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Pujibhairab ji, Since you know SHPC well, could you tell me about the hydro SHPC acquired? Is the acquired hydro complete, started production? If completed, has its income included in second qtr BS of SHPC?

RisingSunJee
1 - You Bought at the wrong time.
2 - When you bought - it was sell time. And 400 & most important the 300 level was buy time. The number of shares will fairly triple if sell was made around 1100 and bought at around 300/400.
3 - Because at the higher level (Board Level & Promoter Level) it was already confirm that shares will be quickly converted for sale in secondary market. And that sale will push the price down. Sale was made to put the same money in another two hydropower project by the same set of promoters.
4 - Few big names in the market who wanted to maintain the price level at around 700/800 after right shares -they failed but bought considerably thinking the price wont go below 410. However later they also pushed the prices down to 300 level to absorb the shares further as buying at 410 didnt went good due to extreme selling pressure.
5 - Selling pressure from the converted promoter shares has come an end with last lot of 50,000 kittas already being sold.
6 - Above 400 range price level is prominent.
5 - At time of next declaration which is within Bhadra, further 100 to 200 surge is prominent..

....Before Investing, its essential to know the inside story.....Research, Analyse and Invest......Baki Ishwor Ko Leela.....

I got CHCL at a lot higher price.

I bought SHPC @1100 (250 from IPO), hoping it will compete with CHCL after price adjustment, heard of 25B to right share too.

Then sold with 2lakh in loss. then bought back last week @ 340 (4lakh discount), bought back around 4k.

This is long term investment. want to see 500/600 very soon and grow with time.

...SHPC It was around 320....Perfect time to invest.....SHPC picking up the tunes....This time AGM shall be within Bhadra (Notice to come 21 days before AGM) and Board will not disappoint the shareholders this time....Something will definitely come.....And FOR NOW it should definitely cross 400 easily....

......Baki Ishwor Ko Leela....

Dear Pujibhairab jee,

Don't know about your background but you seem to have good knack of the hydro industry. Any thoughts about the proposal to consolidate sister companies of Sanima Hydropower into a single company as proposed and perhaps decided in the latest AGM. I am not discounting the benefits that accrue from it, for example, efficiency in operating a company with various projects rather than different companies, however, wonder if without good oversight, there could be manipulation in terms of valuation of merged companies!

I believe this isn't for the scheme like that of Satyam in India but I just wonder why in the first place different proposed and / or ongoing projects were registered as separate company and now being consolidated.

pujibhairab ji,

i think by the time SHPC will give any sort of dividend (after 3-4 yrs), chilime would have already give 40-50% bonus. So i dont think CHCL is expensive now.

pujibhairab sir...what are the best life insurances to be bought in the current scenario??

Thank you very much Puji Bhairav sir!

Im so happy for your analysis...

To Cautious Trade

NGBBL
1 - NGBBL will undoubtedly increase. I have preferred NGBBL since JambForm and it was around 340. and it reached 1100 with continous circuit for 1 week and remained at 900 range and came back to 430 and went back to 1000 range and came back to 600 and went back to 816 and now again in 500 range. This stock has been wow.

2 - It will maintain eps of 27 to 32 now. As soon as interest rate level goes down its EPS will be above 40.

3 - Right shares will come very soon.

4 - BEST THING ABOUT NGBBL IS THAT IT IS GOVT MFI & GOVT BANKS GIVE LOANS AT CHEAP RATE. FOR EXAMPLE, RASTRIYA BANIJYA BANK HAS GIVEN 50/60 CR AT 4/5% INTEREST.

5 - SUPPLY IS ALSO LOW. Around 20 lakhs kittas. And around 18 lakhs kittas have already been traded at above 700 and over 10 lakhs over 900.

6 - NO PROMOTER CONVERSION. Its a govt owned & NRB owned.


NBL
1 - Dividend is sure, very soon. As the bank has no accumulated loss from POUSH 2074.

2 - Big Groups are on the Buys Side.

3 - Safest, Strongest, Great Fundamentals

4 - After NABIL, its RBB and after RBB its NBL. All EPS in 40 Range.
NIB EPS is below 35. And price is expensive.
Fundamentals & Price prefer NBL over NIB.


IGI
1 - This insurance company has potential.

2 - IME Group Back up will help it transform itself

3 - FPO in near future.

4 - Only 20% share (10.8 Lakhs Kittas) in market. Majority of shares already on one side.


PRABHU
1 - They are doing promoter conversion of 16.66% soon.

2 - So Lets not get into it as prices may come down

3 - Cash Dividend from 2074/2075 profit. Nothing will come from 2073/2074 profit (AGM Pending).


SHPC
1 - Chilime is expensive in secondary market

2 - Share supply of chilime is more than that of SHPC.
Even though promoter shares of SHPC has become public, the promoter arent selling their initial major stake. With major stake constant supply of SHPC is less than Chilime.

3 - This has to increase and make some recovery. Already mentioned why.


Perhaps,
Your selection of NGBBL, NBL, IGI, SHPC is great.
In case of Prabhu, conversion can hamper the equation.
In case of FOWAD, its expensive.
I dont analyse hotel industry.
Dont go expensive. Go for Cheap + Strong Scrips

....MAKE INFORMED DECISION......BAKI ISHWOR KO LEELA...

SHPC will take few yrs to provide any sort of dividend. Where as CHCL will keep on giving bonus

Among the List of shares mentioned below i like FOWAD, NIB, PRVU, THESE I GUESS ARE QUALITY STOCKS TO PICK UP !!

I like Puji Bhairav!!

I like

NGGBL

SHPC

NBL

PRVU

as you like guru!!!

How you analyse TRH OHL FOWAD ????

How worthy are GILB IGI?

What could be the ultimate target of RBCL ?

NIB????

For Hydro, following are notable points,


As Initial Promoter
1 - Promoter share of good hydro (great technical feature + rich/strong/highly ethical promoters) at Rs 100 is best. Waiting period is around 4/5 years after generation licence or 7/8 years after survey licence. After commercial operation return is 15%/20% and after break even (after 6/7 years of commercial operation) the return is 50% to 60%.


Purchasing in Secondary Market - CHILIME
1 - Chilime will have 189 MW after 2 years. They are Rasuwagadhi Hydropower (111 MW), Senjen (42.5 MW), Upper Senjen (14.5 MW) and Madhya Bhotekoshi (102 MW) and Chilime (22MW).

2 - Rs 725 is the market price as of today.


Purchasing in Secondary Market - SANIMA MAI HYDRO POWER
1 - SHPC will have 192 MW after 4 years. They are Lower Likhu (28 MW), Middle Tamor (52.5 MW), Upper Mailung & Mailung B (21.5 MW) and Jum Khola (62 MW) and Sanima Mai & Cascade (29MW). SHPC has further generation (Not Survey) licence of Upper Tamor (285MW). And company expects to complete it another 6 years.

2 - Rs 330 is the market price as of today.

Which To Buy?
Both SHPC & Chilime are remarkable good companies.
When both companies are good, the decision is influenced by its price,
1 - SHPC may be a great buy because its price down is abnormal (Price went down as promoter sold their portion) and it can be expected that it's price level may make some recovery.
2- SHPC is also cheap, 54% cheaper than Chilime in Secondary Market.
3 - The flow of Bonus is yet to come which will push the cost of purchase down. Chilime has given 160% bonus shares (from 2067 to 2074) and cash dividend since beginning (around 357% from 2060 to 2074) Such flow of cash and bonus from SHPC can be expected to begin from next year.

.....Make informed Decisions....Baki Ishwor Ko Leela....