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I believe it is a good news.

Even better news- communist party has introduced shadow govt to watch over minister. Hope, one idiot sanki wont be able to determine our faith.

Is it a good news for MARKET?
अब नसुध्रिने मन्त्रीको टिकट काटिन्छ-योगेश भट्टराई

How much new money will enter in 2 month??

Minimum cash flow into NEPSE in 2 month be:
- Even if CIT go slow in two month they may invest: 5 billion (in this rate it will take 16 mth to invest 40 billion)

- 10 billion from margin loan from broker.

- 5 billion from new mutual fund which are in pending.

- 2/3 billion from existing mutual fund.

(That's minimum, insurance should invest heavily too).

So total= 17 billion. So in 40 days they need to invest 42 crore per day. Which is not possible.


How about invest from public, institutional investor, 1000 gang?


To clean short term trader, 5 billion is enough. And 5 crore per day from desperate share holder means 2 billion more in 2 month. So 7 billion is enough to clear shares.

Now there remains, 10 billion. Then comes mid term investor. I dont think they will sell below 1500. They may be holding shares worth 25 billion.

So how long till NEPSE reach 1500?
2 week, 5 week, 10 week?????

Tic Toc

Friends, it is relatively easy to make 200 from 1.
When the size of your investment increase then it become more difficult to achieve the same gain ratio, this is what i ve learnt in my investment career. Same GUY will not have same gain ratio in future when his pocket size inflate.
And another important facet, as your age advances RISK APPETITE decline and so is your profit.
It is not so important how many times you earn. More important is r u able to save what u ve earn.
It all comes with experience.

That kid is a genius. Pure knowledge, pure wealth for investment, and purely perfect timing.

Are you even listening "He who must not be named"? No mafia, no media control, no manipulation. That is how it must be done.

https://www.sharesansar.com/newsdetail/200-times-portfolio-growth-in-7-years-23-year-old-prodigy-in-nepali-stock-market-interview-with-sijan-bajracharya

WT Heck? 200 times in last 7 yrs.

I should die now.

I dont want to talk about individual company especially negativity.

Truth is, In NEPSE there are many good companies and some are pretty bad. Some of them may never give dividend in their life time. Whose PE ratio is suppose to be 1. and price should be 1 too.


So you have to choose right ones.

yes, that is what happens in land too.

But, return on land from rent is very low.


and since there is land culture in Nepal that is why land price is high even when return from rent is very low.

In Nepal, there are lot of black money and those who have job abroad makes a lot of money than the price of land in Nepal, they pay high, which is another reason land price keeps on growing when rent from land is not growing much.


Lately, land price is out of the capacity of nepalese, so lately, dalals buy large plot of land and divide it into smaller piece and sell at higher price.

Today, its hard to sell big piece of land cause people cant afford it.

Return on land from rent is very low, some said less than 1%. that is why Stock is the best in Nepal.

Land, gold, cash should be bought in small quantity only for security in case yuraj k shows sanak.

RBCL ko pani yestai vako haina ra?

Rising sun ji,
Isn't that like saying i will buy a land at 1lakh and since we are in developing economy i will look for capital appreciation rather than return on equity ... ie somebody else will buy at 2 lakh... and the buyer will also seek to sell at 4 lakh and so on .... when will it stop?

How to make decision while investing?

In civilized world, they estimate 10 yr return and identify right PR ratio for that stock.

In Nepal, we should at least estimate 5 year return.

We can compare return in stock with interest rate only in developed countries, even that country, economy push for inflation and increase economy which reflect in company earning too.

In developed countries, some industry cant grow that is why their PE ratio is very low and which has growth prospect has high PE ratio.

In stock, we want return from capital gain, not dividend. In outside Nepal, growing company usually dont give any dividend, they re invest it in same or other business and still their rate is huge.

Let's talk about Nepal:
In Nepal, max interest rate now is 9.25%. So stock need to give at least 12% return.

Let's calculate 5 year return: If return on interest rate for five year is 9.25%/year, in 5th year, Return should be 155%.


Let's calculate return for stock which average growth is 15% for 5 year:
- if dividend is 100 and if there is no growth then its price should be (if we want 12% return)= 833 Rs.
- if growth is 15% for 5 year, its 5th year dividend will be 200. So price should be 1700 in 5th year.
So how much are you willing to pay today, 1200-1400??? If you pay 1400, its PE ratio would be 14.

PE ratio of company which has zero growth be 8.3.
PE ratio of company which has 15% growth be 14
PE ratio of company which has 25% growth be ?????
PE ratio of company which has 35% growth be ????

So in stock, we expect return from capital gain, not dividend. In the world, those companies which has not given any dividend for decades but have high growth is priced the most.

And we also have to assume, in future, when Nepal is more developed, interest on FD will diminish significantly. So it will increase PE ratio too.

So better start investing for long term.

If interest rate falls to 6% then price should increase 30%. So we have to consider future interest rate while calculating PE ratio too.

If they want to build Nepal, Interest rate should be around 8% on loan, so if loan's rate is 8%, how much rate will be on FD? 4%????


Main return from stock is capital gain, not dividend. But Capital gain is determined by present and future income of the company as well as FD rate.

It was wrong of people to consider current FD rate, which is not sustainable, if this rate go on for another 4/5 year, BFis will collapse due to NPL. But our CEO who take crore in salary go around telling Interest rate wont fall for 4/5 year. They cant even see that if interest rate remain this high for another few year, BFIs will collapse.



Above is my rough calculation.


And since, there is some risk that is why you have to diversify your investment. And you expect slightly higher return on stock than in FD.

Also In FD we put cash. Value of cash always diminish which means there is inflation.

And in stock, when there is inflation, company will make more profit so value of your stock will increase with will cross inflation.

Ok please reply rising sun ji
for

https://forum.sharesansar.com/topic.php?id=5792

Deepak ji admits "My work is over now" and bids goodbye.

Please give a buzz when you return. At least we will know some Bears are cooking.

Well deepak ji,

It was good having your presence in this forum. Pls come back after 2nd quater reports.

I gladly accept your wish that portfolio grows by 5x.

Thanks.

Like i said in my post, "2019 PREDICTION ASSUMPTION ANALYSIS" on DECEMBER 02, 2018 (long before this surge)

Invested 50% by than and investing is still going on
Portfolio has increased impressively

Not making an exit so soon
And Big Money still to be in the market


....Baki Ishwor Ko Leela...

Well Somebody ji we don't look for hefty Profits like other people in the forum do.

Our Return beating the Bank Interest rate is enough for Us.

Hope you guys have been make killing Money on NEPSE !!

By Yesterday 100% Exit of our Long term bet, we now hold almost 0% in NEPSE Stocks !!

Now you guys ride the bulls and make the killing Money !!

Make your Portfolio value 2X, 3X & 5X.

Time to say Good Bye till Q2 are Published. My Work is Over Now !!

Happy Investment !!

BISHNU PRASAD BASYAL AND CO. KO FOLLOWER HARU KO HARI BIJOG HOLA JASTO PO DEKHIYO, NEPSE 1300 NAPUGI CORRECTION PANI HOLA JASTO DEKHINNA.

Deepak has no time to reply. He must be busy counting his profits (buy 1118 and sold 1150-1175 re)

Wow LBS ji, what is the investment capacity of your group. We need about 20 billion till NRN enters.

Yes, deepak ji, you can talk about your buying in this thread till 2019-2-14. This time, you can talk about bull.





One step backward, 5 Step forward:

- Nepal Rastra Bank issues new circular for the BFIs; Risk weight decreases for share loan, Bonus and rights to be considered for margin loans and more

- Employee Provident Fund reports increased fund size to Rs 3.01 kharba in Ashwin of FY 2075/76; Investment in shares form 1.78% of total funds ------------- just under 2% invested in shares. They can invest 25%. So around 70 billion they need to invest. But how, if they dont invest heavily in this low. In the civilized world, pension fund's main investment area is share.

- केन्द्रीय बैंकले वाणिज्य बैंकहरूलाई ब्रोक्रर सेवा दिन यस्तो गर्यो नीतिगत व्यवस्था

- राष्ट्र बैंकले रिस्क वेटेज १०० मा झार्यो, शेयर धितोकर्जाको सीमा ६५ प्रतिशत

- बैंकहरुले प्राथमिक पुँजीको ४०% सम्म सेयर धितोकर्जा प्रवाह गर्न सक्ने, अब मार्जिन ट्रेडिङ पनि

- मार्जिन कलमा पनि सहुलियत

Tic Toc

Deepak ji ko thread lai aba Tata bye bye garau. Next cycle ma feri tesaima continue garnu hola.

Baru yesma dainik update dinus. Kati money infuse vayo, Kati exit vayo.

Daily updates and next resistance level vandai janu hola.

Perfect cup & handle formation in NEPSE curve. A conformation singal of
upward trend in market. Be happy with your iinvestment .

Today's development:

- कार्यदलको सुझाव अक्षरंश पालना गर्ने गभर्नरको बचन, भने='अब बजार सुधार हुन्छ'

- One more loan gateway to commercial banks: Loans can now be undertaken in Indian currency

- बाणिज्य बैंकसँग सहायक कम्पनी नभए पनि अहिले नै ब्रोकर सेवा दिनसक्ने

- बैंक ब्याजदर घट्न थाल्यो, अब पूँजीबजार पनि गतिशिल हुन्छ : गभर्नर


Tic Toc

BFIs' profit is about to grow by 17billion if Fake News is not lying.

Boom boom.

Looks like fake news fooled themselves by their won lies that is why they sold their long term shares yesterday.


NEPSE boom boom.

Must be smoking weeds while writing. Isnt he the same dude who wrote that Nepse will reach 2100 but market crashed to 1118 ?

प्राविधिक प्रक्षेपण: नेप्से चार हप्ताभित्र ६१.८% र बाह्र हप्ताभित्र १६१.८% ले बढ्नसक्ने - "TUKKE BLUFF'
Khutruke traders existence in the market will never allow the BIG BULL.