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How to make decision while investing?

In civilized world, they estimate 10 yr return and identify right PR ratio for that stock.

In Nepal, we should at least estimate 5 year return.

We can compare return in stock with interest rate only in developed countries, even that country, economy push for inflation and increase economy which reflect in company earning too.

In developed countries, some industry cant grow that is why their PE ratio is very low and which has growth prospect has high PE ratio.

In stock, we want return from capital gain, not dividend. In outside Nepal, growing company usually dont give any dividend, they re invest it in same or other business and still their rate is huge.

Let's talk about Nepal:
In Nepal, max interest rate now is 9.25%. So stock need to give at least 12% return.

Let's calculate 5 year return: If return on interest rate for five year is 9.25%/year, in 5th year, Return should be 155%.


Let's calculate return for stock which average growth is 15% for 5 year:
- if dividend is 100 and if there is no growth then its price should be (if we want 12% return)= 833 Rs.
- if growth is 15% for 5 year, its 5th year dividend will be 200. So price should be 1700 in 5th year.
So how much are you willing to pay today, 1200-1400??? If you pay 1400, its PE ratio would be 14.

PE ratio of company which has zero growth be 8.3.
PE ratio of company which has 15% growth be 14
PE ratio of company which has 25% growth be ?????
PE ratio of company which has 35% growth be ????

So in stock, we expect return from capital gain, not dividend. In the world, those companies which has not given any dividend for decades but have high growth is priced the most.

And we also have to assume, in future, when Nepal is more developed, interest on FD will diminish significantly. So it will increase PE ratio too.

So better start investing for long term.

If interest rate falls to 6% then price should increase 30%. So we have to consider future interest rate while calculating PE ratio too.

If they want to build Nepal, Interest rate should be around 8% on loan, so if loan's rate is 8%, how much rate will be on FD? 4%????


Main return from stock is capital gain, not dividend. But Capital gain is determined by present and future income of the company as well as FD rate.

It was wrong of people to consider current FD rate, which is not sustainable, if this rate go on for another 4/5 year, BFis will collapse due to NPL. But our CEO who take crore in salary go around telling Interest rate wont fall for 4/5 year. They cant even see that if interest rate remain this high for another few year, BFIs will collapse.



Above is my rough calculation.


And since, there is some risk that is why you have to diversify your investment. And you expect slightly higher return on stock than in FD.

Also In FD we put cash. Value of cash always diminish which means there is inflation.

And in stock, when there is inflation, company will make more profit so value of your stock will increase with will cross inflation.

CG planning to enter Indian Securities Market by the year 2020; is it going to do the same in Nepal?

- Nepali lai- unproductive/juwa ma fasaunu hundia na bhane ra Chaudary le Indian ma share issue garne re.

Its amazing, countries like US, UK, Hongkong welcomes foreign company to list their share in their market while, savages commie socialist in Nepal discourage companies/investors in Nepal.

kasta kasta pasu lai biddwan re!!!!!!

sati ko sarap.













and China is trying lure their companies to issue inside china.

I said, China is trying to lure, nor forcing them.

Savages in Nepal should learn the difference between luring and forcing.

In economics, forcing does not world, it has negative effect. Just like during baburam and yuraj K's time.

नेप्से भन्छ-सेयर बजारको घटबढ माग र आपूर्तिले गर्छ, अनलाइनले होइन


andho des ma kano raja



If there are people who support NEPSE's statement, come forward

Sanima giving cash means its EPS going way up this year.

Today, its PE ratio is 15,
End of this year, its PE ratio is going to be close to 10 if cash is given.

In the world, 10 PE ratio of good growing company is 5 or more times cheaper.


Learn to become smart investor. You want your profit/dividend in your pocket or someone else pocket. Value of company is determined by its income/eps.

Bonus wont increase value of company.

Almost all most valuable company hardly gives dividend, those who give dividend have very low PE ratio, and those which dont give have very high PE ration. In share market, we invest in growth not bonus or right. Bonus/Right is look. When will they learn.

पुँजी बजारमा सूचीकृत सेयरको चुक्ता मूल्य ३ खर्ब ५८ अर्ब, २१.२% ले वृद्धि


Does anybody know what is the total income/revenue of listed company? And their average PE ratio?

I think, average PE ratio of listed company in market/economy like Nepal should be 25-30.

Dont tell me I did not warn before??

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When I go to retail, I regularly see its owners giving money to agents of cooperative staff. They are always collecting money. Remember ponzi scheme, we realize ponzi scheme has collapsed only when it lost all its money or when people stop giving them money, till then we wont know. Why? cause people keep on giving them money so with that money they maintain their expenditure and with same money they return money of previous client.

Same is happening to cooperative. Cause people keep on depositing, that is why, we could not know if cooperative is bankrupt or not. Check their investment in - housing, retail and other business and we would know that cooperative has collapsed.

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काठमाडौंको कलंकीमा संचालनमा रहेको एक सहकारी संस्था लि.का अध्यक्ष लगायत सम्पूर्ण संचालकहरु यतिबेला सर्वसाधारणको करोडौं डुबाएर फरार भएका छन् । उनीहरुले आकर्षक ब्याज दिने भन्दै सर्वसाधारणहरुसंग करोडौं रुपैयाँ संकलन गरि हाल सम्पर्क बाहिर रहेको बताइएको छ ।

अहिले व्याजको त के कुरा साँवा पनि उठ्ने संकेत नदेखेपछि बचतकर्ताहरु छाँगाबाट खसेजस्तै भएका मात्र छैनन्, उनीहरुको रकम डुबेको भन्दै रुवाबासी नै सुरु भएको छ ।

यसरी संस्थाका सम्पूर्ण पदाधिकारीहरु फरार भएसंगै आफ्नो बचत डुबेको भन्दै केही बचतकर्ताहरु आक्रोसित मात्र भएका छैनन्, संचालक र अध्यक्षसहित सम्पूर्णलाई कारवाहीको माग गर्न उजुरी हाल्ने तयारीमा रहेको भनाई छ ।

If somebody wants huge interest, deposit in Cooperative. If they want safety, deposit in bfis, but not in CBL or NICA.

Since, communist and socialist like poor people, they have given priority to cooperative too. Poor people who want high interest should deposit their saving in cooperative and stop complaining about lower interest in bank.

Later dont tell me I did not warn. That day remember, communist/socialist recommended cooperative and I recommended no to cooperative.

Above example is just a tip of the iceberg. Wait and see.

NBA is a syndicate for fixing interest. HA. says, Social media expert.

Ape>

Well well well these cooperatives has major investment in stock market of Nepal not directly but indirectly in many of its promoters name. Their current investment is far bigger then the fund invested by mutual funds of Nepal. As on today most of their investment are in losses and if small compliance tightening is done by sahakari division we will see a strong sell off by them. In some of the sahakari dispute has already begun among promotors due to such investment which is incurring losses which will trigger sell of stock. As they are unable to renew old loans and depositer are now becoming withdrawee. Let's see how it shape up in near future. But the sign is khatra for Nepse.

सहकारीहरुसँग रु तीन खर्ब भन्दा बढी पूँजी छ ।

Its like 3 commercial bank.

When a few BFIs with less than 100b business were about to collapse, there was chaos in the market. What happens when cooperatives collapse with 300billion business?????


पछिल्लोपटक सहकारी संस्थाको लगानी घरजग्गा खरीद बिक्री, वैदेशिक रोजगार र अध्ययन, यातायात क्षेत्रमा सीमित हुन पुगेको छ ।
गाउँका सहकारीले छोराछोरीलाई विदेश पढाउन, रोजगारीमा पठाउन, विवाह, व्रतबन्ध र खेतबारी खरीद गर्न कार्यका लागि लगानी गर्ने गर्छन् ।


Cooperatives also invest in (on their own)- housing, hospitals, retail also.

I think most of their investment is in trouble.

Commie has been promoting cooperative, when cooperatives crashes, we should blame commie and advice depositor to go after commie with khukuri.

Biddwan economist yuraj k????? more we know about his views, bigger danger he turns out to be.

When I go to retail, I regularly see its owners giving money to agents of cooperative staff. They are always collecting money. Remember ponzi scheme, we realize ponzi scheme has collapsed only when it lost all its money or when people stop giving them money, till then we wont know. Why? cause people keep on giving them money so with that money they maintain their expenditure and with same money they return money of previous client.

Same is happening to cooperative. Cause people keep on depositing, that is why, we could not know if cooperative is bankrupt or not. Check their investment in - housing, retail and other business and we would know that cooperative has collapsed.


Good thing about cooperative is?
So called expert and wanna be expert think BFIs should invest only in so called productive sector. But I think, big money of BFIs should go to retail customer. With out retail lending, economy cant be run. Retail loan of cooperative must be running our economy.


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I have been advising people to invest most of their saving in shares, while other experts and biddwan yuraj K advises to invest in cooperative shares. Wait till cooperatives collapse then blame, who???

When I go to market, small retailers, keep on increasing their deposit in cooperative. Looks like they will need to receive elderly pension which comes from 55% flat tax I pay. And still, they never send me "Thank you very much" card.


Look what is stock market: Indian stock market offers diversification opportunity for Chinese investors- Global times article.

Class 3:

Types of shares:

We keep on hearing from so called expert, 8 class pass expert- "why do you invest in unproductive sector like Share, why dont you invest in productive sector???"

The thing is all companies' ownership are divided into shares, those include sahakari/cooperative too.

There are two types of shares- Private and public shares.

Private shares are not listed while public are listed. Best is public, it has many benefits to both company, shareholder, society but cost of managing public company/share is high that is why small company issue private share only.


Somebody tell, biddwan yuraj k and Oli, their favorite cooperate also issue shares. Even though they both have invested in shares, how could the not realized that they too are share holders.

They thought, listed is share and not listed is productive sector??????? Learn the basics of shares first before criticizing.


Investing in shares is investing in business. Share is just one of the names of ownership. Like lalpurja.


Dont make a fool out of yourself by criticizing share. If you dont know, just shut up. Or try to learn from master.

Class 2:

Meaning of owning a share or being shareholder: Meaning of being shareholder means being owner of the company.

If you have 1% share (1 of 100 shares), are become 1% owner of the company and 99% owner will be someone else.

Owning 1 share means, if company makes 100Rs profit, your right will be on 1Re.
If the company has 100Rs liability, you will have to pay only 1re, not 100.
Same is the voting right, you have 1% voting right and if you gather other 50% voting right group, your group will become majority.

he he Dubosi7 ji, let's teach them what share is, if Biddwan Yuraj K is really honest, then this education could help him and Nepal and NEPSE.

share is football of SEBON, NEPSE, NRB, FINANCE MINISTRY, IRN and other regulatory bodies. These regulators are MESSY and score goal (?) by kicking FOOTBALL/GENERAL INVESTORS.

Class 1:

Meaning of share is "dividing ownership of a company into smaller amount".

If company's issued capital is 100Rs and book value of share is 1re each, there will be 100 shares in the company.

If you invest 1Re, you will own 1 share. Which means, you will own 1% share in that company.

Turned out, reading hundreds of book of economics wont even teach you what share is???

Let me teach those self believed economic expert and wanna be social media economist, What Share is???