence stock?
🎁 Is not higher the emergency fund higher the claim paid?
🎁If right share does not have side effect to the growth of insu ,then is not it the most safe stock to invest?

🌹🌹Merger of bank🌹🌹
🎁Merger blocks the money in stock almost half of a year
🎁Could bigger bank get premium share even in poor swap deal with smal bank? As I heard Prabhu:grand::121:65 around.Dont it mean 100 of prabu share get 21 as premium ?
🎁Could the price break the circuit after the hault of banks for 4/5 months?
🎁 Could it be better to sell the stocks which is in loss and likely to go merge and reinvest in the sector of hot cake??
Waiting your smart answers??

I think after merger, acquisition there will be less banks and even very few development banks. I dont think any sane individuals will have guts to invest 8 billion, 2.5 billion for dev bank and start new bank. There wont be enough market for start up.

So if someone has a dream of becoming a banker or even insurance company, he/she has to buy promoter share, public share. So cause of this too price will increase of public as well as promoter share in future.

And since nepal is developing rapidly (growth rate of banks, especially dev banks), and since there will be lesser banks, dev banks. there will have lesser competition so they will make a lot of money.

SO my strategy has always been buy as much share of good company and hold it. I expect present one crore will be come around 15 crore in 10 year.


Happy investing all.

Ps- I think, after capital is reached, there wont be enough dev. banks in nepal which is not good for nepal's economy. May be regional dev banks will become national.

Good Evening Pulkit Ji.

If Insurance capital increment is true then my money is on- nlicl, pliicl, alicl, nlg, sil, sic, sicl etc. I was expecting something like 2B for general and 2.5 for life.

Banks merger, NCC looks bad but let's see swap ratio.
NBB and SBL is fine. Business universal looks like a big winner to me.
Small company will benefit with in short time while bigger company take sometime to get benefit.

Bigger company will be able to earn extra from same staff from smaller company by expanding branch, and cost will be lower from golden handshake with CEO, and other managers later. And can also make money by selling head office of smaller company.

During merger, either you buy your competition or expansion into new market in mind.

Merger with bad company is bad.

But like, if grand bank has good collateral then prabhu could become beneficiary by able to get grand at cheap rate.

Just like in share market, company in trouble is always cheap so it has good future and you saw it then can make huge profit by keeping them for midterm. Problem was, grand bank's price was never low enough. Wonder who was behind keeping grand bank's price that high.

I think most of the banks with less than 4 bill has to buy or merge with one or more.

Knowing the Quality of collateral is very important during merger.

Rising sir !
Good evening!
How are yoy sir?
Where are you today? Busy?
I read rumour in
http://nepalsharemarket.com/jambforum/Default.aspx?postid=133307#133307

about cabinet meeting on capital hike of life insu stock 3 arba and non life 1.5 arba.

Antother
there another rumour on nbb merge !?
My two stocks are already in merge process.
This time again fed up with rumour of poor merge deal of nbb with a dev bank?
Could you mind putting down your understanding the prospect and drawbacks of merger ??????
I request to go keeping mind nccb,sbl and nbb merge !
With jet response!

"#यस पटक १०
#अर्को पटक कम्तीमा पनि २५ प्रतिशत बोनस शेयर बितरण गर्ने हाम्रो पाइपलाइन बनेको छ । यसबाट झण्डै ७ करोड पुगेको पूँजीलाई १० करोड पुर्याउन
#हकप्रद शेयर जारी गर्ने योजना छ ।
२ वर्ष पछि हामी राष्ट्र बैंकले तोके अनुसारको पूँजी भएको लघुवित्त कम्पनीका रुपमा स्थापित हुन्छौं" copy and paste!😍😌😊

Pulkit Ji.

Current price for general insurance is very new for general insurance so move cautiously.

And thanks you for the info about kalika. I just checked it: http://www.merolagani.com/NewsDetail.aspx?newsID=24312. 10% this year and In two year they are planning to double their capital. So could make around 70% profit with in 18 month.

Again thanks Rising sir!

I say honestly I purchased mnbbl after I read your comments in this forum.

Again I went Kalika after you.

But I do not have high expectation from it coz in an interview published in www.merolagani.com its 10% bonus just!
Though it is fundamentally very good.

I am checking your stocks in insurence field
and
possibly
I will prefer
low p/e,low paid up,low price and low claim
but high eps,high reserve,high emergency fund and high claim paid in the current market of both life and non life stock.
Thanks again for the dearly response !

Pulkit ji, Thanks.

Nepal is very small, so expert in smaller field is not possible, may be in next 5/10 yr. But I think, in india too they may use software so why cant nepal buy software??? Or may be most of the life insurance are promoted by indian company so may be that could be the real reason.

What I say or think may or may not come true, but I am never going to lie or manipulate. But I always try to cash in when big players manipulate. sell when price is over valued and buy, if I still have cash, when price is down. It costs really high to manipulate, I heard many big players have stock their money in Chilime, everest etc.

Thanks to MARKET DEPTH, cost of manipulating will be even higher now.

Now, at this time, I really cant say anything about short term investment 3/4 month. I think right share of insurance and lifting of blockade could give opportunity to short term investors.

Since blockade could be lifted soon, So may not be right time to sell. China has not passed custom for last 3/4 days according to myrepublica, hope there is no some misunderstanding. Foreign ministry said, PM would visit india first, hope china is not angry cause of that stupid statement Or cause of bijaya gachadar not passing rauwa road up gradation file.

Hope kalika announce huge bonus and right soon so we can make good profit.

Good Luck

Dear Rising sir!
You are heartly thanked!

You are really well learnt,I mean you expertise in stock market.

You have made me clear on my queries!

Still , I think share market mostly favours expert
but
luck plays vital role in such volatile market where mostly ill people manipulate small companies.

Some queries arose in my mind again😉😀😁😂.

😇😒India calculates the data of life insurance😒😒??

I doubt wheather Nepal is a country on not!!!!

As micro finance so life insurence stocks are easily manipulated by big investor.
You are big investor if I put karorpati in this category 😀😀😀 But you are not manipulator !

Im lured in some life insu n non life insu stock
but
my big money is locked in
ncc 2 lakhs,
nbb 2.4 lakhs and
1.54 lakhs in sbl out of
total 15.55 lakhs invetment.

Within 7 days 1.53 lakhs
from nica sold will be at my hand as well as
75 thausands from ipo hydro electricity
and
a sum of 2.28 lakhs money will be ready for investment in stock.
Still confusion where to invest?
To add mnbbl?
Im closely watching the price movement of slbbl as well.

But I want to debut insurence stock.
but where ?? life insu or gemeral insu??
But has to study well!

Thank you very much rising sir!

Pulkit ji, Life insurance company sends their data to india for calculation. Till then, we cant know actual profit, eps of life insurance. We wont know the profit of life insurance from provisional report. buy you can follow their insurance fund for rough calculation. So no real PE too.

General Insurance, some's report is slightly less and some's negative- could be cause of how much they have cleared their claims till date, how much amount they have re insured with foreign reinsurer and how much they had sold earthquake/fire insurance before the quake and how much they received the claim.

We should not compare companies from different insurance. Compare banks between banks. dev banks between dev banks. and we cant even compare between life and general insurance.

earth quake is very damaging to general insurance as well as brings great opportunity in future.

blockades effect more to banks than development banks and other sector in short term and long term. In my view, to effect much to other sector by blockade, it takes longer blockade cause it takes more months before majorities' income is affected and then only effect other sector.

banks has more lending to industries far more than dev banks where as development bank lends to individual, agri culture, small service industry etc so banks are affected soon than other industries like dev bank, insurance and hydro.

So we cant compare companies from different sector. And hydro and life insurance are the safest so PE is high. General insurance has to send more than half of earning to reserves plus risky sector so PE is low. And again hydro has invested in many other projects so cause of future earning possibility PE is high(bonus/right has taken capital high)

Risky sector PE low, less risky PE high.
Future prospect bright sector/industry PE high, less future prospect sector PE low.

This time I wish you could pour your genuine words on insurence stocks.

Im realling searching actual data, infos on insurence stocks.

Lots of questions revolving in my mind that why the fundamental foundation is so different of insurence stock than either of banks or electricity or others??

Why eps,p/e etc are not working in life insurence sector ??

Among life insu stock why p/e is so different???
licn pe 1000 plus
plic pe is around 70 ?????

www.merolagani.com provided few data on life stock where there is kept data of emergency fund as well.

I went though your previous comments that more the 2/3 amount is reinsured in foreign insu coy but why the Q1 report of some insu coy has sharply decreased???
Still p/e of general insurence is quite less ie 16 to around 90???

Are these life n non life stock could be compared with commercial vs dev. banks??
Suggest me plz!!

Thanks Pulkit Ji.
At this time, we are more affected by external factor than internal so not much to talk about. My be when second quarter is near. Then may be.

Dear Rising sir! I went through your comments! Great!

Now Im feeling you are not that much active as you were!

I think #IndiaBlockadesNepal will reduce profit from 5-15% on first quarter report. But price has already fell more than 30% of banks. But Banks may do good at 4 quarter if blocked is open within a month.


आर्थिक पुनरुद्धार कोष स्थापनाको महासङ्घद्वारा स्वागत, एक खर्ब बराबरको आर्थिक पुनरुद्धार कोष - See more at: http://www.bizmandu.com/content/-14861.html#.Vo0wgrZ95Bw

गभर्नर भन्छन्, 'सरकारसँग २ प्रतिशत ब्याजमा ऋण लिएर अर्को बैंकमा ब्याज खाउँला भन्नेहरु रिसाए' - See more at: http://www.bizmandu.com/content/-14857.html#.Vo0wibZ95Bw

Hope above move from govt. NRB would help Banks from maintaining first quarter report.

निक्षेप तथा कर्जा सुरक्षण कोष विधेयक संसदबाट पारित

Does this mean even loan is insured and loan/BFIs will be watched by one more organization so that it will be hard to commit crime by promoters? If so, great news.

http://www.aarthiknews.com/

Any guess regarding coming quarter report of Banks?

Around 5% less than first quarter would be great. Up to -15% is fine.

I think market price of banks have already decreased to adjust 25% less EPS than first quarter.
I wont be surprised if some banks show higher profit than first quarter.

I think most of the development banks would show higher than first quarter report.

What ever happens, if blockade is fully open, I think 4 quarter will be far better than first quarter.

Let's all hope for better.

Are we back into business??????????????????????????????????????