Forum

Budget!
""Policy departure- Golden boy"".





Good point- Increase of Govt salary. Making process of starting business easy,
Minimizing obstacles during construction of infrastructures. Remember, all of these have been
improving over years, nothing new.




Will all these bring in extraordinary investment??? No. I have posted few times in the past to tell 'why investors invest'.
But, when demand is created .........




Loan: Government is taking loan of 10% of GDP. And to acheive 7% growth. Are we murica??








Will Govt achieve 7% growth? Budget is around 450billion more than last year's budget. Which is around 7% of GDP.

Budget is 7% more of GDP than last year, Cooperative crisis is being solved, Bureaucracy's salary increase by 21%, tax up to 10lakh being reduced to 1% which will create demand ....

All above will create demand which should help in achieving GDP growth around 7%. I say, GDP growth should be far more than 7%, but this government is not creating environment for investment.
Investors are not confident, share investors are still not confident ....


Will consumer demand create vibrant investment in business??? Share investors are suppose to be the first one to gain confidence, who are still not confident. All the past trend has proven it- Share market reacts first.

If share market is not confident, economy has alwasy suffered.







Income tax reduction: Tax on up to 10lakh has been reduced to 1%. In Nepal, 10lakh is suppose to be upper middle class income. Where in the world, except for some gulf countries, do government impose just 1% tax on upper middle class?


My vision for income tax on majority of Nepalese would be 5-10% in short term and medium term; and 10-15% in mid and long term. And I would bring those people in that tax bracket by increaing their income.
And for most of the people 'middle income' would be 10-20lakh in mid term. Now, cause of this government, future government wont be able to put that 10lakh bracket into 5-10% tax rate.


And I have been saying, high income tax should not be more than 25%. This govt has brought it down to 29%. Good but I would have been creative. I would have brought down the tax through tax deduction mechanism like if you spend on domestic tourism, expenses in internal school/healthcare ... you get to deduce your tax up to 29%.







IT/AI: Looks like, this government's whole plan to take Nepal's economy into middle income with the help of AI/IT. That is a joke. BTW, how much foreign revenue, Nepal's IT generate annually??? 100billion???

If it is 100billion, that's too little to have any significant impact. Can it generate 1000Billion, in near future? I dont think so. So called AI, is going to destroy coding job. AI is going to destroy current IT jobs, so placing all the hope in AI/IT wont save us.

AI is going to destory jobs at- healthcare, legal, IT ...

US and India are already losing a lot of jobs in IT.







Micro taxation: From this budget, I found out, they have individual rate for individual product. You knwo who does that? Cons and corrupt. Those cons and corrupt and incompetents do that to confuse others and through confusion, bargain/hide corruption, to make it look like they are working hard infront of pakhe politician/finance minister/PM. Golden boy is following the same path. Wonder why?








Tax on products: I did not listen to the live budget speech. I relied on highlights from fake news. The last speech I listened was from Yuraj K's first budget speech, during that speech I found out he is a con, since then I stopped listening to the following budget speeches.


During this budget also, in the early hour, it seemed like, golden boy was going to reduce tax just like he had been promising. Next day, I found out, he has increased tax on almost everything. Golden boy is a con, just like everyone else. And incompetent.


You need make a difference in one page of the budget to build Nepal's economy. Those who change too much are just con and incompetent.











In conclusion: If confidence is gained in the economy 'till now, the confidence has not been gained'- due to huge increment in budget, tax reduction on income; solving of cooperative, share market and banking crisis ... would create demand and help economy in the short term and bring some investment. but wont bring in significant investment.


This budget is continuation of the past. It wont change the faith of Nepal's economy. This finance minister or PM has no idea about economy and character of Nepal's economy and no1 problem needed to be fixed in Nepal's economy 'which I have mentioned few time over years'.

Golden boy is just trying to copy western hype. And current western hype is AI, few years back, it was climate change/green fund.

My guess is, this budget or this finance minister will fix Nepal's economy for next 2/3 year. No long term fix.





Job creation: This budget will hardly create significant job. And hardly bring in any significant new investment. Current producers are sitting on idle capacity. When there is demand, their capacity will be utilized up to some point, not requiring new investment.



Inflation: Many are saying the budget will increase inflation. I am a critic regarding inflation. My view has been, Nepal's inflation is mostly affected by international/indian inflation.

Let's say, if most of the countries' inflation is 75% influenced by their monetary/fiscal policy then Nepal's
inflation is only 25% connected to Nepal's policies.

Let's wait till- Ashwin and Chairtra to prove my point. By Ashwin, current inflation will be fully priced with the reaction of Iran invasion and then we compare Ashwin's inflation rate with Chaitra's rate. And by Chaitra, inflation will have full impacted of this budget's policies. If the difference is more than 25% then, ya, Nepal's policy directly impact Nepal's inflation, if not, I am right and many are wrong.












""Policy departure- Golden boy"".
Where is policy departure? Does he even understand the meaning of Policy departure? Is he trying to con voters?

AI policy is continuation of IT policy, that is no policy departure.

Improving business condition is also continuation of past policy.

I have been talking about Nepal needing economic policy departure for fast 4-5 year- which is the no1 departure Nepal needs.

Changing title of Tax code is not policy departure.

Is there any patrakar or so called economic expert competent enough to ask him- how is your budget policy. a policy departure???







Only two can change the faith of Nepal's economy and other- 'SECOND TO GOD' that would be 'I' and China.

I shall do Budget analysis next week, only if Bull starts.

Otherwise, dont care.

निर्यातको ६० प्रतिशत हिस्सा 'री-एक्सपोर्ट': नाफा कि नोक्सान ?


Depends, like, if they import palm and extract oil using Nepal's electricity and export the oil then it's normal and the world does it too. That is how many big importer/exporters' balance sheet is huge.


2nd, if they are using 're-export' to money launder then, they should be jailed and fined 100 times.

Usually, those re-export go to India. India have been creating many problem in export from Nepal, for no good reason. And still, if they are 're-exporting' to money launder then, I believe RAW is involved and RAW is money laundering to send money to their assets in Nepal.

Ring road top speed:

Fix top speed on service lane to 40km/hr. (Strictly)
Fix top speed on middle lane to 80km/hr.

Why Balen has not been attending public programs??

Either, he is going after powerful organized criminals so he remembers Birendra, Madan Bhandari.


Or, he wants to achieve something big before attending public event.

You made that up. Professional investors go where the opportunity is and valuation favors.
Most of Latin America is cheaper than NEPSE and are commodity exporters. Indonesia is sub 12 PE.
Most of Central Asia exporting oil and minerals have banks trading at 6 PE and paying 10% dividend yield on the current stock price, not fake dividend ratio like NEPSE.

Even UK pension funds are 50% invested in the US markets. What are the world changing companies in NEPSE.

If government arrests share market manipulator who had been looting investors ... NEPSE crashes.

If government investigates some criminal case .... NEPSE crashes.

If government arrests some criminals ... NEPSE crashes.

Month before some policy date, to pressure authority ... NEPSE crashes.

If authority introduces some bad policy ... NEPSE crashes.

If authority introduces some good policy after few days ... NEPSE crashes.




Clearly, NEPSE needs new institutional investors, foreign investors.

NOW!!!

Simrik ji, All professional investors prefer developing economy 'share market' over matured economy.

Simrik ji, All professional investors prefer developing economy 'share market' over matured economy.

Simrik ji, All professional investors prefer developing economy 'share market' over matured economy.

Simrik ji, All professional investors prefer developing economy 'share market' over matured economy.

Simrik ji, All professional investors prefer developing economy 'share market' over matured economy.

Why would a foreign investor or even NRN invest in NEPSE?
There are developed markets around the world with cheaper PE and better fundamentals than NEPSE. What are the interesting world leading companies in NEPSE?

Accomplish below, and I would give you the solution to fix one major problem we have been facing.




Immediately implement all important share related policy within a month.




Loan through broker- implement it now.

Let NRN, foreign investor invest in Nepal- within a month.

Force brokers to increase their capital 'who dont have adequate capital as required 'most of the old brokers'- within 6 month or force them into merger.

Light weight Program and Policy of Balen Government. I have God level of Visions for Nepal.

Even good programs' approach is amateurish.





गौतमबुद्ध र पोखरा अन्तर्राष्ट्रिय विमानस्थललाई पूर्ण संचालन गर्न कूटनीतिक पहल गरिने


- गौतमबुद्ध विमानस्थल- Hand that airport management over to Indian management recommended by Indian govt. (Who is that mor0n bureaucracies/politicians who decided to build int airport close to the border?)

- पोखरा अन्तर्राष्ट्रिय विमानस्थललाई- Start new destinations flights: Moscow- Pokhara, Vietnam- Pokhara, etc.

विद्यार्थी संगठन खारेज नगर्न सर्वोच्चको आदेश


- Let individual college/School decide if they want union or not, political or non political union. Through Refrendum.

धितोपत्र बोर्डको अध्यक्ष:

Likes of R ko c बम बहादुर मिश्र, who hated Share market now wants to become Security Board Chief. Who destroyed Share market, economy - which have been in coma for last 5 year.

Katna parne RkoC, what is he trying to do???


Ak AK alchina bureaucracy should have been hung and burnt alive. During protest, I was sad, no body burnt alive Bureaucrats. They only went after Politicians and police.


Balen government has already made a huge blunder by appointing alchina, incompetent, who destroyed Neapl- Bhatta as National Planning Commission Chief. What kind of revolution is this???




There are two types of incompetent individuals 'bureaucrats, politicians'- One does nothing and other is destructive.




I am SECOND TO GOD!

धितोपत्र बोर्डको अध्यक्ष सिफारिस समितिबाट डा. गुणाकर भट्टको राजीनामा


- Why did you give Bhatta power to chose Share Market boss, at the first place? How could a person who has zero understanding of Share market can chose the boss who will be managing the market. Even worse, Bhatta could be anti Share market. Jelous alchia bahun type.





Fake news said, his brother is one of the candidate. I am sure, his brother is alchina anti Share market too 'whom I have never heard of before'. Ignore him for the post or any future government post, cause he could be alchina just like his brother.





Bhatta has proven agian few days about with his interview or speech that he is incompetent and alchina. I would post my analysis about his views, in a few minute.


Tell me, Bhatta was recommended by FM Wagle for 'National Planning Commission' Chair. Everyone associated with FM Wagle are alchina, incompetent, dalal. Everyone whom he will bring into the government will be like Bhatta 'alchina bahun'.

ANT ji,


I wanted Balen to succeed, I even wanted Wagle FM to succeed. But sign does not look good. And even worse, result has been pretty bad.

They dont know priority and even worse, good policy/action are being destroyed by their wrong, homework less approach.


About budget;

Share market- government of the past has already past law, government just need to implement them. No need to wait for the budget. Wagle and Balen are wasting valuable time.



Economy- Trust me, Wagle has no idea about economy or economy of Nepal. He, few days ago said, next budget will be Business/private sector friendly.

Which is very very important, but, it wont change the fate of the economy of Nepal. Bad business policy would prevent investment, good business policy alone wont bring in enough investment.

Like, let's say, Wagle bring in great business policy, then what? Open more Cement factory, open more hotels, build more cable-car ... Nepal has over supply problem, not the production problem in all sectors we have today. They talk about increasing hydro production, but who is going to consume it. Cause of lack of market, government kept on declining to sign PPA.





I have more than 8000 posts at Shareforum. In those 8000+ posts I believe in around 10 post, I have disclosed the no1 'the most important policy' Nepal should have to change the economic fate of Nepal. Those who desperately need to succeed 'Balen/Wagle/RSP' can go through those 8000+ posts to find those 10 posts.

why so much negativity
be positive rising ji
we can hope we will get something better from coming up jestha 15 budget

I did say, no party should get majority.

I am right, like always.





I said, sanak of Balen will be bad for economy and foreign policy.

I am right, like always.





I said FM Wagle is incompetent, negative individual who understand nothing about economy.

I am right, like always.





The world is utilizing my god level brain, but pakehs "One of the lowest IQ' in Nepal dont even know, I exist and I am from Nepal.

Why Private sector still has not visited Rabi and Balen to inform them that 'Economy and Share market' have been in coma for last 5 year?


Tell them, Economy and Share market need 'Balen's sanak' through which he would order Finance minister to fix 'Economy and Share market which have been in coma for last 5 year' within 24 hour, just like his other sanaks.



Is not it amazing, Balen has all the nanaks, but not the most important one.


It's the economy stupid! Somebody tell balen about this phrase.



It does not matter, even if he fixes everything but destroy economy, he and his party is done.


FM wagle is the biggest weakness and the biggest curse of this government. Who will fail both Balen and RSP.

Actions which could have been taken later are being pushed immediately.

And actions which should have been taken immediately 'or should I say 4 year ago' are being ignored.



Economy, share market have been in coma for 5 year now. And Government should have taken actions to fix it now 'or should I say 4 year ago' are still being ignored. They dont even know, economy, share market are in deep crisis.


And then actions 'like every actions govt have taken for last few weeks' which can be taken in 6 month, 3 year are now being taken in hurry.




Leader is born, leaders are not made!

भन्सारमा सामान रोकिएपछि सरकार पछि हट्यो: अब बजारमा पठाउनुअघि गोदाममै एमआरपी टाँस्न पाइने



Sanak le chale ko des.

But, is not it amazing, our economy, share market have been in coma for last 5 year, but Balen does not get sanak to fix them in 24 hour.


What does that mean? Why he does not get right sanak.




Leaders are born, not made!




Sati ko sarap. We threw one incompetent, which are now being replaced by another incompetent.

राजदूत बन्न अब खुल्ला प्रतिस्पर्धा, भागबन्डाको सिन्डिकेट तोडिने



खुल्ला प्रतिस्पर्धा- This is another tamasa has been going around for years now. So you are going to judge individual by taking exam instead of judging from their 15-20 year performance???

And BTW, what is going to be the questions? And who is going to check the answer sheet.

Will the person making those questions and check the answer sheets will be selected through exam too??? Funny.

Or some moron will be judging 'potential experts'. Funny.


Trust me. Through exam, you will only select cons, gafadi.





Decades back, I floated the Idea that 'one or few interview wont be enough to judge a person. It takes long process'.

Pakhes in Nepal cant see my 'God level intelligence'. Guess what Google and other international organization began to follow such recruitment process.



Tamasa.

Old tamasa gone. New tamasa entered.





Funny, Incompetents are going be judging experts. Tell you a secret, even exam paper of 2nd grade math exam is examined by math expert. But in Nepal, dumb judge experts. Morons in social media, fake news give 'certificate of expertise to others, who go on to run Nepal'.

And this government too have selected many so called expert based on those certificate provided by morons in social media, fake news .... just like our Finance minister.